NAIROBI, Kenya, Oct 15 — A year after Raila Odinga’s death, the contest to inherit his political influence is emerging as a defining feature of the realignment of forces ahead of the 2027 General Election.President William Ruto, former President Uhuru Kenyatta, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, ODM leader Oburu Oginga, Siaya Governor James Orengo, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and a younger crop of politicians are invoking different aspects of the former Prime Minister’s legacy as they position themselves for the next election.Their competing claims expose a deeper divide over what Raila represented: a political movement capable of cooperating with those in power to pursue reforms, or an opposition tradition built around challenging the government and demanding accountability.For the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), the contest is particularly consequential. Its cooperation with Ruto’s administration has opened a route to continued influence in government while exposing divisions over whether the arrangement advances or undermines the principles that sustained the party.The question is whether Raila’s influence can be transferred to another individual or political formation, or whether it rested on a combination of personal history, political organisation and relationships that cannot easily be replicated.Ruto’s opening, ODM’s dilemmaFor Ruto, Raila’s legacy offers an opportunity to justify the political cooperation that developed between the two leaders before the former Prime Minister’s death.In March 2025, the two signed a ten-point framework for cooperation covering governance reforms, devolution, youth employment, public debt, corruption and the protection of civil liberties. The agreement marked a significant shift for two politicians who had spent years on opposite sides of Kenya’s political divide.During a church service in Kisumu on September 13, Ruto acknowledged the difficulty of replacing Raila but argued that his legacy could be sustained through national development.“It may not be possible to replace the late Raila Odinga, but we can work to make sure that his legacy is carried on in the development of our nation,” the President said.Ruto’s interpretation places emphasis on cooperation, development and continuity between the government and ODM.That position has gained political significance following an announcement in August that the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and ODM had agreed to develop a joint manifesto and contest the 2027 election together. The arrangement could give Ruto access to voters who supported Raila, while allowing ODM to maintain a role in national decision-making.Senate Majority Leader Aaron Cheruiyot has also argued that Ruto has the political capacity to carry aspects of Raila’s legacy forward.Cheruiyot credited Raila’s approach to politics with helping the country avoid instability, arguing that the late leader knew when to confront the government and when to negotiate.His argument reinforces the case for political cooperation. But it also raises a difficult question for ODM: can a party that spent decades challenging successive administrations sustain its identity while supporting an incumbent president?Raila’s political career offers arguments for both sides. He repeatedly negotiated with political rivals, including entering power-sharing arrangements, but also built his national following by challenging governments and mobilising opposition to their policies.For ODM, the test is whether cooperation with Ruto can deliver tangible reforms and benefits without eroding the political identity that made the party a national force.Party leader Oburu Oginga and National Chairperson Gladys Wanga have emphasised the need to preserve ODM’s political influence as the party prepares for the next election.At a memorial event in Kakamega on October 9, Wanga reaffirmed the party’s commitment to holding free, fair and transparent nominations.ODM Party Leader Oburu Oginga/FILE“ODM will conduct free, fair and transparent nominations. I have also brought greetings from our Party Leader Oburu Odinga, and as he says, hatuwezi kuwa bila power,” she said reffering to Oginga’s famous line “we cannot be without power”.The emphasis on retaining power, however, leaves a question of purpose: what will ODM use that influence to achieve, and what will it demand in return for its cooperation with the government?Senate Minority Leader Stewart Madzayo has acknowledged the difficulty of moving forward without Raila, describing the party as having struggled but gradually stabilised.“We have been wobbly, but the ship has managed to stabilise itself,” Madzayo said, reflecting on the challenges facing the party after its leader’s death.He also said ODM would enter the 2027 General Election without a presidential candidate, but intended to field one in 2032.That position points to a long-term strategy, although the party’s immediate challenge is to manage competing expectations among members who disagree over its relationship with Ruto.The central test will be whether ODM can preserve an independent political identity, protect its reform agenda, defend its traditional constituencies and give its members a meaningful role in determining alliances and candidates.The opposition’s competing claimsWhile ODM’s leadership seeks to maintain its influence through cooperation with the government, other politicians are presenting themselves as custodians of the opposition politics associated with Raila.Among the most prominent is Sifuna, the former ODM Secretary General whose disagreements with the party leadership have evolved into a broader contest over its political direction.Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna/FILESifuna has positioned himself as a defender of Raila’s democratic aspirations, arguing that the late leader’s influence will endure through the demands for a free, democratic and accountable country that shaped his political career.“In 2027, Raila will influence the general elections because it’s the idea of the country that we wanted to see under Raila’s presidency that will still be on the ballot,” Sifuna said.He argued that Kenyans had not abandoned their aspirations for a democratic country governed by the rule of law.On October 4, Sifuna unveiled The Equitable Party as a political vehicle for his campaign, with plans to rename it the Linda Mwananchi Movement. The formation is intended to offer an alternative to the direction taken by the ODM leadership.A July survey by Trends and Insights For Africa (TIFA), cited in the debate over ODM’s internal divisions, found that 74 per cent of ODM supporters identified with the Linda Mwananchi faction, compared with 20 per cent who identified with the Linda Ground faction associated with the party leadership.The figures did not, however, establish how respondents would vote in a general election or whether support for a faction would translate into backing for Sifuna.His challenge is to turn political discontent into a durable organisation capable of competing beyond ODM’s traditional strongholds in Nyanza and Western Kenya.Oburu retains the advantage of an established party with elected leaders and grassroots networks. Sifuna must demonstrate that his appeal can extend beyond rallies and online mobilisation to a credible national political programme, alliances and electoral support.Siaya Governor Orengo, another longtime Raila ally, has also positioned himself within the emerging opposition formations and expressed interest in the