黄安伟2025年7月7日上个月，在以色列对德黑兰的袭击中，一辆救护车被焚毁。尽管表面上显得团结，俄罗斯、中国和朝鲜在伊朗与以色列的战争期间，以及美国轰炸伊朗核设施后，并未迅速援助伊朗。 Arash Khamooshi for The New York TimesWhen Russia enlisted the aid of China, North Korea and Iran in its war against Ukraine, some American and British officials began talking about a new “axis.”当俄罗斯在对乌克兰的战争中争取到中国、朝鲜和伊朗的援助时，一些美国和英国官员开始谈论一个新的“轴心”。It appeared that the four countries were united by anger, authoritarianism and animus against the United States and its allies.这四个国家似乎因愤怒、威权体制以及对美国及其盟友的敌意而走到了一起。But Iran’s sales of drones and ballistic missiles to Russia for its war and oil shipped to China did not pay off when it mattered, raising doubts about unity among the nations.但伊朗向俄罗斯出售无人机和弹道导弹用于战争、向中国出口石油等行为在关键时刻并未带来回报，这引发了人们对这几个国家之间团结程度的质疑。None of the other three states rushed to aid Iran during its war with Israel or when U.S. forces bombed Iranian nuclear sites. China and Russia, by far the two most powerful countries among the four, issued pro forma denunciations of the American actions but did not lift a finger to materially help Iran.在伊朗与以色列交战或美国轰炸伊朗核设施时，其他三国都没有迅速提供援助。中国和俄罗斯——这四国中最强大的两个国家——只是象征性地谴责了美方行动，并未采取任何实际行动来支持伊朗。“The reality of this conflict turned out to be that Russia and China didn’t run to Iran’s rescue,” said Alexander Gabuev, the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “That just exposes the limitations of the whole ‘axis’ idea.”“这场冲突的现实是，俄罗斯和中国并没有赶去帮助伊朗，”卡内基俄罗斯欧亚中心主任亚历山大·加布耶夫说道。“这恰恰暴露了整个‘轴心’概念的局限性。”“Each of them is pretty selfish and doesn’t want to get embroiled in the wars of others,” he added. “These are very different wars and different sets of conflicts. The countries are not necessarily sharing the same structures and values and institutional links the same way the U.S. and its allies do.”“他们每一个国家都自谋私利，并不想卷入他国的战争，”他补充道。“这些战争本质上非常不同，涉及的冲突也各不相同。这些国家也不像美国及其盟友那样共享相同的体系、价值观和制度纽带。”The four nations all have autocratic systems and harbor hostility toward the United States, which traditionally has aimed to weaken them and challenge their legitimacy. The countries also have some strategic ties and have undermined U.S.-led economic sanctions by doing commerce and sharing weapons technology with one another.这四个国家都实行威权体制，并对美国怀有敌意，而美国历来致力于削弱这些国家的力量并质疑它们的合法性。这些国家之间也存在一定的战略联系，并通过军事技术共享与贸易往来构建战略协作关系，以突破美国主导的经济制裁。“Yes, there is probably a very modest amount of coordination among China, North Korea, Iran and Russia — in the sense that they talk with each other and have some of the same frustrations with the United States or with the West,” said Michael Kimmage, a history professor at Catholic University of America and a former State Department official who has written a book on the war in Ukraine.“是的，中国、朝鲜、伊朗和俄罗斯之间可能确实存在一些非常有限的协调——也就是说，他们彼此之间有沟通，并在对美国或西方的不满方面有一些共同点，”曾任国务院官员的美国天主教大学历史学教授、乌克兰战争专著作者迈克尔·金梅奇表示。“But it’s not particularly meaningful,” he added.“但这并没有太大意义，”他补充道。Among the nations, only Russia and North Korea have a mutual defense treaty. Besides providing weapons to Russia, North Korea has sent more than 14,000 troops to fight alongside the Russians against Ukrainian forces.在这几个国家中，只有俄罗斯和朝鲜签有共同防御条约。除了向俄罗斯提供武器外，朝鲜还派出了超过1.4万名士兵，与俄军共同对抗乌克兰部队。Their bond is rooted in a shared Communist past and the anti-American war on the Korean Peninsula from 1950 to 1953, in which Mao’s China also took part.俄朝纽带根植于共同的共产主义历史，以及1950年至1953年在朝鲜半岛进行的反美战争，当时毛泽东领导下的中国也参与了这场战争。今年4月，俄罗斯总统普京与朝鲜领导人金正恩举行会晤的新闻画面。除了向俄罗斯提供武器外，朝鲜还派遣了超过1.4万名士兵协助俄军对抗乌克兰部队。