TOTAL - How the Bear Market Bottom is Likely to FormCrypto Total Market Cap, $CRYPTOCAP:TOTALVIAQUANTToday I will be breaking down what is the highest probability path for how the next bear market low will form for the cryptocurrency market. But to do this properly I must first lay out what has happened since March 2024. The 2024 Crypto ETF Bull Market Let's go back to the spot BTC ETF era. The first spot Bitcoin ETFs launched on January 11, 2024, sending the markets on a phenomenal run and adding over $1 trillion in value to the cryptocurrency market in a single quarter. This is where the current bear market structure begins to take shape and why that period matters so much. During the ETF launch period, the cryptocurrency market experienced the strongest trend momentum of the entire 2023 to 2025 bull market, with the weekly RSI printing a reading of 90.87. This is what I have labeled "ETF Euphoria." Fast forward to late 2024. Trump winning the US election brought tremendous hype back to the space as this would be the first "crypto president." Bitcoin crossed $100,000 for the first time and the entire crypto market cap added another $1 trillion on top of the ETF Euphoria highs. But this is where the trend began to deviate. Despite the new market cap high, trend momentum started to fade. The US Election Hype printed a lower high on the RSI at 78.16. This was the first sign of bearish divergence on the macro. Then fast forward to July 18, 2025. Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law, sending the entire cryptocurrency market cap to approximately $4 trillion. Yet again the market cap printed a new high while the RSI printed a lower high, this time getting rejected right at overbought conditions with a reading of 69.84. This was the second data point of a clear bearish divergence forming on the weekly timeframe. Investor euphoria continued to rise but trend strength and momentum continued to diminish. Next, on October 6, 2025, the cryptocurrency market topped. The entire crypto market cap rallied to a high of $4.27T while the weekly RSI printed yet another lower high at 65.68. This was the final data point of the bearish divergence before the bear market began. Three consecutive lower highs on the RSI while the market cap made three consecutive higher highs. That is one of the clearest macro bearish divergences the crypto market has ever printed. Where The Market Is Now Based on my four-year retrospective, the bear market is over halfway complete. For a deeper dive into that analysis you can view this idea: However, based on other signals I am tracking, there is a strong chance this is the cycle where the four-year cycle breaks. Bitcoin currently appears on track to bottom before the expected Q4 bottom in October. That is the scenario I will be forecasting in this idea. As always I will be keeping you updated throughout this entire bear market as developments unfold, but for now let me walk you through that scenario. To understand why this major crash is happening and how the market structure developed leading into it, I highly recommend reviewing these posts: Another "Sell the News" Event The CLARITY Act is particularly important to touch on here as it became the next major sell the news event and another key data point before this crash. The entire cryptocurrency market cap created a hidden bearish divergence on the weekly timeframe, which is what makes this so structurally significant. TOTAL went from $3.29T to $2.72T while at the same time the RSI went from 44.83 to 49.73, creating a higher high in momentum while price made a lower low. This signals that buying strength is fading and sellers remain firmly in control, pointing to the continuation of the existing downtrend. What Comes Next Now that this has printed in the charts, here is what I believe will happen next based on the data available to me. The most likely development for the cryptocurrency market is a bullish divergence forming on the weekly timeframe. This will most likely coincide with another lower low in terms of market cap. The last low in February was $2.05T and this next low is likely to occur around $1.9T. At the same time, a higher low should form on the RSI. The last low was 27.76 and this next low is likely to occur somewhere between 30 and 33. This would coincide with a liquidity sweep for Bitcoin below $60,000 and a potential pivot low somewhere around $57,000, which aligns fairly well with these previous predictions: Two Scenarios for the Bear Market Bottom Once this scenario plays out the critical question becomes whether that is the bear market low or whether one more drop follows in accordance with the four-year cycle. Scenario 1 is a drop below $60,000 with a liquidity sweep followed by a strong rebound creating the bear market low earlier in this cycle than most people expect. Scenario 2 would align with a deeper drop toward the $1.61T market cap level, which I outlined as the primary bottom range candidate in this idea: The Bottom Line For now, treat both of these scenarios as the most likely possibilities for how the next bear market bottom forms in crypto. Since we are currently approaching the valuations outlined in Scenario 1, stay extremely vigilant. If the bottom forms earlier than most people expect, a drop below $60,000 (or $1.9T on TOTAL) followed by a rebound would catch a lot of people off guard and leave many sidelined during the next major rally. There is still a chance, depending on the macro, that Bitcoin sees a further crash to the lower levels outlined, but hopefully this gives you enough to watch for in the coming weeks. As always I will be updating all charts and projections in real time as the market develops. Follow @VIAQUANT for more!