ANZ's world commodity price index rose 0.7% in May, led by aluminium prices up 49.1% y/y after Persian Gulf production fell 35% due to Middle East conflict damage.Summary:Source: ANZ Commodity Price Index, May 2026, published June 4The ANZ World Commodity Price Index rose 0.7% m/m in May to 410.0, up 1.3% y/y, with all commodity groups posting incremental gainsAluminium prices rose 1.8% m/m and are up 49.1% y/y after a large Persian Gulf smelter was damaged in late March; regional production is down 35% from pre-conflict levels, with raw material imports also blockedWool prices surged 14.0% m/m and 75.3% y/y, reaching their highest level since October 2011, driven by strong demand and tight supplyBeef and lamb prices are stabilising near record highs; the meat and fibre index is up 19.4% y/yForestry in-market log prices have risen 11.9% since the conflict began, but higher shipping costs are consuming the gains, leaving New Zealand wharfgate prices unchangedThe NZD Commodity Price Index in local currency terms fell 0.3% m/m in May to 357.1, with a stronger New Zealand dollar offsetting world price gainsThe Middle East conflict has emerged as a direct driver of global commodity prices beyond energy, with ANZ Research's May commodity index showing aluminium at the sharp end of supply disruption that is reshaping price dynamics across multiple sectors.The ANZ World Commodity Price Index rose 0.7% in May to 410.0, a modest monthly gain that masks considerable movement in its components. The index is up 1.3% over the past year, but three commodities account for the standout performance: wool, up 75.3% annually; aluminium, up 49.1%; and beef, up 25.3%. Tight global supply is the common thread.Aluminium's trajectory is directly traceable to the conflict. The Persian Gulf region accounts for roughly 8 to 9% of global production. A large smelter in the region was damaged in late March, and the broader disruption has cut output to 35% below pre-conflict levels. The problem is compounding: raw materials, including alumina and bauxite, can no longer be imported into the Gulf, meaning the production shortfall is not simply a question of repairing one facility. The 1.8% monthly gain in May understates the cumulative shock; the 49.1% annual rise reflects it more accurately.Wool's surge to its highest index reading since October 2011 follows a different but structurally similar logic, with strong demand meeting constrained supply. Beef and lamb prices have stabilised near record highs, providing a floor rather than fresh upside.For New Zealand exporters, the picture is complicated by geography and currency. Forestry illustrates the problem: log prices have risen 11.9% since the conflict began, but elevated shipping costs, a direct consequence of Hormuz disruption and port congestion, are absorbing those gains entirely at the wharfgate. The NZD Commodity Price Index fell 0.3% in May as a slightly stronger New Zealand dollar reduced the local-currency value of world price gains, leaving the index at 357.1 against the world price reading of 410.0.---The Persian Gulf production hit to aluminium is not a price signal, it is a structural supply shock. A 35% output reduction from a region accounting for 8-9% of global production, compounded by the inability to import raw materials into the Gulf, is not easily offset by production elsewhere. The 49.1% year-on-year rise in aluminium prices reflects that reality. For New Zealand exporters, the forestry sector illustrates a secondary squeeze that will be familiar across commodity markets: in-market prices are rising, but the gains are being absorbed by shipping costs rather than landing at the farmgate. The NZD index underperforming the world price index by a full percentage point in May on currency alone adds another layer of friction. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.