CHRISTIE ASCHWANDEN2026年10月16日 Ricardo TomásThis article is part of our Longevity special section on living longer and healthier.本文是我们关于如何活得更长久、更健康的“长寿”专题的一部分。In 2000, Steven Austad, a biologist, made a provocative claim: “The first 150-year-old person is probably alive right now.”2000年，生物学家史蒂文·奥斯塔德提出了一个颇具争议的说法：“世界上第一个将活到150岁的人现在很可能已经出生了。”It was a bold proclamation, but Dr. Austad, who studies aging at the University of Alabama, Birmingham, was (and remains) optimistic that science will find new ways to extend life. It’s a confidence shared by a seemingly endless stream of influencers and futurists, some of whom make even wilder predictions. Aubrey de Grey, a biomedical gerontologist and the founder of the SENS Research Foundation, claims that there’s a greater than 50 percent chance that a 40-year-old living today will never die of old age.这一预言可谓大胆，但在阿拉巴马大学伯明翰分校研究衰老的奥斯塔德博士当时乐观地认为，科学将找到延长寿命的新方法，而且他至今仍持这一看法。似乎数不胜数的网红和未来学家也抱有同样的信心，其中一些人甚至做出了更为惊人的预测。生物医学老年学家、SENS研究基金会创始人奥布里·德格雷声称，如今40岁的人有超过50%的可能性永远不会因衰老而死亡。But how realistic are these tales of impending longevity? How far can we really extend the human life span?但是，这些关于人类即将实现长寿的说法究竟有多少可信度？我们究竟能将人类的寿命延长到什么多少？阿拉巴马大学伯明翰分校的衰老研究专家史蒂文·奥斯塔德博士曾声称，当世人群中将有世界上第一个活到150岁的人。 Oliver Parini for The New York TimesWhy do people age?人为什么会衰老？Throughout our lives, our bodies are continually healing themselves. What we perceive as aging is really the inflection point at which we’re no longer able to repair damage as fast as it accumulates, said Jamie Justice, an adjunct professor at Wake Forest University School of Medicine and the executive director of XPRIZE Healthspan.维克森林大学医学院兼职教授、XPRIZE Healthspan执行主任杰米·贾斯蒂斯说，在我们的一生中，身体一直在不断自我修复。我们所感知的衰老其实是身体修复损伤的速度开始赶不上损伤累积速度的那个转折点。Over the last few decades, scientists have identified about a dozen hallmarks of aging — biological changes that befall the human body as it ages. The simplest of these are akin to wear and tear. For instance, chromosomes, after a lifetime of dividing every time a cell splits, deteriorate as the protective caps at their ends, called telomeres, get shorter and shorter. When telomeres become too short, chromosomes stop dividing properly.过去几十年，科学家已经确定了大约十几项衰老的标志性特征，也就是人体随着年龄增长而发生的生物学变化。其中最简单的一些类似于磨损。例如，细胞每次分裂时，染色体都要复制并分离。经过一生中无数次这样的过程，染色体末端被称为端粒的保护结构会越来越短，染色体也随之逐渐退化。当端粒变得过短时，染色体就无法正常分离。Similarly, mitochondria, which produce energy inside cells, become less efficient over time. These changes can mean oxygen is used less efficiently in your muscles.同样，细胞内负责产生能量的线粒体效率也会随着时间推移而下降。这些变化可能意味着你的肌肉利用氧气的效率降低。Proteins, which are crucial to almost every process in the human body, can become damaged or misfolded with age, increasing the risk of diseases like Alzheimer’s. Breakdowns in DNA-repair mechanisms can allow cancers to form.蛋白质对人体几乎所有生理过程都至关重要，但随着年龄增长，蛋白质可能受损或发生错误折叠，从而增加阿尔茨海默病等疾病的风险。DNA修复机制出现故障则可能使癌症得以发生。