TLDR:Bitcoin volatility may rise ahead of the November 3 midterms, but Ali Charts’ four-cycle sample is mixed and cannot establish a repeatable election-driven direction.The VIX rose 21.5% to 19.99 Friday, yet it fell the following Monday in 25 of 32 prior cases; those historical odds still leave room for another rise.CoinGlass data shows crypto liquidations at $352.1 million in 24 hours, including $33.8 million in AI-chip-linked contracts, mostly longs.BTC’s reported $80,996 price sat close to an $80,862 long liquidation-risk level, while ETH was also near a concentration of leveraged long positions.Bitcoin volatility is back in focus as traders weigh Friday’s surge in markets’ fear gauge against weekend BTC trading. The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, climbed 21.5% to 19.99 as the S&P 500 fell 1.09%. Bitcoin stayed above $80,000, while its implied volatility gauge eased slightly. The mixed signals arrive weeks before U.S. midterm elections on November 3. Analyst Ali Charts says Bitcoin’s one-month post-election record is mixed, with losses in the last two cycles.Neither that pattern nor historical VIX behavior offers a reliable forecast for Monday or November. Short-term market signals can reverse sharply. Investors face elevated uncertainty.Bitcoin Volatility Meets a Mixed Midterm Election RecordAli Charts’ October post lists BTC’s one-month returns after midterms: +30.91% in 2010 and +6.61% in 2014. Returns turned negative in 2018 (-47.13%) and 2022 (-18.15%).BITCOIN POST U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONSBitcoin’s performance in the month following U.S. midterm elections has been mixed:• 2010: +30.91% • 2014: +6.61% • 2018: -47.13% • 2022: -18.15%Interestingly, the pattern shifted after 2014, with $BTC delivering negative returns… https://t.co/u7pxFLuxYH pic.twitter.com/mX2ATToNqR— Ali Charts (@alicharts) October 18, 2026The record is mixed; only the last two readings were negative. Four elections offer context but limited predictive power. The comparison tracks monthly returns but offers little predictive value.U.S. voters return to polls Nov. 3, 2026. Markets may watch policy, fiscal debate and sector reactions. Rates, earnings, liquidity and global conflict can outweigh election effects.Bitcoin volatility may rise around the vote without a predictable direction. Past returns cannot say whether BTC rises or falls next November. There is no prior 2026 cycle to compare.Friday’s stock selloff followed pressure on AI shares and geopolitical concerns. The VIX prices options tied to expected S&P 500 swings over roughly 30 days. Its jump signals greater demand for protection against future swings.BTC trades around the clock, giving investors a weekend view of risk appetite. Quiet Sunday trading cannot guarantee stocks will resume buying Monday. Bitcoin volatility and equity fear can diverge.According to Coindesk analysis, the VIX index has jumped at least 20% on a Friday 32 times before this week ,since 1990, . It fell the next Monday 25 times and rose seven; its typical Monday decline was 4.5%.A month later, it was lower in 25 cases, with a median drop of 16%. The history favors easing, but seven exceptions matter. Friday’s close below 20 also leaves room for another rise. Seven Monday advances show how quickly the historical tendency can fail. VIX Index and Crypto Liquidations Keep Traders on AlertBitcoin price analysis shows the BVIV, which measures expected 30-day Bitcoin volatility, stayed just below 40% after slipping 1%. It contrasts with Friday’s VIX jump, but the gauges track different markets, horizons and risks. Bitcoin volatility can diverge from equity fears, so calm in one market proves little about the other. It reflects expected future swings, rather than realized price moves.According to CoinGlass, there has been $352.1 million in crypto liquidations over 24 hours, up 67%. AI-chip-linked perpetuals accounted for $33.8 million, mostly from long bets. SOXL led with $13.05 million; SanDisk contracts lost about $11.98 million. These exits reflect the distinct margin risks of leveraged positions. These contracts trade continuously without expiry and follow underlying prices.CoinGlass data placed BTC near $80,996, just above an $80,862 long liquidation-risk level. About $46.39 million in longs sat near that threshold. ETH traded near $2,372, roughly 0.75% above a $2,354 level tied to $25.98 million in longs. Source: CoinglassThese clusters can amplify moves, but shift as positions change. Such levels are dynamic risk markers as positions change.Monday marks 39 years since Black Monday, when the Dow lost 22.6% on Oct. 19, 1987, the Federal Reserve says. The anniversary adds context, but does not show that today’s selloff mirrors 1987. Bitcoin did not exist then.The VIX, Bitcoin and election returns measure different risks. Traders watching Bitcoin volatility face crosscurrents: equity fear may fade while leveraged positions remain close to liquidation zones. It remains a calendar marker only.The post Bitcoin Volatility Builds as Traders Weigh VIX and Election Risks appeared first on Blockonomi.