Banks warn Hormuz closure is pushing oil markets toward a supply tipping point, with HSBC flagging non-linear price spikes and JPMorgan projecting the Strait could reopen in June.Summary:JPMorgan forecasts the Strait of Hormuz could reopen in June, driven by the accelerating pace of oil inventory depletion rather than any identified diplomatic or military mechanismHSBC describes the combined effect of the Middle East crisis and the closed Strait as a "super-squeeze," warning that commodity markets, including oil, face tipping points if the closure persistsHSBC analysts warn global oil inventories may reach critical functional lows, at which point price rises could become sharp and non-linear rather than gradualMorgan Stanley had previously cautioned that most market buffers preventing a rally to record highs could be exhausted before the Strait reopens, framing the situation as a race against timeIran has deployed naval mines across large segments of the Strait, with Secretary of State Rubio acknowledging the blockage is more extensive than earlier estimatesA prolonged closure, beyond what adjusted U.S. export levels and reduced Chinese crude imports can absorb, could push Dated Brent to $150 per barrel, per Morgan Stanley modellingThe Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the ceasefire remains fragile, and the debate among Wall Street banks has narrowed to a single uncomfortable question: not whether the blockade ends, but whether the oil market can survive waiting for it.JPMorgan this week projected the Strait could reopen as soon as this month, anchoring the call in the arithmetic of inventory depletion rather than any visible diplomatic progress. The bank's analysts argued that the accelerating pace of stock draws will eventually force a resolution, one way or another. What the note does not answer is the mechanism. A ceasefire that both sides treat as a pause is not a reopening. Iranian naval mines do not clear themselves. The "one way or another" in JPMorgan's framing is doing considerable work.HSBC is less focused on timing and more focused on consequence, and its analysis carries the sharper edge. The bank characterises the current environment as a super-squeeze rather than a super-cycle, a distinction that matters. Super-cycles are long structural shifts that markets can position for in advance. Squeezes are compression events, and they release suddenly. HSBC warns that global oil inventories may reach critical functional lows, at which point price increases stop being linear and start being disorderly. The bank does not name a date. It names a threshold, and argues it is approaching.Morgan Stanley had already flagged this trajectory last month, warning that the market buffers that have so far contained oil futures prices, rerouted supply, adjusted Chinese import patterns, the surge in U.S. crude exports, are finite. The bank described the situation as a race against time. Those buffers have continued to erode since that note was published.The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly a fifth of global oil exports. Iran has mined large segments of it, a fact Secretary of State Rubio confirmed this week in terms more explicit than prior official statements. With the conflict now past the three-month mark and ceasefire talks yielding no structural change to the blockade, the gap between a projected June reopening and an explained June reopening remains wide. Markets are being asked to price the former while waiting for evidence of the latter.---The market is not pricing a clean resolution, it is pricing a slow bleed. Inventory draws are the clock, and HSBC's tipping-point language carries more operational weight than JPMorgan's June timeline precisely because it does not depend on a diplomatic mechanism that nobody has yet identified. A non-linear price spike, by definition, arrives before the market is positioned for it. Traders watching the Morgan Stanley buffer analysis will note that the protective layers, alternative supply routing, adjusted Chinese import patterns, the U.S. export surge, are finite and already partially consumed. The $150 Brent scenario is not a base case, but it is no longer a tail. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.