Dollar-yen nearing intervention area againUS Dollar/Japanese YenFX:USDJPYMichael_Stark_ExnessDollar-yen’s recovery from last month’s intervention has continued in June so far with the price holding around ¥160. The latest intervention by the Japanese authorities was worth over ¥11 trillion but didn’t have any clear, lasting effect in shoring up the struggling yen. Divergence in monetary policy remains a key factor in the yen’s weakness while the Japanese economy’s dependence on imported raw materials also seems to make it more vulnerable to an extension or possible escalation of the Gulf conflict. Participants expect the BoJ to hike to 1% on 16 June despite inflation significantly below target. ‘The trend is (usually) your friend’ but the ongoing direction for dollar-yen seems less certain: another, maybe even larger, intervention certainly seems possible if the price holds around ¥160 for more than a few days. ¥156.50 is a possible support given that the price failed to break through there in late April and early May amid very long tails of several periods. Although the golden cross of the 20 SMA above the 50 SMA from Bands can probably be ignored in the context, overall a significant retracement without a fundamental narrative remains questionable. Some technical retracement lower is quite likely sooner or later, though, especially if the NFP is weaker than expected, given the strong overbought signal from the slow stochastic, low volume accompanying the bounce over the last month and significantly lower volatility. This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.