Crude Oil (CL) Analysis, Key-Zones, Setup for Thu (Oct 15)Crude Oil FuturesNYMEX:CL1!MyAlgoIndexBias: The November crude contract settled Wednesday at 95.09, up 0.95 or 1.01 percent, for a fifth consecutive higher settle. The session traded between 96.06 and 93.97, a 2.09 point daily range with a higher high and a higher low against Tuesday, and the settle finished 53.6 percent of the way up from the low. Those extremes are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder, and they match the chart's daily bar. The settle was the highest since 09/18 and the high the highest since 09/28. Provider commentary said crude reached a two-week high as Houthi attacks across Saudi Arabia, including on oil infrastructure, and Iranian attacks on vessels in Hormuz disrupted supply, and that it came off its best level as the dollar rallied. The hotter-than-forecast September inflation report at 8:30 AM ET did not knock crude lower: the 8:30 AM ET 30-minute bar closed at 95.69, up from its 95.21 open. Brent's December contract rose 0.37 to 106.06, narrowing its premium over WTI to 10.97, and November settled 1.19 above December, a wider backwardation than Tuesday's 97 cents. Heating oil eased while gasoline edged higher, so both product margins narrowed. The dollar index closed at 102.55, up 0.37. After the settle, the news feed carried an industry estimate of an 11.12 million barrel crude draw against a forecast build. The settle sits above every settlement average from the 5-day to the 200-day, positive direction leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems, and the composite multi-indicator read rose to 80 percent buy with direction strongest. In this review's interpretation the bias is constructive while the contract holds above the 94.02 to 94.28 support band, with Gulf and Hormuz headlines the main risk to that view in both directions. In this review's interpretation the first-order scheduled item on Thursday is the weekly petroleum status report at 12:00 PM ET, per the verified forward calendar, set against unscheduled supply headlines. Resistance: - 98.20 Pivot R3 - 97.76 three standard deviations resistance - 97.27 two standard deviations resistance - 97.13 Pivot R2 - 96.63 one standard deviation resistance - 96.32 published target price - 96.11 Pivot R1 - 96.06 Wednesday's session high - 96.02 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high Support: - 95.04 Pivot Point - 94.60 stochastic projection level - 94.28 50 percent retracement of the four-week range - 94.14 Tuesday's settle - 94.02 Pivot S1 - 93.97 Wednesday's session low - 93.55 one standard deviation support - 92.95 Pivot S2 - 92.53 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low - 92.26 20-day settlement average Primary Setup: LONG the November contract from the 94.05 to 94.35 band around Pivot S1 at 94.02, Tuesday's 94.14 settle and the 50 percent retracement at 94.28, stop 93.40 beneath one standard deviation support at 93.55. Targets at 95.00 first, 4 cents beneath the Pivot Point at 95.04, 95.80 second, 22 cents beneath the 96.02 retracement, and 96.60 third, 3 cents beneath one standard deviation resistance at 96.63. Risk to reward is roughly 1:1 to the first objective, 1:2 to the second and 1:3 to the third from the entry midpoint. The 14-day average true range is 3.85 points against a 0.80 point stop distance. A settle beneath 93.55 negates the thesis; two consecutive 30-minute closes beneath 94.05 remove the edge before the stop is reached. The settle sits above the entry band, so the setup needs a dip to engage. The official inventory report at 12:00 PM ET and a calming of the Gulf headlines are the main risks to a long, which makes this an analyst judgment against scheduled and headline risk. The 95.09 settle sits at 53.6 percent of the narrowest range since 08/28. In this review's interpretation Thursday is a test of whether the 94.02 to 94.28 band holds as support, with one standard deviation support at 93.55 the line between a pullback and a return toward Pivot S2 at 92.95.