USD/JPY Long: Price Holds Above Wedge SupportU.S. DOLLAR / JAPANESE YENFX_IDC:USDJPYNouzTraderUSD/JPY edged higher, trading near the mid-158.00s throughout the Asian session on Wednesday, October 14, 2026. The spot price held firm near the monthly record high touched last week. USDJPY ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ US Monetary Policy & CPI Release Tonight: December Rate Hike Speculation (90%) US interest rate outlook and key data catalysts for the week: - ⚡US Consumer Price Index (CPI) Release Tonight: Markets are focused on the US CPI inflation figures (consensus forecasts Core CPI at 2.5% YoY). If inflation exceeds estimates due to the energy price surge following the Strait of Hormuz shock, expectations for a Fed benchmark rate hike at the December meeting will solidify above 90%, potentially driving the US Dollar to new record highs. ✅ Japanese Macro Factors: BoJ Officials' Reports & MoF FX Intervention Threat From Tokyo, monetary policy dynamics and currency market conditions are sending mixed signals: - ⚡BoJ Reluctance on Back-to-Back Rate Hikes: Internal sources confirm BoJ officials are hesitant to implement consecutive (back-to-back) benchmark rate hikes in quick succession to avoid shocking domestic financial markets, even though the long-term monetary normalization path remains intact. This report has dampened expectations for a BoJ rate hike as early as the October meeting. - ⚡MoF FX Intervention Watch near 159.00–160.00: With the spot price nearing the psychological 158.75–160.00 range, market participants remain wary of potential direct intervention (such as a "rate check") by Japan's Ministry of Finance (MoF), thereby curbing unchecked bullish speculation. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Price Action Analysis (H4 Timeframe) The H4 structure reveals price movement compressed within an Ascending Wedge / Contracting Wedge pattern. This compression is characterized by the formation of higher highs and higher lows that are narrowing as they approach the local resistance ceiling in the 158.500 – 158.700 range. Current Price Action: At the 158.187 price level, the most recent H4 candle is consolidating near the lower trendline support of the wedge pattern. Buyers remain active in defending the local SBR (Support-turned-Resistance) structure above 158.000; however, selling pressure in the 158.500 range is beginning to show signs of upward momentum exhaustion. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Key Zones: - ⚡Resistance / Supply Zone: The 158.500 – 158.700 range (upper wedge trendline & nearest local resistance), as well as the green lines at 159.056 and 159.944 (Major Supply Zone ceiling / Structural High target). - ⚡Support / Demand Zone: The wedge's lower trendline range of 157.800 – 158.000 (SBR area & nearest local support where the price is resting), the green line at 156.364 (middle gray box / Major Demand Zone), and the green lines from 154.821 to 153.348 (macro support floor). ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Elliott Wave Analysis Mapping the wave cycle movement on the H4 timeframe: - ⚡Wave Structure: The impulsive rally from the 153.348 low toward the 159.000-level high is calculated as Wave 1 (or a macro Wave A). The current "Ascending Wedge" compression pattern, situated between 157.500 and 158.700, is identified as the completion of Wave 4 (a corrective wave taking the form of an Ending Diagonal or Contracting Triangle pullback). - ⚡Current Status: Consolidation above the wedge's lower trendline (158.000) confirms that the Wave 4 correction is in its final accumulation phase; the market is preparing to launch the initial stage of the impulsive expansion for the concluding Wave 5. - ⚡Projection: Price action is projected to break out of this wedge compression and bounce upward, initiating the impulsive Wave 5 thrust. This move aims to test and breach the 158.700 ceiling, cross the LVN zone to test the upper limit of the Major Supply Zone (marked by the green line at 159.056), and ultimately target an extension toward the record high of 159.944.