Sometimes cells don’t die but stop working as they should, and when this happens they’re said to be senescent, said Stephen Kritchevsky, a professor of gerontology and geriatrics at Wake Forest University School of Medicine. Senescent cells exist in a sort of zombie state: They use energy but they aren’t performing their original function. Some of these cells may secrete chemicals that promote inflammation and tissue dysfunction, which contributes to aging-related diseases like osteoarthritis, atherosclerosis and cancer.维克森林大学医学院老年学和老年医学教授斯蒂芬·克里切夫斯基说，有时细胞并不会死亡，而是停止正常发挥作用，这种情况被称为细胞衰老。衰老细胞处于一种类似“僵尸”的状态：它们消耗能量，却不再履行原有功能。其中一些细胞还可能分泌促进炎症和组织功能障碍的化学物质，从而促成骨关节炎、动脉粥样硬化和癌症等与衰老相关的疾病。And then there are stem cells, which are critical for tissue repair, and can become depleted over time, reducing the body’s ability to perform regular maintenance and repair, Dr. Justice said.贾斯蒂斯博士说，还有对组织修复至关重要的干细胞。随着时间推移，干细胞可能逐渐耗竭，削弱身体日常维护和自我修复的能力。杰米·贾斯蒂斯是维克森林大学医学院的兼职教授，也是XPRIZE Healthspan的执行主任。 Kristin Braga Wright for The New York TimesCan these processes be reversed?这些过程能够逆转吗？Researchers understand a lot about how these hallmarks work, which is allowing them to develop ways to slow some parts of the aging process in lab animals, said Dr. John Newman, an associate professor at the Buck Institute for Research on Aging. “We can identify them. We can study them. In the laboratory, we can manipulate them,” he said.巴克衰老研究所副教授约翰·纽曼博士说，研究人员已经相当了解这些衰老特征的作用机制，因此得以开发出一些方法，在实验动物身上减缓某些衰老过程。“我们能够识别它们，研究它们。在实验室里，我们还能对它们进行干预，”他说。For instance, there’s a lot of excitement about a class of experimental, anti-aging drugs called senolytics, which aim to clear senescent cells from the body or dilute them to limit their damage.例如，一类名为“衰老细胞清除剂”的实验性抗衰老药物引起了广泛关注。这类药物旨在清除体内的衰老细胞，或减少其数量，以限制它们造成的损害。Another approach focuses on epigenetics, in which scientists examine the biochemical markers that attach to DNA and regulate gene expression. Reprogramming these systems is an attempt to make your cells believe they’re younger than they are, Dr. Kritchevsky said. At least two biotech firms are testing drugs that target this process.另一种方法着眼于表观遗传学，也就是说，科学家研究附着在DNA上、调控基因表达的生化标记。克里切夫斯基博士说，对这些系统重新编程就是试图让细胞认为自己比实际年龄更年轻。目前至少有两家生物科技公司正在测试针对这一过程的药物。Several drugs that are already approved by the Food and Drug Administration have also shown hints they might slow aging-related processes, like inflammation. Studies are underway to test three diabetes drugs for longevity benefits — metformin, SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP-1s.几种已经获得美国食品药品监督管理局批准的药物也显示出可能减缓炎症等衰老相关过程的迹象。目前，研究人员正在测试三类糖尿病药物是否具有延长寿命的益处，包括二甲双胍、SGLT2抑制剂和GLP-1类药物。XPRIZE Healthspan is also funding work on drugs that affect metabolism, inflammation, tissue repair and neural protection. The Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health (ARPA-H) is similarly backing research on biomarkers and protocols for testing anti-aging therapies.XPRIZE Healthspan也在资助影响新陈代谢、炎症、组织修复和神经保护的药物研究。美国卫生高级研究计划局也在支持有关生物标志物和抗衰老疗法测试方案的研究。So will we ever halt aging?那么，我们最终能够阻止衰老吗？