The field for the GI Belmont Stakes, ranked in “likeliest winner” order (program number after each horse's name).1) RENEGADE #4 (c, Into Mischief–Spice Is Nice, by Curlin). O-Robert Low, Lawana L. Low, and Repole Stable; B-Robert Low & Lawana Low (KY); T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales history: $975,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime record: GISW, 6-2-3-1, $2,031,500. Last start: 2nd May 2 GI Kentucky Derby.Renegade overcame all sorts of trouble when beaten a neck as the 5.65-1 second choice in the GI Kentucky Derby, and the bet here is that this hard-charging $975,000 KEESEP son of Into Mischief will benefit from that experience in Saratoga's final 10-furlong version of the third jewel of the Triple Crown before the Belmont Stakes race reverts to its rebuilt home and traditional 1 1/2-miles distance in 2027.Renegade's Derby woes began a week before the race was run, when he drew the historically disadvantageous (now winless in 41 years) inside post position. He actually ended up breaking pretty well, but after deflecting a modest bump in the initial few strides, Renegade immediately absorbed the brunt of more forceful chain-reaction crowding.Unlike many colts who might have been mentally rattled or knocked off stride, an unfazed Renegade settled into a comfortable rhythm near the back of the 18-horse pack under Irad Ortiz, Jr.This Todd Pletcher trainee raced patiently down the back straight, riding the rail until Ortiz edged out three-eighths from home. Renegade seemed set to click into a quicker cadence approaching the head of the lane, but Ortiz had to keep him reined in while floating ever wider behind a wall of horses.When Renegade finally got clear and blasted off, he was fanned way out in the 10 path. He slam-danced with Incredibolt (Bolt d'Oro) between the three-sixteenths and eighth poles before torqueing into a higher gear to confront the onrushing Golden Tempo (Curlin). Renegade brushed with the eventual winner in the final half-furlong but was outkicked in the closing strides.Renegade's chief attribute is that he's powerful but agile. In the Feb. 7 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa, his visually-arresting final sixteenth was clocked in 5.97 seconds, the fastest among 19 points-awarding Derby prep stakes at that distance in 2025-26.In the Mar. 28 GI Arkansas Derby, Renegade soared home solo through a final furlong in 11.84 seconds. No nine-furlong Derby qualifying prep in at least the last four years has produced a sub-12-seconds final furlong.2) COMMANDMENT #7 (c, Into Mischief–Sippican Harbor, by Orb). O-Wathnan Racing; B-Lee Pokoik (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $485,000 RNA Wlg '23 FTKNOV; $475,000 RNA Ylg '24 FTSAUG; $500,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime record: GISW, 6-4-0-0, $1,017,339. Last start: 7th May 2 GI Kentucky Derby.I wrote in multiple installments of this column over the spring how Commandment had repeatedly demonstrated he could make his own in-race breaks, even when tactically disadvantaged. His strong series of prep races indicated he was a colt who could reliably extricate himself from traffic, either by bulling through trouble, finding holes along the inside, or flying home wide and driving.But when it came time to deliver while riding a four-race win streak into the Derby, this Brad Cox-trained son of Into Mischief ended up short of those expectations.Commandment wasn't disgraced in defeat–he finished seventh, beaten 5 1/4 lengths. But still, his Derby try didn't match the projections for an A-lister who was the only Derby entrant going into the race with two straight triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures (101 in the GII Fountain of Youth Stakes and 100 in the GI Florida Derby).Breaking from post five at Churchill, Commandment was rated effectively by Luis Saez and managed to avoid most of the crowding that compromised runners to his inside. He settled fifth from last, racing in the clear without being covered up the first time under the wire.He made incremental advancement from seven furlongs out and was well positioned down the backstretch. Turning for home in the eight path, Commandment appeared very much in it to win it. But then he had trouble dealing with pressure from two outer-running rivals who muscled down in on him, which was the opposite of how you'd think he would have reacted based on his previously assertive runs. Commandment had no spark in the stretch and his Derby was over by the time he crested the eighth pole.Having said all that, I'm still banking on Commandment to run truer to form over 10 furlongs against a field that will be half the size of what is was in Louisville.This is a big, sturdy, straightforward colt who has already done a lot of developmental things right, and on Saturday he'll get a jockey change to John Velazquez for the first time.Cherie DeVaux with Golden Tempo | Sarah Andrew3) GOLDEN TEMPO #9 (Curlin–Carrumba, by Bernardini). 'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard'. O/B-Phipps Stable & St. Elias Stable, LLC (KY); T-Cherie DeVaux. Lifetime record: GISW, 5-3-0-2, $3,433,000. Last start: WON May 2 GI Kentucky Derby.In