$ELD the golden diamond(s)Eldorado Gold CorporationTSX_DLY:ELDDillyDallyGallythe most significant sum of $ i've put into a single stock was FOM Foran Mining. now apart of Eldorado. however the deal went down, the new analysis on the consolidated assets looks like, as Claude put it: Sum-of-the-parts NAV (after-tax NPV5%, base deck $3,800 Au / $5.00 Cu)$B$/sh Operating mines (Lamaque, Kisladag, Efemcukuru, Olympias)$5.5b$21 Skouries (100%, gold-copper)$4.5b$17 McIlvenna Bay (100%, copper-zinc-gold-silver)$1.4b$5 Tesla Zone + exploration (risked optionality)$0.5b$2 Pipeline (Perama Hill, Sapes, Stratoni) net of corporate$0.2b$1 Less: net debt−$1.0b−$4 Net asset value$11.1b$42 Current price / implied P/NAV (base deck)$8.8b$33.5 = 0.79x NAV at spot gold (~$4,450) / implied P/NAV~$14.2b~$54 = 0.62x The thesis is an EBITDA inflection the market isn’t paying for. Eldorado earns ~$1.7b EBITDA in 2026, but Skouries (first concentrate Q3’26, ~140koz Au + 67Mlb Cu/yr at negative AISC) and McIlvenna Bay (commercial Q3’26) roughly double EBITDA to ~$2.8b in 2027 and lift gold output ~40% — the bull rail’s +78% jump in ’27 is that step-change. Reverse-DCF: at $33.5 the EV (~$9.8b, incl. ~$1.0b net debt) implies only ~$1.7b of EBITDA held flat (purple row) — essentially the 2026 trough — so the market gives ~zero credit for the ramp; if 2027 EBITDA lands near base, the same ~5.5x multiple alone re-rates the stock toward the high-$50s. SOTP cross-check (table above): NAV ~$42/sh at a $3,800 base deck (~0.80x), ~$54 at spot gold (~0.62x) — versus the peer ~0.81x P/NAV Eldorado historically traded below. Base FV builds to ~$87 (+10%/yr) as the projects de-risk and FCF (−$0.3b in ’26 → ~$1.8–2.0b/yr) delevers to net cash and funds buybacks; bull ~$180, weighted ~$111. Devil’s advocate: this is a leveraged bet on the gold price — the bear rail (gold fades to ~$2,800) leaves the stock ~flat ($36), and a sharper gold correction would hurt more; Skouries has a history of delays (already slipped a quarter, capital crept to $1.315b) and is only at first-concentrate, not steady-state; the Foran deal diluted existing holders ~24% with nil premium and bolts a copper-zinc VHMS (a metallurgy/jurisdiction ELD has never operated) onto a gold company mid-Skouries-ramp; Kisladag and Efemcukuru sit in Turkiye (FX, inflation, royalty risk); and the out-year net-cash build assumes high metal prices hold. Blue-sky “what has to be true”: the Tesla Zone’s maiden resource (H2’26, 28–45Mt exploration target on existing infrastructure) plus district exploration adds a third growth leg, McIlvenna scales beyond the initial mill, and gold holds $4,500+/copper $6.50+ — turning a two-project re-rate into a multi-decade gold-copper franchise (blue rail ~$289). Engine: Fair value = forward Adj EBITDA × EV/EBITDA − net debt, ÷ shares, for four scenarios, cross-checked to a sum-of-the-parts after-tax NAV. Foran Mining acquired Apr 14, 2026 (all-share, 0.1128 ELD + C$0.01/Foran share, ~C$3.8B / ~US$2.8B; Foran holders ~24% of the combined company; ~62M shares issued → ~262M total), adding McIlvenna Bay + the Tesla Zone. Q1'26: 100,358 oz gold, revenue $532M, adj EBITDA $336M, adj EPS $0.95, cash $630M, total debt ~$1.3B, FCF −$129M (Skouries capex). 2026 guidance 490–590koz gold, AISC $1,670–1,870/oz; Skouries first concentrate Q3'26, commercial Q4'26 (94% built, total Phase 2 capital $1.315B), ~140koz Au + 67Mlb Cu/yr LOM at negative AISC; McIlvenna commercial Q3'26 (~41Mlb Cu + 20koz Au + 444koz Ag + 54Mlb Zn/yr, 18-yr life, after-tax NPV7% ~$1.05B at $4.53 Cu). 3-yr outlook 620–720koz (2027), 640–740koz (2028); circular 2027 ~$2.1B EBITDA / ~$1.5B FCF. Spot June 3 2026: gold ~$4,450/oz, copper ~$6.50/lb (both near records; FS decks were far lower). Base deck $3,700–4,200 gold / $5.00–6.00 copper. Sources: ELD Q1'26 results, Feb 2026 guidance, Skouries 2021 FS, Foran/McIlvenna 2025 FS, Mar 2026 circular, June 2026 spot. NAV at spot gold (~$4,450) would be ~$54/sh vs ~$42 at base deck. Dividend ~$0.30/yr. IRR rows price-only. Probabilities are judgment. NOT investment advice.