(Oil & Gas 360) – United States Energy Price Outlook: Natural Gas Outlook Supply/Demand Assessment October 2026Historical supply, demand and inventory data on the United States natural gas market is from the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s September 2026 Electric Power Monthly, Energy Review and Natural Gas Monthly. The Smolinski natural gas strip price is the 12-month moving average of New York Mercantile Exchange natural gas futures prices 7 to 18 months into the future. OSX is the Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index. XOI is the American Stock Exchange’s Oil Index.Strait of Hormuz/peace efforts, much uncertain and Summer/Fall thus far wet-minimizing provide buy-low opportunity for oil & natural gas. Winter happening had energy stocks up much. That & Epic Fury had prices peak March 27. Peace deflated the Oil Index (XOI) in June. Terrorizing persisting reducing oil supplies more has it up 81.6% year-to-date (YTD) and the Oil & Gas Exploration Index (XOP) up 47.2% yesterday. Summer heat localized and wet where many people live have the Nat Gas Index (XNG) yesterday up 19.7%. Low oil & natural gas prices since 2014 fueling everything else UP Wonderfully much since then, but infrastructure trends and Real Peace being pursued having oils cost high has the NASDAQ yesterday up 14.9% and S&P 500 up 13.1% YTD.Powerful military and economic treatments to finally end the Cancer of Terrorists killing and destroying has side effects worth incurring. Fury battling used when/how needed, has jumped oil’s cost and natural gas cost Over There. Ending decades of terrorizing, worth the side effects needed to be lived through, has us predict much needed, great success. The enormous magnitude and more duration of Iranian Rulers and cohorts responses confirm the need to finally end their decades of effort killing/maiming and destroying. Much learned that is now killing cancer, encourages our assessment: much learned and capabilities have deathly-terrorizing ending soon.“Eliminate fossil fuels” still popular keeps us predicting more episodes, of those energy bearish, caught short by Climate and pent-up demand stimulating. High CO2 coincides with warming; it doesn’t cause Climate Change. The notion still too popular, “Mankind’s CO2 emissions are so very dangerous” encouraged by extensive coverage of storms, weather extremes, and damage continues discouraging/hindering conventional fossil-fuel supply investment. Opposition in California, to a restored offshore pipeline fueling it, instead of higher cost and lower-value-to-it foreign supply, is a good example. Nevertheless, more encompassing research shows CO2 fear is false. Temperatures rise in the Spring despite all the green leaves increasing oxygen content and reducing CO2 content. We predict and see wisdom winning: handle Climate damage before and when it occurs. Dictating $Trillions to cut CO2 required believing 1) new Climate Change can’t be lived through and, 2) despite inability to Change The Climate (except by Elijah), “Investing” $Trillions will make it Not Change.Electricity high value but still poorly understood/taken for granted highlights more needed, + much more natural-gas generated. More learning, how things work and why, are and will be, driving energy stock prices/value UP much more. More are learning high-cost, new-infrastructure Climate-Fear needed makes no sense. Plus, the excitement and potential of Artificial Intelligence (AI) prospering much more requires much more electricity and rapidly so. Nuclear not fast, natural gas fueled powerplants quickest in service, most economical and the U.S. resource base huge give the U.S. the major advantage, yet to be appreciated. Conventional energy the only economical way to prosper many more keeps us predicting better is the future: many more Participate enjoying Doing/Being/Having More, with 1) tariff efforts increasing trade, 2) production growth slow has natural gas & oil rebound to Up a long time, 3) man-made Climate Change is a myth and 4) more learning: safe, “Thou-Shalt-Not-Murder, Steal” lives need ruling-elite power reduced/removed, with the effort against Iran a positive example. The U.S. a major energy importer in 2008 had more cash leaving with its energy price jump. The U.S. a major exporter now has much cash coming here instead with this oil price jump and natural gas increase to come. Mild still & uncertainty high tempering but inflation needing to/will be solved keeps us rating crude-oil, oil-focused E&P, Drilling & Oil Service & supplying Natural Gas + now Oil Refining Overweight Strong Buy.This price $23.61 2/17/21, a new record high confirmed firming plus $30.72 1/23/26. But rapid production growth, and Winters delightfully mild pressured down to a $1.24 low March 2024, and extra mild to a lower $1.23 November 2024 low. That low was followed by the jump to $10.07 1/17/25.Climate Change still minimizing, has inventory high. That and economic growth fear has kept this price less than $3.40. However, gas inventory showing potential demand record high is why we see the need to drill much more and predict $7+ sustained by the high value of all natural gas fuels.Figure 1A Henry Hub Spot Market Natural Gas Price. (Src: Wall Street Journal & DOE since 12/14/2015)2020’s fast collapse to -$37.63 4/20/20, which we omit, reflects The Climate mild, virus shutting in/down + oil price war production increase filling inventory to “Where do we put it?” fear. Many more living better lives, the Tariff tactic being used plus ending War has now changed to a “Where do we get it?” future of pent-up demand stimulated by recovery and Worldwide growth. Ending-war achieved plus mankind-enhancing-greatly activity enjoyed has a Drilling Boom needed.We don’t see (and pray we won’t) World War III, just War finally ended. Therefore, we predict this consensus-beating UP at $80+ for several years fueling the world, driving many more with more very good, Blessed world growth.Figure 1B West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Spot Market Price (Src: Platt’s Oilgram Price Report, NYMEX close 12/15/15 to 12/29/24 [-$37.63 4/20/20 is excluded] & spot from DOE since 1/2/24)The 2020 collapse (a recession drop) set up trending UP (from so extra low) driven by Doing again increasing in number and activity.(*) Energy Direction’s Natural Gas Index is the sum of the closing price of APA Corp. (NYSE: APA-47.23) times 2, and EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG-152.62) times 4, on 4/3/06, Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN-49.24) times 3.00507 replaced Burlington Resources times 2. On 8/9/19, the change in Coterra Energy, Equitable Corp (EQT-52.45) and Pioneer replaced Anadarko Petroleum and replaced Noble Energy since 10/5/20. 5/2/24 Antero (AR- 36.44) replaced Pioneer and 5/7/26 Comstock (CRK-$13.50) replaced Coterra to calculate the change in the new three. 1339.57 yesterday up 1,105.51, from 3/18/2020’s 234.06 low but still 29.41 below its 6/7/22 hi needs nicely more. The Oil Service Index still way low reflects many still believing little needed and finding and producing it is/will-be easy. We conclude hundreds of millions more fueled UP requires years-more Drilling-Boom/Profitable-Investing UP.Figure 2A Stock Price Index Comparisons (Indexed to 1.0 12/31/98)Winters delightfully mild set up energy’s 2023 & 24 drop followed by recession fear but powered the rest of the market UP. Buy-energy-low-opportunity is still there with war/tariff/recession/no-growth fears pressuring overdone, plus mild persisting minimizing gas demand having natural gas inventory high. However, buy-low-opportunity exaggerated extra-low set up the fast increases from the lows that will continue.Russia’s Ukraine invasion atrocious but, up to World War II not unusual, keeps us predicting UP continues. Oil needed being recognized now includes Middle East recovery and so very much repaired. Much more supply capacity for years, especially Drilling & Oil Service is needed.Figure 2B Stock Price Index Comparisons (Indexed to 1.0 12/29/23, last trading day)By oilandgas360.com contributor Michael Smolinksi with Energy DirectionsThe views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Oil & Gas 360. Please consult with a professional before making any decisions based on the information provided here. 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