Exciting as this is, much of this longevity work focuses on health span — helping people to live more healthily into their 80s, 90s and even 100s — rather than extending the human life span. Researchers continue to debate how possible that will be in the future. The problem is that their answers are often hypothetical and impossible to prove.尽管这些研究令人兴奋，但许多长寿研究关注的是健康寿命，也就是帮助人们在80岁、90岁甚至100岁时仍然保持健康，而不是延长人类的总体寿命。研究人员对于未来究竟能在多大程度上延长寿命仍争论不休。问题在于，他们的答案往往只是假设，而且无法得到验证。“If somebody says they have something that’s going to make you live 50 years longer, then you have to wait 50 years to find out whether or not it’s actually true,” said S. Jay Olshansky, a professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of Illinois Chicago.“如果有人说他们有一种东西能让你多活50年，那你就得等50年才能知道它是否真的有效，”伊利诺伊大学芝加哥分校流行病学和生物统计学教授S·杰伊·奥尔尚斯基说。In the end, aging is unlikely to be halted through any single breakthrough.归根结底，单靠某一项突破性成果恐怕无法阻止衰老。“There’s not just one way that people age, it’s a bunch of systems all stacking on top of each other,” said Coleen Murphy, director of the Lewis-Sigler Institute for Integrative Genomics at Princeton University. “If you cure one, there’s always going to be some next one,” she said.“人并不是只通过一种方式衰老，而是许多系统的问题相互叠加，”普林斯顿大学刘易斯—西格勒综合基因组学研究所所长科琳·墨菲说。“即使你解决了一个问题，总还会有下一个问题，”她说。Kidney, heart and knee replacements have become routine, for example, and it’s possible we’ll get better at swapping out other aging human parts, like bones or muscles. But there are limits to what cells and organs we can keep repairing.例如，肾脏、心脏和膝关节置换已经成为常规医疗手段，未来我们或许会更擅长替换骨骼或肌肉等其他老化的人体部位。但细胞和器官能够被不断修复的程度终究存在极限。“Some cells can’t replace themselves,” Dr. Murphy said, giving as examples most muscle and brain cells.“有些细胞无法自我更新，”墨菲博士说，并以大多数肌肉细胞和脑细胞为例。The brain poses a particular challenge, Dr. Austad said. Most people don’t want to live beyond 100 if their minds aren’t intact, he said, and even if someone could get a new brain, are they still the same person?奥斯塔德博士说，大脑带来了尤其棘手的挑战。大多数人都不希望在心智已经不健全的情况下活到100多。他说，即使一个人能够换上新的大脑，那还是原来的那个人吗？After Dr. Austad made his proclamation about the world’s first 150-year-old, Dr. Olshansky bet him $150 that he was wrong. The bet stipulated that the person must also be of sound mind for Dr. Austad to win. The money is currently held in an investment fund, to be paid out to the winner (or his descendants) in 2150.奥斯塔德博士提出世界上将出现第一个150岁寿星的预言后，奥尔尚斯基博士拿出150美元与他打赌，认为他的预测是错的。赌约规定，要让奥斯塔德获胜，那位150岁的老人还必须神志清醒。这笔钱目前存放在一个投资基金中，将于2150年支付给获胜者（或其后代）。But for now, the strongest evidence that we cannot live that long might be the simple fact that nobody on record has. The age of the oldest documented living person has not risen since 1997, when a Frenchwoman, Jeanne Calment, died at the purported age of 122. (There’s some debate about her true age.)但就目前而言，我们无法活那么久的最有力证据，可能就是一个简单的事实：有记录以来，还没有人活到150岁。自1997年以来，有记录可查的最长寿命纪录一直没有被打破。那一年，法国女性让娜·卡尔芒去世，据称享年122岁。（她的真实年龄存在一些争议。）“Nobody has lived even 120 years since then,” Dr. Austad said.“自那以后，甚至没有人活到120岁，”奥斯塔德博士说。翻译：杜然点击查看本文英文版。