Where’s the West Asia conflict headed? Marco Rubio’s testimony offers some clues

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A five-hour-long testimony by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to the US Congress Tuesday (June 2) provided clues about where the West Asia conflict is headed amid a fragile peace and uncertain ceasefire talks with Iran.Appearing before the US Congress for the first time since the US and Israel began the war on February 28, a combative Rubio claimed that a deal was within reach and that Iran had agreed to discuss its nuclear programme. He also said, however, that there was no guarantee that the talks would lead to an “acceptable” deal.Rubio also spoke about a range of other issues linked to the larger conflict, including the closed Strait of Hormuz and India’s purchases of Russian oil under a US waiver. Here are the key six takeaways from his testimony before lawmakers on Capitol Hill.Nuclear talksRubio tried to project optimism about the ceasefire talks with Iran, claiming that Tehran was willing to discuss some aspects of its nuclear programme — which was previously a no-go area.The US wants Iran to cap its nuclear programme and give up its estimated 440 kg of highly enriched uranium.“They have agreed to negotiate aspects of their nuclear programme that just a month ago, just a year ago, they were refusing to even mention,” Rubio told the Senate.Also read | C Raja Mohan on Marco Rubio in India: Why Delhi obsesses over WashingtonStory continues below this adHe cautioned, however, that there was no guarantee that any agreement would be “acceptable to the Senate or acceptable to the American people.” The US Secretary of State was clearly not committing to a positive outcome. His open-ended assessment is an official acknowledgement of the fact that the two sides still have wide differences on a range of issues.In fact, Rubio’s statement came a day after Iran’s state-affiliated Tasnim News Agency reported that Tehran would stop exchanging messages with Washington through intermediaries, pointing to Israel’s military operations in Lebanon as a ceasefire violation. This has cast a shadow over the talks.Rubio, though, also denied that the US was desperate to get a deal.Sanctions reliefRubio said US negotiators have not offered sanctions relief to Iran in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Any such relief, he said, was tied to Tehran giving up its nuclear programme.Story continues below this ad“Right now, everything that’s been discussed with them (Iran) is that… any sanctions relief is condition-based, which means it has to be in return for the reason why those sanctions were put in place in the first place, which is their nuclear programme,” Rubio told the Senate hearing.Iran’s main demand has been relief from the crushing economic sanctions imposed by the US, which had led to widespread protests in January. Its biggest leverage during the conflict has been its control over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran closed the narrow waterway, through which a fifth of the world’s energy normally flows, in response to the US-Israel attack.Also read | Was Marco Rubio’s visit a reset in India-US ties?Tehran is hoping that Trump, who faces midterm elections later this year, will buckle under the pressure of the spiralling gas and fuel prices and agree to its demands.Story continues below this adHowever, the US has now stated that its main priority is Iran’s nuclear programme rather than the closed strait.This shows that the two sides are in a battle of wits and that high-stakes negotiations are essentially stuck on this point.A rift with Iran?Asked where the US stands on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s goal of seizing 70% of Gaza, Rubio said that was not part of President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan to end the conflict between Israel and Hamas and rebuild the devastated territory.“We have a plan. It doesn’t call for that,” Rubio said. “And at the end of the day, we understand that what we want, and I think what the Israelis would ultimately want, is a Gaza that is governed by a non-Hamas” entity.Story continues below this ad Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu. Rubio’s statement comes after US President Donald Trump reportedly ripped into Netanyahu over his plans to attack Lebanon capital Beirut, for attacking Lebanon, and jeopardising the Iran peace talks. Photo: Nirmal HarindranThis can be seen as a rebuke to the Israeli PM, who has consistently pushed the limits of the wars in Gaza as well as West Asia.Rubio’s statement comes after Trump reportedly ripped into Netanyahu over his plans to attack Lebanon capital Beirut, for attacking Lebanon, and jeopardising the Iran peace talks.According to Axios, which quoted a US official, Trump told Netanyahu: “You are f****** crazy. You would be in prison if it weren’t for me…. Everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel because of this.”A second source briefed on the call said Trump at one point yelled at Netanyahu: “What the f*** are you doing?”Story continues below this adRubio said China hasn’t provided help to Iran that “in any way impeded our operations”. He told lawmakers on the House subcommittee that Iran has Chinese military equipment from their previous ties but said the US has seen no indication that anything provided has “changed the dynamic in the battlefield”.This is an important statement and assessment from the US Secretary of State and acting National Security Advisor, especially in the backdrop of US President Donald Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping last week in Beijing.Also read | In fractured times, Marco Rubio’s visit marks India-US convergenceIt indicates that the US intelligence agencies would have carried out their assessment and would have cross-checked it with the Chinese agencies during their visit.Story continues below this adFrom India’s perspective, this is an important lesson since China had provided live intelligence to Pakistan during Operation Sindoor in May last year. This shows that Beijing is mindful of its ties with the US, and worked accordingly. It did not do the same with New Delhi.No unlimited waiver for India to buy Russian oilRubio said that the US would like to end the sanction waivers granted to countries purchasing Russian oil. “We would like to end it as soon as we possibly can because the underlying policy of this country has been to sanction their oil. These are time-limited waivers for the purpose of opening up more global supply,” Rubio said.The US granted a waiver from sanctions on the purchase of Russian oil in March and extended it twice. The last extension was granted on May 17 for one month.NewsletterFollow our daily newsletter so you never miss anything important. On Wednesday, we answer readers' questions.SubscribeIndia — which has been reeling under shortage of gas and fuel — due to the war in West Asia and the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has been buying Russian energy to meet its demands and reduce the inflationary impact.Story continues below this adRubio’s words, therefore, are hanging like Damocles’ sword — especially at a time when India is negotiating a trade deal with the US. India doesn’t want to return to the tariff wars that had been initiated by the US by slapping 50% tariffs on India — for high tariffs on US products and buying Russian energy.Iran Supreme Leader’s fateThe US Secretary of State also said that he believes that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, is alive and is “increasingly engaging” in leadership matters amid negotiations.“I think there are indications out there that he (Mojtaba Khamenei) is increasingly engaging at some level,” Rubio told lawmakers.Khamenei’s health has been a topic of constant speculation since he was injured in the attack that killed his father, former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. There have been reports of injuries to his face and limbs, and that he had been incommunicado and had been living in a high-secure facility, with minimal access and exposure, so that he can’t be targeted.This means that three months down the line, he has recovered and is in the position to engage with the Iranian military and the political negotiators. However, by all accounts, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps is in control, and has access to the new Supreme leader, who has not been seen since the war started.