the Derby, Golden Tempo shrugged off a light squeeze at the start, and Jose Ortiz was content to drop to last and save ground. Even though everybody knew those would be the likely tactics for this homebred son of Curlin, there was a point down the backside when this 23-1 closer seemed hopelessly out of touch, well behind the three stragglers detached from the main body of the field.This Cherie DeVaux trainee loped along until the three-eighths pole, then gradually unwound. Ortiz split horses at the back, then briefly considered inside passage before shifting outward on the turn.At the quarter pole Golden Tempo should have been cranking it up. But he looked cast adrift amid a sea of onrushing contenders and capitulating pretenders. He was six wide, twelfth, and lacking a runway.After getting briefly stalled on heels in upper stretch when Ortiz was unsure whether he wanted to be inside or outside of the scrum involving Renegade and Incredibolt, Golden Tempo finally hit his best stride when Ortiz went to a left-handed stick and committed him to the outside.From the eighth pole home, Golden Tempo locked into a steady, ratcheting churn, swatting back a serious bid from the shifting-out Renegade in the final strides. Emboldened by close contact, he never flinched, surging with purpose to win by a neck.Part of the reason Golden Tempo is the third choice at 9-2 on the morning line for the Belmont is that there will be pari-mutuel skepticism he can replicate that deep, prolonged Derby bid in a nine-horse race that doesn't have a lot of early speed on paper.Will Ortiz opt to position Golden Tempo closer to the pace? Or will that risk taking this colt out of his comfort zone?Recall that last year's 9-1 Derby winner, Sovereignty (Into Mischief), also brought a far-off-the-tailgate style into the Belmont after skipping the Preakness. He, too, was not favored, but adapted his tactics to stalk much closer to the early action. The result was a three-length win at 5-2 odds.4) CHIEF WALLABEE #3 (c, Constitution–A La Lucie, by Medaglia d'Oro). 'TDN Rising Star presented by Hagyard'. O/B-Mike Ball & Katherine Ball (KY); T-William I. Mott. Lifetime record: GSP, 4-1-1-1, $466,600. Last start: 4th May 2 GI Kentucky Derby.With blinkers added in the Derby, this homebred son of Constitution from Bill Mott's stable broke amid light contact and tried to find a foothold in the pecking order. He was a touch keen, but Junior Alvarado adeptly got him to settle in tenth, about four paths off the rail down the backside.About 3 1/2 furlongs out, Chief Wallabee was asked to pop through a hole between rivals, but it closed and Alvarado had to shift inward for Plan B. Constantly trying to thread the needle for gaps that weren't materializing, this colt ran up on heels in upper stretch and got pinballed around pretty good between the three-sixteenths and eighth poles. Yet he repeatedly refocused to close determinedly for fourth, beaten just three lengths.Recall that two starts back, in the Florida Derby, Chief Wallabee was boxed at the fence for an entire furlong entering the far turn, then came with a four-wide run but had to switch off heels in upper stretch. He lost momentum and focus that day, but did re-engage late when he sensed eventual winner Commandment barreling past on the outside.The positive difference between those two starts was that in the Kentucky Derby, there was no noticeable mental lapse despite encountering adversity. Chief Wallabee can now build off that experience.Emerging Market | Sarah Andrew5) EMERGING MARKET #8 (c, Candy Ride {Arg}-Wild Empress, by Empire Maker). 'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard'. O-Klaravich Stables, Inc.; B-Stoneriggs Farm (KY); T-Chad C. Brown. Sales history: $185,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime record: GSW, 3-2-0-0, $618,880. Last start: 10th May 2 GI Kentucky Derby.Here's something you don't often encounter when handicapping the Belmont Stakes: Three of the top five contenders–Commandment, Chief Wallabee and Emerging Market–are each entering the race coming off two consecutive declines in their Beyer figures.In the case of this Chad Brown-trained son of Candy Ride (Arg), it might be a case of too few data points to work with. Emerging Market has only started three times. His lifetime Beyer arc is 97-90-85.But numbers don't tell the entire story. The “how he did it” aspect of this $185,000 KEESEP colt's first two victories was exceptionally high.Emerging Market has stalked, targeted and forced his way past pacemakers both while covered up at the fence (1 mile 40 yards maiden debut at Tampa) and from the outermost post (1 3/16 miles GII Louisiana Derby). His stretch runs have been punctuated by shoulder-to-shoulder showdowns that drilled staying-on rivals into defeat.In the Kentucky Derby, Emerging Market broke cleanly and advanced into the first flight. He managed to hold position in fifth through the first turn despite jostling, then found a stalking spot with lighter cover down the backstretch.When the tiring pacemaker vacated the rail, Flavien Prat asked Emerging Market to shoot through an inviting opening at the fence. But this colt didn't burst on through to take advantage of that prime positioning.That left Emerging Market bottled up when a cluster of spent horses called it quits near the inside. He eventually did pick off s few of them in mid-stretch, but was no danger to the fresh closers firing late on the outside.