That history also accounts for the close ties between China and Russia, one of the most consequential bilateral relationships for the U.S. government and much of the world. The leaders of the two nations have forged a personal bond over many years, and their governments announced that they had a “no limits” partnership just weeks before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.这段历史也解释了中俄之间的紧密关系，这是美国政府乃至世界许多国家都极为关注的一个关键双边关系。两国领导人多年来建立了私谊，而就在俄罗斯于2022年2月全面入侵乌克兰前几周，两国政府还宣布建立“无止境”的伙伴关系。China still sees value in abiding by some of the international norms promoted by a pre-Trump America and democratic nations, and it has refrained from sending substantial arms aid to Russia during the war. But it has helped to rebuild Russia’s defense industrial base, U.S. officials said, and it continues to be one of the biggest buyers of Russian oil.中国仍然珍视特朗普执政前美国与民主国家推动的一些国际规范，并且在战争期间避免向俄罗斯提供大量军事援助。但美国官员表示，中国确实帮助俄罗斯重建了国防工业基础，并且仍然是俄罗斯石油的最大买家之一。Russia and Iran have never had that type of relationship.而俄罗斯和伊朗之间从未建立过那种关系。One issue is religion. Iran is a theocracy with the type of ruling body that the other three secular, traditionally socialist nations regard with suspicion. Both Russia and China view the spread of Islamic fundamentalism with alarm. Xi Jinping, China’s leader, has taken extreme measures against even moderate Muslims, suppressing some Islamic practices among ethnic Uyghurs and Kazakhs in his country’s northwest.其中一个问题是宗教。伊朗是一个神权国家，其执政模式令其他三个世俗的、传统上信奉社会主义的国家心存疑虑。俄罗斯和中国都对伊斯兰原教旨主义的传播感到警惕。中国领导人习近平对待即便是温和的穆斯林也采取了极端措施，在中国西北部的维吾尔族和哈萨克族中压制一些伊斯兰教的习俗。“There are no shared values beyond vague platitudes about the ‘multipolar world order,’ and there are quite a few contradictions,” said Sergey Radchenko, a Cold War historian at Johns Hopkins University. “Putin indicated what they are: His relationships with Iran’s neighbors, including Israel and the Arab states, are too important to sacrifice on the altar of Russian-Iranian friendship.”“除了关于‘多极世界秩序’的模糊套话之外，他们之间并没有共同的价值观，反而存在不少矛盾，”约翰霍普金斯大学冷战历史学家谢尔盖·拉德琴科说道。“普京已经表明了他们的矛盾所在：他与伊朗邻国——包括以色列和阿拉伯国家——的关系对他来说太重要了，不愿为俄伊友谊牺牲这些关系。”“He is a cynical manipulator interested only in his strategic interests, and if this means throwing Iran under the bus, then he is prepared to do this,” Mr. Radchenko added. “To be sure, the feeling is fully reciprocated in Tehran.”“他是个冷酷的操纵者，只关心自己的战略利益，必要时抛弃伊朗也在所不惜，”拉德琴科还表示。“可以肯定的是，德黑兰对此心知肚明。”Mr. Putin and President Trump spoke about the Israel-Iran war on June 14, and Mr. Putin offered to mediate. Afterward, Mr. Putin said publicly that Russia had helped Iran build a nuclear power plant and was assisting with two more reactors.普京与特朗普于6月14日就以色列与伊朗的战争进行了交谈，普京提出愿意进行调解。随后，普京公开表示，俄罗斯曾帮助伊朗建造了一座核电站，并正在协助建设另外两个反应堆。While he spoke of Russia’s partnership with Iran, he signaled a reluctance to commit to aiding the country in the war.尽管他谈及俄罗斯与伊朗的伙伴关系，但他也暗示不愿意承诺在战争中援助伊朗。Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, met with Mr. Putin in Moscow on June 23, a day after the U.S. airstrikes on Iran, but the Russian summary of the meeting had little beyond the usual expressions of diplomatic support. That day, Iran carried out a symbolic missile attack on a U.S. military base in Qatar and then agreed to a cease-fire with Israel and the United States.6月23日，也就是美国空袭伊朗的第二天，伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇在莫斯科与普京会晤，但俄罗斯方面对会议纪要除了一些惯常的表示支持的外交辞令外，几乎没有更多实质内容。当天，伊朗对位于卡塔尔的美国军事基地进行了象征性导弹袭击，随后同意与以色列和美国达成停火协议。