Uganda’s meteorologists say the delayed onset of the September-December rains does not necessarily contradict the seasonal forecast, explaining that El Niño does not automatically translate into immediate or widespread heavy rainfall.September recorded below-average rainfall and fewer rainy days in parts of the country, disrupting agricultural activities that depend on seasonal rains for land preparation, planting and seedling establishment.The Department of Meteorological Services maintains that its September-December seasonal forecast remains valid, arguing that the public may have expected El Niño to bring immediate heavy rainfall, yet a delayed onset had been anticipated.Speaking during a dialogue between scientists and journalists organised by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) to discuss the October-December 2026 rainfall season across East Africa, principal meteorologist William George Omony said widespread rainfall was recorded across much of Uganda on October 9, following a largely disappointing September.“People are complaining, where is El Niño? Where is the rain? It is very true. That kind of outcry was also massive over Uganda,” Omony said.He explained that El Niño is a large-scale climate phenomenon, not a direct prediction of how much rain a particular district will receive. Its influence depends on the season, regional atmospheric circulation and interactions with other climate systems.Omony acknowledged that meteorologists had not adequately explained how El Niño could influence rainfall differently at different stages of the season, leaving many people expecting heavy rains immediately after the phenomenon was declared in June 2026.“We are not communicating well to the public. That is, we the scientists, we are not communicating well to the public,” he said.His explanation comes as Uganda enters the October-November rainfall period, when the department expects more consistent rainfall, with the season projected to peak between late October and mid-November.Omony said the department had anticipated a delayed onset of the September-December rains following dry conditions that persisted from June through August. The seasonal forecast had projected near-normal rainfall, with a slight tendency towards above-normal conditions, in southwestern Uganda and Karamoja.He said the limited number of rainy days meant that even where rainfall occurred, it was insufficient to adequately support agricultural activities.The department had expected intermittent rainfall from mid-to-late September to signal the onset of the season, followed by more consistent rainfall from mid-October.By October 15, Omony said, the widespread rainfall recorded on October 9 was broadly consistent with the department’s expectation that the season would begin stabilising around the middle of the month.The rains are expected to continue into November, although their retreat will vary across the country. According to Omony, rainfall in northern Uganda is expected to end towards late December, while parts of southwestern Uganda could continue receiving rain into early January.He said one of the public misconceptions was that El Niño meant heavy rainfall throughout the season. Historical analysis, he explained, showed that the phenomenon could initially suppress rainfall during June, July, August and September before influencing a different rainfall pattern later in the year.Meanwhile, central and western areas that are usually drier during that period can experience even drier conditions. Omony said meteorologists had monitored the development of the El Niño signal from March before the phenomenon was formally declared in June.He said explaining the sequence of dry conditions followed by the possibility of enhanced rainfall would help the public understand why El Niño did not immediately translate into heavy rain.Karamoja droughtOmony said the department had also worked with partners, including ICPAC and the World Food Programme, to generate a drought forecast for Karamoja during June-August.He said the forecast helped authorities anticipate the drought threat before it escalated, illustrating how seasonal climate information can inform preparedness even when the expected impacts are not immediately apparent to the public.Eunice Koech, a climate modelling assistant at ICPAC, told the dialogue that the rainfall response to El Niño depends partly on conditions in the Indian Ocean.El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate pattern associated with changes in sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.Koech cautioned against treating the strength of El Niño as a direct measure of the rainfall expected in East Africa.“Let me begin by clarifying that El Niño doesn’t mean heavy rainfall. It is simply one of many features that modulate rainfall in Kenya,” she said while explaining the phenomenon’s influence on the region.She also challenged the description of the developing event as a “Super El Niño”, arguing that the terminology could create unrealistic expectations about rainfall.“I think the communication should shift away from Super El Niño, because the strength of El Niño does not imply that we are expecting extremely high rainfall,” Koech said.One of the other climate drivers she identified was the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which describes differences in sea-surface temperatures between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean.When the western Indian Ocean, closer to East Africa, is warmer than the eastern part, a positive IOD can favour enhanced rainfall over parts of the region. Warmer sea-surface temperatures promote rising air and atmospheric convection, contributing to cloud formation and rainfall.Koech said El Niño often coincides with a positive IOD, although the relationship is not automatic.“If you have both El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean dipole, you tend to have wet signals or enhanced rains over most parts of the region during October to December,” she said.“But if you have El Niño and the Indian Ocean is neutral, the wet is only concentrated over a few areas over the coast, but you only have the central and other areas being quite dry.”The third climate driver she highlighted was the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of moving pulses of enhanced and suppressed rainfall that travels eastwards through the tropics.Koech explained that the MJO can influence the timing of rainfall by changing atmospheric conditions as it moves across the Indian Ocean towards East Africa.The persistence of El Niño, therefore, does not by itself determine how long the rains will last in Uganda or elsewhere in the region.Kenya expects above-average rainfallKenya’s seasonal outlook provides a regional comparison with Uganda’s delayed rainfall onset. Jemima Gacheru-Ongoma, a forecaster at the Kenya Meteorological Service, said the agency had maintained its September forecast for above-average rainfall across most of Kenya during October-December.She said the forecast also projected near-normal to above-normal rainfall in parts of northwestern Kenya, including Turkana and areas of Samburu, West Pokot and Marsabit.Gacheru-Ongoma explained that forecast categories compare expected rainfall with what is normally recorded in a particular location. An above-average forecast does not, therefore, mean that every county will receive the same volume of rainfall.She said Kenya had not changed its original seasonal forecast, which anticipated above-average rainfall across most of the country. However, the forecast remains a projection rather than confirmation that the anticipated rainfall has already occurred.Koech similarly emphasised that El Niño had been established in the Pacific Ocean, while uncertainty remained over how the expected rainfall would develop in individual locations.“What we are waiting for is for the short rains (OND) season to start in areas that it hasn’t,” she said.She cited Taita Taveta as an example of an area where rainfall was expected to begin towards the end of October.The implications of the regional outlook extend beyond farmers waiting to plant. Above-average rainfall can replenish water supplies and support agriculture, but it can also increase the risk of flooding, waterlogging, landslides and disruption to transport and livelihoods.During the dialogue, a participant from Rusinga Island in Lake Victoria asked how fishing communities in Homa Bay, Siaya and Kisumu should prepare for the forecast of above-average rainfall, given concerns about rising lake levels and water hyacinth.The question highlighted the need to translate seasonal forecasts into practical preparedness measures for lakeshore communities, including fishing groups and Beach Management Units.The delayed onset has already raised concerns among people waiting for the rains. While a seasonal forecast may indicate a wetter-than-normal period, the timing and distribution of rainfall will determine whether farmers can establish their crops and whether communities face prolonged dry spells or flood risks.The post Where are the ‘El Niño rains’? Meteorologists explain delayed onset appeared first on The Observer Media Ltd.