Brent: back above $100 – up 50% from the July lowBRENT CRUDE OILTVC:UKOILJonahHaBrent has climbed from its July low of $70.1 back to $106 – a gain of about 50% in three months. The summer pullback, when prices fell back to pre-war levels, has fully reversed. The path this year (front-month Brent, month-end close): Feb 73.2 (pre-war) · Mar 103.5 (intraday high 119.5) · Apr 110.9 · May 91.9 · Jun 73.4 · Jul 91.0 · Aug 90.7 · Sep 97.9 · Oct so far 106 What the futures chart doesn't show: physical oil is even tighter. The World Bank's spot average for Brent was $116.8 in September – almost $19 above where the front-month future closed the month. Buyers are paying a large premium for barrels they can get now. Why the Strait of Hormuz matters so much: 11% of the world's crude oil exports and 10% of its natural gas exports come from states whose entire coast lies behind the strait. They have no other sea route (CEPII BACI, 2024). On the chart: A modified Schiff pitchfork drawn from the 2020 low ($16), the 2022 high ($139) and the December 2025 low ($58.7) frames the whole cycle. The war spike in March reached $119.5 – right at the pitchfork's median line – and reversed from there. The July low of $70.1 held almost exactly at the 0.786 retracement of the rise from December to March ($71.7). Price is now at $106, below the median line again. The box marks the area around $114–117 where the 0.886 retracement of the March–July drop ($113.9) meets the median line. A move through it would be a first since the war began; a rejection would look like March. That is the area I'm watching – I hold no position in Brent. What to watch next on the macro side: – Weekly US crude inventories (EIA, Wednesdays) – US inflation data and its energy component – The Fed decision on 28 October Spot prices: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet, CC BY 4.0). This is chart and market context, not a trade recommendation.