presidency.Orengo’s political history connects him to the struggles for multiparty democracy and constitutional reform that helped define Raila’s public life. But his prospects, like those of other potential successors, will depend on whether he can build a sufficiently broad coalition and persuade voters that he offers a credible path forward.Embakasi East MP Babu Owino has also invoked the former Prime Minister’s legacy through the slogan “Baada ya Baba ni Babu” — after Baba comes Babu — at opposition rallies.The growing list of claimants illustrates the difficulty of transferring Raila’s influence to any one individual. His former political constituency cannot be assumed to move as a single bloc, particularly when the contenders disagree over alliances, leadership and the best route to political change.Kalonzo’s appeal to Raila’s votersWiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka is another potential inheritor of Raila’s political constituency, drawing on their long association in opposition politics and his role as the former Prime Minister’s running mate in the 2013 and 2017 presidential elections.Kalonzo has directly appealed to Raila’s supporters, arguing that having stood alongside the former Prime Minister for years, he deserves their backing in the 2027 presidential contest.Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka addresses a news confrences flanked by Linda Mwananchi leaders/FILEDuring a visit to Homa Bay in May, he told residents that he had supported Raila for 15 years and that it was now their turn to support him. He argued that he understood the late leader’s vision and wanted to fulfil it.His campaign has since extended to Bondo, where he invoked Raila’s commitment to democracy, justice and the rule of law while seeking support in the former ODM leader’s political backyard.Kalonzo has also taken charge of efforts to rebrand the Azimio coalition as the Ukombozi Alliance, positioning it as a possible vehicle for the 2027 opposition campaign.But a longstanding political partnership does not automatically confer ownership of Raila’s electoral base. Kalonzo must persuade supporters that his own political programme reflects their expectations, while overcoming disagreements within the opposition over the coalition’s structure and the process of selecting a presidential candidate.The contest with Sifuna and other opposition figures also raises the prospect of competing appeals to voters who previously rallied behind Raila. Unless these leaders can agree on a credible strategy, the political constituency they hope to inherit could become fragmented.The family name and the votersThe contest is also unfolding within the Odinga family, where the question of who should carry forward Raila’s political heritage has attracted renewed attention.During anniversary-related activities in Bondo, a section of Luo elders symbolically crowned East African Legislative Assembly MP Winnie Odinga as her father’s political heir.EALA MP Winnie Odinga/FILEThe gesture highlighted the continuing significance of the Odinga name among supporters who regard the family as central to Raila’s political history.But family lineage and political succession are not the same thing.Raila built his influence through decades of political organising, detention during the struggle for multiparty democracy, successive presidential campaigns, coalition negotiations and his ability to connect with supporters well beyond his home region.His political authority was shaped by personal relationships, shared struggles and a distinctive public identity developed over many years. Winnie and other members of the family may inherit part of that historical connection, but translating it into political authority will require them to establish their own relationships with voters and demonstrate how they intend to advance the causes associated with their father.The more consequential question is what Raila’s former supporters expect from those seeking to inherit his influence.For some, remaining close to government may be a practical way to secure development, representation and a role in national decision-making. Others may see the continuation of Raila’s legacy in the preservation of an opposition capable of holding the government accountable.Speaking about the political significance of Raila’s name, Senate Speaker Amason Kingi argued that it could influence the direction of the next election.“In the coming polls, Raila’s name and his praises in a great way will determine the will of the people. If his influence is inherited by one political group, then it means the majority of the voters will incline towards that side,” Kingi said, adding that Ruto had taken up the role of ensuring Raila’s legacy continued.Kingi’s assessment points to the electoral value politicians attach to Raila’s memory. But it remains a political argument rather than evidence that his supporters will transfer their allegiance to any particular leader or party.The 2027 testThe struggle over Raila’s legacy reflects a wider contest over the direction of Kenyan politics. His career combined opposition activism with periods of cooperation with political rivals. He negotiated alliances, entered government, withdrew from partnerships and repeatedly sought to reshape the political system through constitutional and institutional reform.That history gives the competing claimants room to invoke different aspects of his record. Ruto can point to cooperation and development; ODM’s leadership can emphasise retaining political influence; Sifuna and other opposition figures can invoke democratic reform and accountability; while Kalonzo can draw on his longstanding partnership with the former Prime Minister.But invoking Raila’s name is not the same as inheriting his influence.The decisive question is whether the politicians claiming his legacy can articulate a coherent programme, sustain public trust and build political organisations capable of translating that legacy into electoral support.For ODM, the 2027 General Election will test whether the movement Raila built can function as an institution beyond its founding leader. For the wider opposition, it will test whether the constituencies he brought together can unite around a new political arrangement or pursue competing paths.Sifuna has argued that Raila’s aspirations will continue to influence the next election because the desire for a different kind of country has not disappeared with his death.“Raila’s idealism will still have a major impact going into the elections because the yearning and the expectations that the country had are not going to go away,” he said.“Many of us, me included, believe that it’s a duty to do whatever it is we can do to ensure that the country that Raila wanted is actually achieved,” he added.Raila’s death has created an opening for new political leaders, but it has also exposed the difficulty of separating a movement from the individual who gave it much of its identity.For ODM, the next election will test whether it can preserve its influence while navigating cooperation with Ruto’s administration and dissent among supporters who want a more assertive opposition.For those seeking to inherit Raila’s wider political constituency, the challenge is equally demanding: they must demonstrate that their appeal extends beyond association with his name and translates into organisation, public trust and electoral support.The contest will therefore be decided not simply by who claims Raila’s legacy, but by who can persuade Kenyans that their political aspirations remain represented.