USDBRL: A multi-year outlook

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USDBRL: A multi-year outlookU.S. DOLLAR / BRAZILIAN REALFX_IDC:USDBRLBlueQuantProThere are two schools of thought: one says that the more a support or resistance (bottom or top) is tested, the stronger it gets, because players know the price won't break through. This is from John Murphy, and it's the one I follow. The other one says that each touch consumes liquidity. Statistically, a 6th or 7th touch is more prone to a breakout than a reversal. I think this second view becomes valid when an external factor is involved (macro-politics). Another point: we had an attempt to return to the all-time high (ATH) and it failed, leaving a long wick on the candle, which indicates it was pure leverage, without spot buying. For non-traders: 4.9 BRL to 5.1 BRL are great buying points. If it breaks the support (bottom), it will look for 4.8 BRL. If an ultra-relevant factor comes into play? It will look for 4.4 BRL.