By William Serafino – Oct 12, 2026The opinion polls failed again, which is becoming less and less surprising in a volatile and unpredictable world. Against the consensus forecast, on Sunday, October 4, in a Brazilian election marked by intense polarization, far-right candidate Flávio Bolsonaro narrowly defeated President Lula da Silva.The end of the first round of the presidential elections was a photo finish. The son of the coup leader Jair Bolsonaro obtained 47.1% of the votes compared to Lula’s 45%, a difference of approximately 2.5 million votes.Without the intention of fostering pessimism, it must be assumed that the result, heading into the second round, places Flávio in a winning position to occupy the seat of the Planalto Palace. However, these days it is impossible to make an accurate prediction.The uphill battle for Lula is very steep, amid a regional trend toward right-wing politics that also does not support him. In June, far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella defeated Iván Cepeda in the first round of the Colombian presidential elections, and thereafter reached the presidency in the second round.The Amazon factorFor Venezuela, a final outcome in one direction or the other in Brazil does not mean the same thing in strategic terms.The two countries share an extensive border of more than 2,000 kilometers in length that forms the northern edge of the Amazon. Although poorly integrated and with low population density, the binational crossing sits over important reservoirs of Venezuelan strategic minerals.To have a minimal geographical notion, the gold mines of El Callao and Las Cristinas (among the largest in the world), and the diamond zone of Ikabarú, are closer to the border with Brazil to the south than to Caracas itself, the political center of Venezuela.It is no secret that Bolsonaro Jr.’s eventual victory would be mortgaged to Washington. The Trump administration has used diplomatic, economic, and media weapons to favor the candidate ideologically aligned to it, with whom it has already established a rare earths appropriation agreement based on an exclusive geoeconomic alignment with the US.Prior to the elections, the Brazilian Intelligence Agency had already been warning about the increasing and increasingly explicit interference of the US government in the contest.With no margin for autonomy, Flávio’s logical step upon arriving at Planalto would be to incorporate Brazil into the Shield of the Americas, an affiliation that would grant the US solid strategic depth in the Amazon. In fact, the far-right candidate promised the affiliation in the middle of last month.With the already materialized incorporations of Colombia and Peru, plus Brazil, Washington would gain notable geopolitical influence over almost 80% of the tropical forest and the largest river system in the world.Meanwhile, SOUTHCOM seems to be preparing to welcome the South American giant to the Shield. In a recent report by The Wall Street Journal, General Francis Donovan, commander of SOUTHCOM, stated the need to acquire high-tech systems to carry out surveillance operations in jungle territories, with extreme climates and topographical access difficulties.The suggestive statement by Donovan, who seemed to be talking about the Amazon without explicitly naming it, occurred in parallel with the first signs of the deployment of MQ-9 Reaper combat and surveillance drones from Africa to South America. In recent days, The New York Times confirmed that these drones would be heading to Colombia and Ecuador to combat drug trafficking.A Brazil affiliated with the Shield of the Americas would mean that Venezuela would not only face the geostrategic pressure from the US on its northern front, as US bombings continue in the Caribbean Sea, but also on its southern tip, which is close to significant deposits of strategic minerals, an area where the US military presumably executed the Venezuelan gangster Niño Guerrero in June.This logic is explained in the 2025 US National Security Strategy, which states in its initial sections: “we want to ensure our continued access to key strategic locations.” What could be more crucial than the world’s most promising gold deposits just a few flight miles from an MQ-9 Reaper? What could be more of a priority than the critical minerals in indigenous territories on both sides of the border? How to take possession of them if not through violence, as the capitalist manual has dictated for centuries?Much has been reflected upon regarding the Shield of the Americas as a 21st-century adaptation of Operation Condor. In contrast, little has it been evaluated as an instrument of expropriation and control of strategic resources, which combines military presence and influence over supply flows and chains.Hence, Trump, at the recent UN General Assembly, described the shield as the “largest alliance for economic and national security to ever convene in the Western Hemisphere.” After a meeting on the sidelines of the UNGA with members of this militaristic initiative, the joint statement began by addressing economy and investment control mechanisms, along with intelligence exchanges, a common fight against “narco-terrorism,” and the protection of critical minerals.Within the framework of this program, the Bolsonaroization of Brazil would represent a vehicle for the US to expand its coercive influence in the northern Amazon margin, near significant Venezuelan mineral reserves, which has so far been denied by Lula’s resistance to entering the Shield of the Americas.Therefore, a victory for Lula would be the most desirable outcome for Venezuela in terms of reducing strategic risk, although it does not fulfill the legitimate desire of many to see a Brazil that works on relaunching multipolarity from the region and revitalizing political and economic ties with Caracas as in the past.The complex diplomatic frontThe diplomatic future is one of the great questions that, unfortunately, will remain unanswered until the D-Day of the second round arrives.Regarding Venezuela, a victory for Lula could probably mean more of the same indifference and passivity demonstrated in the bilateral relationship over the past months, which in a general sense would be beneficial for a government focused on the country’s internal political and economic dynamics.Even if Lula were to achieve the epic feat of defeating Flávio, he would govern a strongly polarized nation with a decisive territorial and institutional presence of Bolsonarism. It could be foreseen that he would not have the bandwidth to try to influence regional affairs decisively, except to use the levers of diplomacy to promote Brazilian economic interests in Venezuela, which continue to approach Caracas without caring too much about the electoral outcome.Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro Head to Runoff in BrazilWith Flávio, the weight of the unknown is even greater. Some analysts dare to predict that it would be the ideal scenario for Caracas to strengthen its asymmetric alliance with Washington. As a result of the political mortgage contracted with Trump, Bolsonaro Jr. would not dare to go against Trump, which would lead him to replicate the behavior of José Antonio Kast of Chile: an approach without strategic commitments, weighing the convenience of a photo with Delcy Rodríguez.On the other hand, some analysts argue that María Corina Machado’s lobby within the Bolsonaro universe carries significant weight and would represent a headache for Miraflores, as she would gain a solid ally to advocate for her interests before Trump.Nothing is definite in this regard, but it could be economic interests that ultimately determine the Brasilia-Caracas bilateral dynamics, whether with Lula or with Flávio. Petrobras, for example, has persistently emphasized, in recent years and recently, its interest in investing in the Venezuelan oil sector.Facing this impulse, the incentives seem to collide, between the short leash policy toward Caracas and the objective need for business sectors to enter in order to boost Venezuelan oil production.Ultimately, having a government aligned and mortgaged to Trump as a neighbor does not seem to be the most optimal scenario for Venezuela; unless, out of ignorance or of one’s own volition, one decides to buy the narrative that Trump, deep down, wants us Venezuelans to dance happily in the streets at some point.Wishing for Lula to lose, as some in Venezuela are doing on social media, paradoxically coinciding with the one who pulled the trigger on January 3 over Caracas, shows that in many minds Trump has won the most important battle: the battle of memory and dignity, symbolic territories that are also plundered if there is no one to defend them. (Diario Red)Translation: Orinoco TribuneOT/SC/CD