The deferred curve is carrying the bigger signal. WTI for calendar 2027 hit a record for a 12th straight session, around $84, and Brent’s 2027 strip set records on Monday near $90. That suggests the market is pricing a lasting supply deficit, not just a front-month war premium. Diesel remains the pressure point, with product strength outpacing crude and keeping refining margins elevated. With the Dhahran reports coming late in the day, the Asian open is the first real test of how much Aramco infrastructure risk gets priced back into Brent. A narrower Brent-WTI spread also points to Middle East risk being offset at the margin by the prospect of more Russian barrels.---I'm doing a bit of a catch up on crude if its of any use to anyone. Earlier:Crude oil futures settle up $0.40 at $94.14---Oil is caught between a Russian diesel deal that promises more supply and a Saudi-Houthi war that now reaches the doorstep of Aramco’s headquarters.Summary:Brent settled down nearly $1, or circa 1%, at around $106, after Monday’s highest close since mid-September; WTI rose about 40 cents to around $94, its highest close since late SeptemberHopes the US-Russia diesel export deal could free up Russian supply offset Middle East risk; the Kremlin said the deal has no direct link to Ukraine peace talksLoud booms were reported near Saudi Aramco’s Dhahran headquarters amid an escalating Saudi-Houthi war; Aramco did not commentOPEC said OPEC+ output rose sharply in September, led by Saudi Arabia lifting crude production to around 8.4 million bpd from around 6.2 million in AugustOPEC cut its 2026 demand growth forecast for a sixth straight month and raised next year’s outlook, citing the need to rebuild inventories depleted by the Iran warTrump accused the Houthis of trying to drive up oil prices before the US midterm electionsOil prices settled mixed on Tuesday as hopes that a US-Russia deal on diesel exports could release more supply from Moscow offset an escalating conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthis that threatens Gulf energy infrastructure.Brent crude futures settled at around $106 a barrel, down nearly $1 or circa 1%, after closing on Monday at their highest level since mid-September. US West Texas Intermediate rose about 40 cents to settle at around $94, its strongest close since late September, Reuters reported.The Kremlin said it saw no direct link between the diesel deal and its position on Ukraine peace talks. It was responding to a Reuters report that US President Donald Trump’s envoys had told Ukrainian officials the arrangement was part of an effort to bring Russia back to negotiations. Trump said the Russian diesel was destined for the rest of the world rather than the United States. US diesel futures still traded up circa 5%, a sign the market remains unconvinced the deal will ease tight product supply. Diesel prices have recently hit record highs in many regions after Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy sites and Iranian attacks on Middle East infrastructure.In the Gulf, loud booms were heard on Tuesday night near Saudi Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran, the centre of the kingdom’s oil industry, according to six sources cited by Reuters. One source said the building had been struck, though it was unclear whether by a direct hit or falling debris, and an evacuation order was issued, four sources said. Aramco did not comment. The Saudi-led coalition said fragments of an intercepted missile had fallen on a residential area.Earlier, the coalition had targeted a Yemen Petroleum Company fuel depot on the outskirts of Sanaa, according to Houthi-run media, and the Houthis threatened Saudi oil facilities in response. The group has spent a week firing missiles and drones at Saudi targets, including Riyadh’s international airport. Trump accused the Houthis of deliberately trying to push up oil prices ahead of the US midterm elections and said he would make a decision on Iran very soon. Separately, reports said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had discussed with Trump last week the possibility of a joint operation against Iranian military and nuclear targets, a call that came before Trump said he would not strike Iran ahead of the midterms. Iranian authorities said a tanker they described as violating rules caught fire in the eastern Strait of Hormuz.On the supply side, OPEC said OPEC+ production rose sharply in September, driven by Saudi Arabia lifting crude output to around 8.4 million barrels per day from around 6.2 million in August, despite continued disruption to Hormuz shipments. Around a fifth of global oil supply moved through the strait before the US and Israel attacked Iran in February. OPEC also trimmed its 2026 demand growth forecast for a sixth consecutive month while raising its outlook for next year, citing the need to rebuild depleted inventories.In a further sign of widening geopolitical strain, Britain’s domestic intelligence chief said Russia and Iran were stepping up hybrid warfare campaigns in the UK. With the Dhahran reports landing late in the session, traders will look to the Asian open for the first market verdict on the risk to Saudi infrastructure. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.