Week in Review: What We Learned from the Jockey Club’s Report of Mares Bred

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Last week, The Jockey Club released its annual Report of Mares Bred (RMBs), which is used to estimate the following year's foal crop. And, once again, the numbers were not good. The estimate for the foal crop of 2027 is 16,500, a decrease of 500 from the year before. While 500 fewer foals may not seem like a lot, a troubling pattern continues.The 2017 North American foal crop was 22,256, meaning the total will have declined by about 26 percent during a 10-year period. Twenty years ago, the foal crop was 37,501, so the 2027 figure represents a decline of about 56 percent over that period. It just keeps getting worse, and there is no end in sight.You don't need to be reminded about what this has meant to the sport: smaller fields, a less attractive betting product, racetracks reduced to running two or three days a week because that's the only way they can hope to fill cards, and racetracks closing.Dig a little deeper into the numbers and you can see what is happening:The Kentucky breeding industry has taken some hits, but it remains healthy. A total of 16,677 mares were bred in 2026 in Kentucky, which represents 69.68 percent of all mares bred in the U.S., Canada and Puerto Rico. That 21,594 mares were bred in the state in 2007 is troubling, but Kentucky has only strengthened its position as the center of the breeding universe. Ten years ago, it accounted for 50.3 percent of all mares bred. Twenty years ago, the number was just 35.4 percent.The number of stallions standing in Kentucky is on the decline. There were 187 in 2026, down from 249 ten years earlier. But what seems to be happening is that the less popular stallions are being weeded out, while the top stallions have never been more in demand. The average book size for a Kentucky-based stallion in 2026 was 89.2. Twenty years ago, it was 55.1.It is the declines in the breeding industries in the regional markets that are the main culprits when it comes to the overall declines in the foal crop. But which regional markets? Some are doing fine. There was a 14.2 percent increase in the number of mares bred in New York when comparing 2026 to 2025. The number of mares bred in New York has increased by 34 percent since 2021. Others are not. Maryland, a state that has year-round racing and a lucrative program for state-breds, saw a 10.3 percent decline in the number of mares bred this year.Tom Ryan, the managing partner of SF Bloodstock and racing manager for SF Racing, picked up on the problems the regional markets are having and suggested in a tweet that the tracks and breeding programs in the Mid-Atlantic states join forces.He proposed: “A voluntary pilot in the Mid-Atlantic, where states already share horses. Each state keeps its own breeder program and home-state status. State-breds from participating states can enter a limited number of designated races anywhere in the region. Breeders earn a clear, capped award when their horses do well.”Tom Ryan (first right) | KeenelandHe continued: “Right now, most states go it alone. Each state pays its breeders mainly when their horses race in that state. That keeps every program small. Take a Maryland-bred filly. Her best paydays are in Maryland's state-bred races. If Maryland doesn't have a race that fits her, she has few good options. Fewer options make her worth less at the sale, and her breeder is less likely to breed that mare again.”That would be a start, but the Mid-Atlantic states are not the main problem. The breeding industries in the states where people are clearly losing confidence in the future of racing are the ones that are suffering the most.In Florida, the number of mares bred in 2026 was down to 909.  In 2017, the number was 2,311. There were 1,091 mares bred in California in 2026. Ten years ago, that number was 2,675. Only 94 mares were bred in Texas in 2026. As recently as 2013, that number was 1,070.Then there are New Jersey and Illinois. There is no longer any racing left in the Chicago area and New Jersey racing is suffering mightily as it tries to go it alone without casino revenue. Only 30 mares were bred in New Jersey in 2026. The number of mares bred in Illinois this year was 13.Another Weekend, Another Graded Stakes Win for Saffie Joseph Jr.Saffie Joseph Jr. might not get the acclaim that goes to the likes of Chad Brown, Todd Pletcher, Bob Baffert, Brad Cox, Mark Casse and a few others, but you can make the argument no trainer is having a better year. When Dr. Kapur (McKinzie) won Saturday's GIII Perryville Stakes at Keeneland, it gave the Barbados native, through Saturday, his 52nd stakes win of the year and his 28th graded win. He's dangerous wherever he goes–he has won stakes races are 22 different tracks this year.Here are the 2026 stakes totals for some of the sport's highest-rated trainers: Brown (33, 26 graded); Cox (51, 31 graded); Pletcher (18, 13 graded); Baffert (41, 24 graded); Casse (50, 22 graded).The numbers will change with the running of the Breeders' Cup, but it doesn't look good for Joseph when it comes to his being named the Eclipse Award-wining trainer. His earnings stand at $19.6 million, well behind Cox, who leads with $27.9 million. And he has 170 wins in the year, well behind Steve Asmussen (292), Cox (221) and Casse (210).But you can argue that no trainer has done more with less than Joseph. He still does not have owners going to the sales spending seven figures on Gun Runners or Into Mischiefs, but, still, all he does is win.Racing in Iran? Who Knew?Did you know that there was horse racing in the war-ravaged country of Iran? I didn't. So, it came as a surprise when the Paulick Report reported that the GI Echo Town (Speightstown) was sold to Iran's Ana Horse Equestrian Club and will begin the next chapter of his stud career there.Echo Town, the winner of the 2020 GI H. Allen Jerkens Stakes, stood at Leadem Farm near Leola, Ark., for $3,500 before being shipped to the Middle East. The main track in Iran is Gonbad-e Kavus Hippodrome.Iranian racing is heavily organized by breed-specific divisions. They include: Turkmen & Akhal-Teke; Persian Arabians and Thoroughbreds & Crosses. Under the Constitution and legal framework of the Islamic Republic, gambling is strictly illegal. However, horse racing–along with archery and camel racing–holds a special exemption derived directly from Islamic jurisprudence.The post Week in Review: What We Learned from the Jockey Club’s Report of Mares Bred appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.