Dealing with Donald Trump, as even America’s long-cherished alliance partners have learnt the hard way, is often an exercise in the impossible. More so when there are few points of leverage to be exploited.Also Read | Best of Both Sides on India-US ties: New Delhi must play the long gameMany in India have viewed Washington’s recent moves as pressure tactics of a mercurial administration. They have held on to the hope that over the longer term, the convergence of strategic interests between the two countries will prevail over any short-term ruptures in the relationship. But that may no longer be the case. The India-US relationship has taken a turn for the worse.AdvertisementThere are economic and strategic reasons why there appears to have been a fundamental rethink in Washington over the relationship and why American policy appears to have shifted accordingly. The arm-twisting over oil imports, the Russia sanctions law, which many Democrats voted for, and the attack on IT services and skilled labour mobility are all part of a broader pattern. The problem is larger. Which is why it may outlive the current administration.One, the US has been looking for ways to de-risk, if not decouple, from China. Beijing is no doubt the strategic threat for Washington. By looking to shift manufacturing operations to India, it was trying to build an alternative, friendlier source of production to secure supply chains. But that idea does not appear to have taken off. India’s China plus one play has not materialised so far. With the exception of Apple and a few others, not many have shifted to the country at the level envisioned. Simply put, the Indian economy hasn’t really lived up to its expectations.Two, with the rapid development and deployment of AI, the need to outsource to Indian IT firms may well appear, at least from Washington’s point of view, to be much less now. The labour cost arbitrage is only likely to whittle down further. With no stranglehold over any chokepoint, India also remains significantly behind the technology frontier. Moreover, the inherent conflict between Make in India and the decision to favour certain Indian business houses has put off not only domestic firms, but foreign companies (read US) as well.AdvertisementThree, the US may have concluded that India simply does not have the heft that Washington expected it to acquire to counter China. It has neither the economic depth nor the strategic strength to serve as a counterweight. The chasm between the country’s geopolitical aspirations and its economic capabilities has only deepened. Moreover, some of its recent strategic choices have also been at odds with Washington’s interests.All this implies that if earlier the US exercised restraint and gave India special treatment — it has not been sanctioned under CAATSA for purchasing the S-400 missile defence system from Russia — it is now far less likely to do so, especially as its strategic and economic calculus changes, and India fails to develop any sources of leverage. Cooperation, even if pursued at times, is unlikely to lead to greater strategic coherence or convergence.Alongside, the shift to a more transactional relationship framework under Donald Trump has meant that every action — or inaction for that matter — invites a response, which may, at times, seem disproportionate.What India does, for instance, in the domestic economy has often much larger unappreciated consequences: You can’t discriminate against big American firms and expect no backlash now, especially with a White House that is more closely aligned with big business. If India has its oligarchs, so does the US. And they can also retaliate.And if for some reason the trade deal is not concluding, then perhaps the US administration has simply asked itself: What is there for us to lose? If that is indeed the case, then, are all bets off?you may likeThere are few indications that a future Vance/Rubio administration or a left-leaning Democratic White House would substantially change tack, elevate India’s strategic importance, and accord it more weight in economic and foreign policy affairs.In any scenario, Delhi has to protect its national interests. But it will also need to make strategic choices. India depends on the US for tech, capital and markets, on China for critical inputs and final goods and on Russia for energy and defence imports. It needs all three. Exhortations to nationalism will not change that reality.The writer is senior associate editor, The Indian Express, ishan.bakshi@expressindia.com