India, Myanmar, and a shifting balance

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2 min readJun 4, 2026 06:15 AM IST First published on: Jun 4, 2026 at 06:15 AM ISTIn his first official overseas trip since being elected president earlier this year, Min Aung Hlaing concluded a five-day state visit to India this week, as part of an effort to rectify Myanmar’s diplomatic isolation. Following the coup he led in February 2021 — which resulted in the house arrest and eventual conviction of then-head of government Aung San Suu Kyi on trumped-up charges — Naypyidaw lost much of its political legitimacy, a perception it did little to improve with the stage-managed elections this year that propelled the USDP, a junta proxy, to power. Set against the backdrop of a devastating multi-front civil war between the military, pro-democracy forces and ethnic militias, Myanmar’s instability increasingly carries transnational repercussions and a Chinese footprint that India can ignore at its own peril.Reportedly, talks between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Min Aung Hlaing covered cooperation across security, trade, rare earths, healthcare, and connectivity projects, among other areas. Security is arguably the most pressing of these, given that the two countries share a 1,600-km border — militancy, ethnic ties, and constant cross-border movement mean that instability on one side spills over to the other. The civil war has underscored this reality as thousands of refugees, many from the Chin community, have sought shelter in Mizoram and Manipur. Further, the military has weaker control over areas that border India. Myanmar also serves as the land bridge underpinning India’s Act East Policy.AdvertisementThere is little doubt that the junta has committed atrocities against its own people over the past decade —first against the Rohingya, then against supporters of democracy. Even as the civil war grinds on, it also retains a firm grip on critical urban centres and institutional power. As much of the West has shunned the Min Aung Hlaing establishment, China has steadily widened its influence and thrown its weight behind the military leadership, driven by its own interests, not least the protection of its oil and gas infrastructure. New Delhi’s challenge, therefore, is to balance engagement with Naypyidaw and non-state actors who control stretches of the border. Until stability returns to Myanmar, a flexible approach is critical to India’s neighbourhood policy.