EUR/USD: Is the Rally Over?EUR/USDOANDA:EURUSDEdgeTradingJourneyAfter reviewing the latest technical structure, COT data, retail sentiment, and seasonal tendencies, I believe EUR/USD is approaching a critical decision point. The pair recently rejected a major supply zone around 1.1760–1.1800 while continuing to respect the descending trendline that has capped price since the January highs. From a positioning perspective, large speculators remain net long EUR futures, but the latest COT report reveals a reduction in long exposure. This doesn't signal an immediate trend reversal, but it does suggest that bullish conviction is fading. At the same time, USD Index positioning continues to improve, supporting the possibility of a stronger dollar environment over the coming weeks. Retail sentiment adds another interesting layer. More than half of retail traders remain long EUR/USD despite the recent decline, which from a contrarian perspective tends to favor further downside. Seasonality remains supportive for EUR strength during June, but currently it is being outweighed by weakening technical structure and improving USD sentiment. As long as price remains below 1.1675–1.1700, my preferred scenario remains a continuation lower toward the 1.1550 area, with 1.1500 and potentially 1.1450 acting as broader downside objectives. A recovery above 1.1675 would invalidate this bearish outlook and reopen the path toward 1.1760 and beyond. What matters most now is whether buyers can defend the current demand zone or if sellers regain full control of the trend.