“I just came up empty,” Prat said after ending up tenth, beaten 7 3/4 lengths. “I just couldn't make any move when it was time to go.”Better races are ahead for Emerging Market. The Belmont Stakes could be one of them.6) OTTINHO #5 (c, Quality Road–Quiet Giant, by Giant's Causeway). O/B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC (KY); T-Chad C. Brown. Lifetime record: GISP, 4-1-1-2, $324,700. Last start: 2nd Apr.4 GI Blue Grass Stakes.Ottinho, a homebred half-brother to 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner, was most recently second in the Apr. 4 GI Blue Grass Stakes. Trainer Chad Brown bypassed the Derby with him to heal a crack in the sole of one of the colt's hooves, with the aim of targeting the Belmont Stakes.“That horse wants every bit of a mile and a quarter,” Brown told the TDN last week. “He will stay all day, fitness wise. But you get into that, 'Do they want this class level competition?' He will be tested. We'll find out.”Ottinho broke his maiden in his second lifetime start Dec. 31, showing speed going nine furlongs in an Aqueduct MSW. That race subsequently produced only one winner from five other next-out starters, with that one winner requiring a drop into $20,000 maiden-claiming company.Ottinho was third, beaten 11 1/2 lengths in the Feb. 6 Withers Stakes, giving him a base of three consecutive nine-furlong tries going into the Belmont Stakes. Dylan Davis picks up the mount.Although Ottinho has been rating from the back in his last two tries, he could take a flyer on the lead at 20-1 on the morning line, which would replicate the on-the-pace tactics he employed in his maiden score.Growth Equity | Sarah Andrew7) GROWTH EQUITY #6 (c, Nyquist-My Dear Venezuela, by Wildcat Heir). O-Klaravich Stables, Inc.; B-Stone Farm (KY); T-Chad C. Brown. Sales history: $425,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-2-0, $187,600. Last start: WON May 9 GIII Peter Pan Stakes.This Nyquist-sired colt from Chad Brown's stable rides an upward Beyer progression (69, 83,89, 93) into the Belmont Stakes.Growth Equity was twice second sprinting, both at Saratoga last July and at Gulfstream in February, before breaking through in start number three at Aqueduct in March. That was a one-turn-mile MSW facing only three rivals, none of whom were next-start winners.This colt again controlled a short field against only four others in the May 9 GIII Peter Pan Stakes at Aqueduct.Off as the even-money favorite, Growth Equity tracked the leaders in hand and got second run at a softened-up pacemaker, drawing away to win by two lengths without having to repulse a serious stretch bid.8) POWERSHIFT #2 (c, Constitution-Free Flying Soul, by Quiet American). O-Repole Stable; B- Liberty Road Stables (KY); T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales history: $500,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime record: 3-1-1-0, $81,896. Last start: WON May 2 Churchill Downs MSW.Powershift, a comparatively late (May 17) foal, just broke his maiden going 1 1/16 miles as an even-money MSW favorite on the Derby undercard.He has three lifetime races, including a taking-a-shot sixth in the GIII Tampa Bay Derby.But the race that stands out in Powershift's past performance block is actually his Feb. 7 debut at Tampa, in which he briefly got the jump on Emerging Market before sparring with that next-out Louisiana Derby winner for the length of the stretch. Powershift ended up second, beaten only three-quarters of a length, while 13 1/2 lengths clear of a field that included two next-out winners.Powershift's dam, Free Flying Soul, was a sprint stakes winner on the California circuit more than a decade and a half ago. Her best-producing offspring have won stakes in sprints and up to 1 1/16 miles.9) VITRUVIAN MAN #1 (c, Vino Rosso-Caradini, by Bernardini). O-Glenn Sorgenstein WC Racing Inc. and Run Fast Racing. B-Glenn Sorgenstein WC Racing Inc. (KY); T-Doug F. O'Neill. Sales history: $47,000 RNA Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime record, GISP, 6-1-1-2, $142,345. Last start: 3rd Apr. 4 GI Santa Anita Derby.With starts at six different tracks over fast dirt, mud, Tapeta and turf at distances ranging from one mile to nine furlongs, the Doug O'Neill-trained Vitruvian Man (Vino Rosso) has the benefit of varied racing experiences as a 30-1 morning-line long shot breaking from post one in the Belmont Stakes.So far, the only victory he's been able to achieve was a $44 score by a nose last autumn at Keeneland in a maiden route restricted to horses that sold or RNA'd for $65,000 or less in their most recent auction.His third in the GI Santa Anita Derby was a surprise at 47-1 odds. He stalked inside, dropped back on the far turn, then stayed on well enough to get past a retreating rival by half a length, although still 9 1/2 lengths behind the top two finishers.The post TDN Belmont Stakes Preview: And The Winner Is… appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.