China also watched from the stands as the crisis unfolded.中国在这场危机爆发时也采取了观望的态度。俄罗斯国家媒体发布的一张照片显示，美国袭击伊朗核设施次日，普京会见了伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇。Mr. Xi said that all sides “should work to de-escalate the conflict.” And when Mr. Trump ordered the American strikes on Iran, China said it strongly condemned the attacks and accused the United States of violating the United Nations Charter.习近平表示，各方“应努力实现冲突降级”。当特朗普下令对伊朗发动美国空袭时，中国强烈谴责了这次攻击，并指责美国违反了《联合国宪章》。But like Russia, China did not send material support to Iran. Although China does sometimes take an official position on conflicts in the region, it also often tries to appear noncommittal in order to balance interests. For years, it has been building up its ties to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two rivals of Iran. Saudi Arabia, like Iran, is a big oil exporter to China.但和俄罗斯一样，中国并未向伊朗提供实质性支持。尽管中国有时会对该地区的冲突表明官方立场，但它也常常试图保持模糊，以平衡各方利益。多年来，中国一直在加强与沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国的关系，而这两个国家是伊朗的竞争对手。沙特阿拉伯和伊朗一样，是中国主要的石油出口国。An extended regional war would jeopardize China’s oil imports from those countries, so it seeks to quell hostilities rather than stoke them.一场持续的区域战争将危及中国从这些国家的石油进口，因此中国寻求平息敌对行动，而非助长冲突。China’s aim of being a neutral broker in the Middle East became evident in March 2023, when it helped finalize a diplomatic rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia.中国作为中东地区中立调解者的目标在2023年3月显现出来，当时它促成了伊朗与沙特阿拉伯之间的外交和解。China also used that opportunity to develop closer ties with Iran’s partner in the region, Syria, ruled then by Bashar al-Assad.中国也借此机会深化了与伊朗在该地区的合作伙伴——当时由巴沙尔·阿萨德统治的叙利亚的关系。That was a period when China’s influence in the Middle East was at a peak, said Enrico Fardella, a professor at the University of Naples “L’Orientale” who has taught at Peking University and studies China’s foreign policy. Now, with Iran weakened by the war and Mr. Assad overthrown by rebels, China is treading carefully around the Iran-Israel conflict to see which governments and political groups or militias in the region emerge as the most powerful.那是中国在中东影响力达到巅峰的时期，那不勒斯东方大学教授、曾在北京大学任教并研究中国外交政策的恩里科·法尔德拉说道。如今，随着伊朗因战争而实力受损，阿萨德被叛军推翻，中国在伊朗与以色列的冲突中正谨慎行事，观察该地区哪些政府、政治团体或民兵势力将成为最有影响力的力量。“While Beijing has a vested interest in promoting a cease-fire and post-conflict stabilization, its current low-profile diplomacy suggests limited confidence in its ability to influence events,” Mr. Fardella said in a text message. “As in post-Assad Syria, China may once again adopt a wait-and-see strategy, carefully repositioning itself to salvage influence in a rapidly shifting post-conflict landscape.”“虽然北京有促进停火和战后稳定的既得利益，但其目前低调的外交态度表明，中国对自身影响局势的能力信心有限，”法尔德拉在短信中表示。“正如对阿萨德下台后的叙利亚一样，中国可能再次采取观望策略，谨慎调整立场，以便在迅速变化的战后局势中挽回影响力。”Chinese officials are also aware that Iran, like North Korea, is an isolated country and needs China, despite occasional ebbs in the relationship.中国官员也清楚，尽管中伊关系偶有起伏，但伊朗和朝鲜一样，是一个孤立的国家，仍然需要中国。On June 26, after Iran agreed to a cease-fire with Israel, Iran’s defense minister, Aziz Nasirzadeh, made his first trip abroad since the war began — to the Chinese city of Qingdao for a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a Eurasian security group led by China and Russia.6月26日，在伊朗同意与以色列停火后，伊朗国防部长阿齐兹·纳西尔扎德自战争爆发以来首次出访，前往中国青岛，参加由中国和俄罗斯主导的欧亚安全组织——上海合作组织的会议。黄安伟(Edward Wong)报道全球事务、美国外交政策和国务院新闻。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。