In the first round of Brazil’s elections on Oct. 4, 2026, Flávio Bolsonaro, of the right wing Liberal Party (PL), came in first with 47.03% of the valid votes, compared to 45.16% for the current leftist president and Workers’ Party (PT) candidate, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.The margin was just over 2.2 million votes, and the first polls for the runoff on Oct. 25 indicate a virtual tie. In a race like this, factors that would be marginal in a lopsided election become decisive. One of them comes from Washington and was little known in Brazil until September 2026, on the eve of the first round: Rockbridge Network.A political venture capital firmRockbridge was founded in 2019 by the current US vice president, J.D. Vance — then a Silicon Valley investor — and Chris Buskirk, editor of the pro-Trump website American Greatness. In a 2021 brochure distributed to donors and circulated by the New York Times the following year, the network described itself as “a kind of political venture capital firm.” The idea was to bring together donors dissatisfied with the traditional Republican Party and invest their money in a portfolio of projects: its own media outlets, training personnel for a future U.S. administration, and voter mobilization in U.S. states.The formula worked. In 2024, according to the Reuters news agency, the network had a budget of about US$75 million for the election cycle, focused on right-wing journalism, polling and voter mobilization in states critical to the US presidential election. A significant portion of its structure consists of entities that are not required to disclose their donors. Among the reported funders are Peter Thiel, co-founder and chairman of the technology company Palantir and Rebekah Mercer, one of the owners of the far-right American news site Breitbart.Donald Trump participated by phone in a meeting of the network in April 2024, and months later chose Vance as his running mate. Since the Republican victory in the 2024 election, Rockbridge has served as a bridge between donors and the government: senior administration officials have begun giving presentations to its members.Brazil is not the first foreign destination for Rockbridge’s activities. In September 2025, the network launched a branch in South Korea, chaired by Kim Hae-young, a former lawmaker from the center-left Democratic Party of Korea. The board includes former Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum, of the same party; former Finance Minister Bahk Jae-wan, from a conservative administration; and Chung Yong-jin, chairman of the Shinsegae Group. In Seoul, Rockbridge positioned itself as a channel for elites on both sides of the political spectrum to gain access to the Trump administration. In Brazil, the approach would be different.What Is Known About Rockbridge in BrazilOn Sept. 25, 2026, the Brazilian newspaper Folha de S.Paulo revealed that Rockbridge had begun setting up operations in the country. Documents obtained by Intercept Brasil detail the project. A business plan from April 2026, marked as “not for public release” and signed with the “Rockbridge Network Brasil” logo, described the operation as a “political venture capital fund” — an echo of the US parent company’s self-definition. Members’ annual dues would finance projects on three fronts considered “out of balance”: the press, universities, and the legislature.A second document, confidential and unsigned, was addressed to Flávio Bolsonaro - son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, now jailed for attempting a coup after losing the 2022 presidential election. It proposed a Technology Council of 23 business leaders, 19 of whom were foreign, to directly advise the Liberal Party’s presidential candidate and bring American investors closer to a potential administration of his in sectors such as defense, energy, data centers, and rare earth metals. The text presented the council as useful “as a campaign tool” and “as a platform for government,” and hinted at investment commitments even before the inauguration. There is no evidence that the material reached the candidate, and several of the listed companies deny having been consulted.The individuals involved, however, are close to Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign. Businessman Pedro Sang, identified in the document as the executive director of the Brazilian operation, told The Intercept that the council “was just an idea that never took off or moved forward.” Sang was introduced to Rockbridge through André Marinho, of the right wing Novo party, a candidate for governor of Rio and son of businessman Paulo Marinho, Flávio’s alternate in the Senate.Marinho wrote a memo about a Brazil-US partnership on rare earths under a potential Flávio administration, which he now describes as a “hypothetical exercise.” Nine days after the file was created, Flávio said at CPAC, in Dallas, that Brazil was the solution for the United States to break free from its dependence on China for critical minerals. In the new episode of the series Revelando, “Pátria submissa,” Wagner Moura discusses the ongoing agreement to hand over Brazil’s rare earth minerals to the US in the event of a Flávio Bolsonaro victory. Tallis Gomes, founder of Easy Taxi, stated in April, on the Os Sócios podcast, that he was part of Rockbridge and that Flávio had asked him for written proposals for his government plan. Afterwards he told The Intercept that he is merely part of a networking group. On Oct. 1, allies of the Liberal Party’s candidate told Folha that businesspeople linked to the network produced reports and provided consulting services to the campaign.Rockbridge denied for weeks that it had plans for Brazil, until it admitted that it had opened a company in the United States, Rockbridge Brazil LLC, registered in Wyoming in May. It claims that the initiative did not move forward, that the company never received funds or operated, and that Brazilians produced documents bearing its name without its consent. Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign denies having received foreign funds.The legal dispute and the limits of evidenceThe accusation of foreign campaign financing came from Renan Santos, then a presidential candidate for the Missão party, who claimed, without presenting evidence, that Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign was receiving money from the network indirectly. Based on this, Workers’ Party Congressman Lindbergh Farias filed a petition with the STF on Sept. 11. The Workers’ Party asked Justice Flávio Dino to order a Federal Police investigation, and Lula’s campaign took the case to Brazil’s Electoral Supreme Court (TSE), requesting records of meetings, contracts and expenses.Brazilian election law prohibits donations from foreign entities to campaigns. So far, however, there is no public evidence that money from Rockbridge reached Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign, and it is unlikely that the courts will conclude any investigation before Oct. 25, the date of the presidential election’s runoff.How to influence the election without making a donationThe debate focused on money, however, asks the wrong question. Rockbridge does not need to have transferred a single dollar to have influence in this election. It can do so through a number of other means.The first is programmatic. The network offers Flávio Bolsonaro something no other candidate has: a direct channel to the inner circle surrounding the US vice president, who leads most polls for the likely Republican nomination in the 2028 U.S. presidential election. Rockbridge Brazil LLC was registered by Chris Applegate, who is in charge of Vance’s relationship with donors.With part of Brazil’s exports subject to tariffs of up to 37.5% since July — as part of the second round of trade sanctions following the U.S. Supreme Court’s overturning of the 2025 tariff hike — the promise to repair relations with Washington holds electoral value, especially among business leaders and exporters.The proposal for cooperation on rare earths — a resource in which Brazil holds the world’s second-largest reserves, second only to China — gives concrete substance to this promise. And it aligns with the priority of Trump’s economic diplomacy in the competition with China over supply chains. The candidate can present himself not only as Trump’s ideological ally but also as his preferred interlocutor.The second is organizational. What Rockbridge sells in the United States is a method. Its 2021 brochure outlined plans for its own media outlets, influencer programs, and a “shadow government” to train staff, and the network funded voter mobilization in key states in 2024.The Brazilian plan replicated this model. Even though the organization never formally operated in the country, knowledge circulates among people, and some of them, according to Flávio Bolsonaro’s own allies, have already worked on his campaign. In a runoff decided by just a few points, the ability to mobilize business leaders, fund campaign content, and get voters to the polls through legal and domestic channels may be worth more than any international transfer.The third factor is the boomerang effect. Rockbridge could also prove decisive against Flávio Bolsonaro. Lula’s campaign has already incorporated this issue into its messaging, accusing Trump of wanting to “colonize” Brazil. In 2025, the US tariff hike boosted the president’s popularity by turning a trade dispute into a matter of sovereignty. The presence of a network linked to the US vice president surrounding a candidate offers the government the same narrative. The asset that brings Flávio Bolsonaro closer to business leaders is the same one that exposes him to nationalist voters.What lies ahead after Oct. 25Whatever the election results may be, this episode reveals a shift in how the American right projects its influence in Brazil. The Atlas Network, for example, supported a network of liberal think tanks in the country that promoted the neoliberal agenda and whose leaders rose to high-ranking positions in the Bolsonaro administration.Rockbridge, for its part, exports something else: a model of organized political capital that links donors, candidates and access to the US government, with a specific economic agenda focused on critical minerals and technology, aligned with the rivalry with China. And the plan for Brazil does not end with the election: it calls for permanent councils for the press, universities, and the legislature, funded by members’ annual dues.A comparison with South Korea highlights what is unique about the Brazilian case. In Seoul, the network brought together elites from both sides of the political spectrum around an alliance with Washington. In Brazil, it backed a single candidate. This is a form of private, partisan economic diplomacy that operates outside official channels and benefits one side of the political contest.In 2019, Chris Buskirk spoke at Brazil’s Foreign Relations Ministry about how globalism would threaten national sovereignty. Seven years later, the network he heads listed 19 foreign executives to directly advise a presidential candidate.The election law prohibits campaigns from receiving cash donations or donations valued in cash from foreign entities. Reports and consulting services, if proven, may fall under this category. But the promise of access to Washington and future investments has no declarable price, and that is precisely what Rockbridge offers. In a country split down the middle, this loophole could decide the next administration.Filipe Mendonça não presta consultoria, trabalha, possui ações ou recebe financiamento de qualquer empresa ou organização que poderia se beneficiar com a publicação deste artigo e não revelou nenhum vínculo relevante além de seu cargo acadêmico.