Oil | At the Wall of Resistance

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Oil | At the Wall of ResistanceWest Texas OilOANDA:WTICOUSDROW_PartnersKey Observations: Spot vs Futures: While the broader structure tracks closely, local divergence shows up around contract roll periods and broker fed volume feeds (noted at the orange arrows). Notice the variance in pullbacks and volume spikes between the exchange traded tape and spot feed. Ascending Channel Structure: Crude remains inside the upward sloping channel from the summer base, but price action is pressing directly into multimonth horizontal resistance ($98-$100 area). Volume & Momentum Check: Last week’s rally back toward the highs lacked heavy, convincing volume expansion. Except crude futures which were likely skewed because of options expiration. Geopolitical & Fundamental Headwinds: Any cooling of geopolitical friction or diplomatic agreements involving Russian supply will likely trigger immediate unwinding of the risk premium. Opinion Game Plan: Bias: Sidelined. Execution: Flat. Closed out current oil positions. Not chasing strength into overhead supply. Risk/reward here is poor without a confirmed breakout or a cleaner reset lower. Waiting for price to confirm direction at resistance before reengaging.