Discussions on the India-US trade deal have moved to Washington, and a meeting of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump is likely on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in December.Against this backdrop, The Indian Express spoke to Mark Linscott, former Assistant US Trade Representative for South and Central Asian Affairs and lead for India trade discussions, about where the trade deal talks stand, and whether the Modi-Trump meeting could lead to a breakthrough.Now Senior Advisor with the US India Strategic Partnership Forum, Linscott is leading efforts to advance US-India trade.What is your reading of the situation where both sides have said that the negotiations have reached a point where no more discussions are happening and it is not imminent?I don’t think that’s the case. When we talk about BTA (Bilateral Trade Agreement), what we are actually talking about, most immediately, is the interim agreement. The meetings on the margins of the G20 trade ministerial in Milwaukee were very positive. The discussions were then moved to Washington. Mark Linscott, former Assistant US Trade Representative for South and Central Asian Affairs and lead for India trade discussions. (Express photo)The fact that the two sides spent a significant amount of time together in the last two weeks was an important signal that there is forward progress. However, it doesn’t make the issues any less complicated or more solvable.Do you think there is still a probability of something formalising when the leaders probably meet for G20 in December?Story continues below this adWhen leaders are planning to meet, that provides a lot of impetus to develop deliverables. It’s an obvious goal to get some things done. I do think that the interim agreement is very close. There are a couple of complicated questions on how India can be confident of assurances of a preferential tariff under an interim agreement. If there’s the will, there definitely is a way to get to an agreement by the leaders’ meeting.Must Read | Why India-US trade deal remains elusive despite signs of progressThe India-UK trade deal just went live. Does that put more pressure on Washington?The negotiation between the US and India has its own track. Each side sees the value of it for the other. If they don’t eventually reach agreement on an interim deal, each side will be in a worse position than they otherwise would be.India has been negotiating a lot of preferential agreements with other partners, so has the Trump administration. But if the US and India can’t do the same, it’s a less level playing field for each of the other markets.Story continues below this adFrom the American point of view, does the deal with India mean access to a market or a manufacturing alternative to China?Most immediately, it’s the market access benefits. And that involves tariffs and certain priority non-tariff barriers. For an interim agreement, they’re not doing everything. But there’s been focus on select issues that have been viewed as trade barriers. America could benefit by resolving those, lowering some tariffs and having that increased market access in India.Under the Trump administration, India has faced higher tariffsCertainly last year, when things got very bad. Minister (Piyush) Goyal has been very clear that whatever the tariff agreed, it has to be preferential for India compared to other major competitors. The agreement would be a strong signal that the US and India are strategic partners, that they can move ahead together on a full range of issues.Five rounds of negotiations have happened. What is actually done and what is stuck?Story continues below this adMinister Goyal several weeks ago noted that the deal is basically done and dusted, which is a bit definitive. I think there’s still a process to translate agreements in principle to legal text, because at the end of the day, the interim agreement will be viewed as legally binding. They’ve left the really hard areas in the trade agreement to the next phases of negotiations.India has said that agricultural products and dairy are a red line. How do you see it?This is an interim agreement, a phase one negotiation. Consequently, the most sensitive areas, and that includes certain agricultural commodities, are likely to be left to another phase. I don’t think we’ll see much on dairy in an interim agreement.What about the Russian oil factor? That must be part of the conversation, especially now with the SRIA Act.Story continues below this adIt’s probably part of the conversation. And in some respects, it may be a replay, hopefully a less dramatic one, of the situation we had last year, where the US applied a high reciprocal tariff (on India), which was later struck down by the Supreme Court. But then there was the 25 per cent tariff. It was not a good moment in the trade relationship. But the two sides did resolve that in February. And it required the leaders to engage directly on that issue.Since they were able to come to an understanding back then, it is a good sign that they can work this out in present circumstances. And the President has lots of flexibility under the Lindsey Graham Act. There’s certainly been signs that the trend lines in terms of Indian purchases from Russia are reversing course. It’s also an important factor that India has been increasing purchases of energy from the US, and even Venezuela.But Washington has okayed its own sourcing of crude oil from Russia. So how does that come together?For India, that’s a relevant question. Otherwise, no comment from me; it’s still a late-breaking development.Story continues below this adEvery trade deal conversation between Washington and Delhi would, in a way, be about China – be it semiconductors or critical minerals. Is this BTA fundamentally a de-risking strategy for both sides?lot of countries around the world are de-risking, there are vulnerabilities in relying too heavily on China. I do expect that a priority for India is ultimately that the top-line tariff it agrees to is lower than what China gets. There are other countries that India cares about in terms of assuring a preferential tariff, but centrally, China.If the agreement keeps getting delayed, who loses what?The US, as long as it doesn’t have a trade deal with India, is not going to have the same kind of access that the UK or EU or the EFTA countries will have. There’s a real benefit for the US to be able to have that same kind of access, maybe better access in certain sectors. And the same is true for India. If it’s facing a higher tariff in the US compared to other countries, that has economic consequences.As a trade negotiator yourself some years ago, what do you have to say about the Indian negotiators?Story continues below this adTop-notch professionals, very experienced. They do their homework. And there’s a strong commitment to concluding the negotiations, getting outcomes, while protecting Indian interests and advancing Indian interests. It’s a set of highly skilled negotiators on both sides, but definitely on the Indian side.