Trading Plan and Analysis - #XAUUSD 15/10/2026GoldOANDA:XAUUSDfntradinglabM30 Timeframe Yesterday’s September CPI came in hotter than expected on both counts. Headline inflation rose to 3.7% year-on-year (above the 3.6% consensus), driven by a 9.1% surge in gasoline prices. Core CPI also surprised to the upside, rising 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, above the 2.5% consensus — exactly the “hot core” scenario flagged as the most bearish outcome for gold in the previous two updates. usinflationcalculator CNBC October rate hike odds jumped to 44% from 22% the day before, according to CME FedWatch data, and the 10-year Treasury yield jumped 10 basis points to 5.323%, the highest level since October 8. Supercore inflation — the narrower measure excluding housing and energy services — was also hot, and over the past three months core CPI has run at a 3.4% annualized rate, up notably from 2% in August, signaling that underlying price pressures are actually strengthening rather than fading. Inflation heats up as gas prices surge +2 The market reaction was swift and unambiguous. Gold spiked briefly on the initial release — likely short-covering — then sold off hard, breaking below the 4,100 psychological level and printing a low near 4,066 - 4,073 before recovering partially. The chart now shows the entire recovery from the previous two-month low has been wiped out, with price back near that same zone around 4,152 after a bounce. The OB H1 at 4,180 - 4,193 and the FVG H1 at 4,195 - 4,200 that were identified as key resistance zones are now sitting well above, acting as an even more important structural ceiling. Real average hourly earnings fell 0.5% in September and were down 0.7% from a year earlier, meaning inflation is outpacing wage growth — a dynamic that typically pressures consumer spending and adds complexity to the Fed’s already difficult task of balancing inflation control against economic resilience. Axios My view is now firmly bearish. The CPI confirmed what the technical structure has been suggesting for weeks: this is a market where sellers control every meaningful rally. The brief post-data bounce is typical post-spike behavior, not a reversal. Two-month lows have been retested, October hike odds have nearly doubled overnight, and the Fed’s December path is clearer than ever toward another hike. 🔴 SELL SCENARIO (primary) Zone to watch: 4,180 - 4,200 (OB H1 / FVG H1 — key resistance now confirmed) Confirms if: a rally into this zone is rejected with a bearish CHOCH on M15/M30 Invalidates if: H1 close above 4,210 🔴 SELL SCENARIO (secondary, deeper retest) Zone to watch: 4,150 - 4,163 (current bounce zone) Confirms if: price stalls here and prints a lower high with a bearish M30 CHOCH Invalidates if: clean M30 close above 4,168 🟢 BUY SCENARIO (counter-trend, very low priority) Zone to watch: 4,066 - 4,080 (two-month low retested again) Confirms if: sweep of the low with a sharp bullish displacement and M15 CHOCH Invalidates if: clean close below 4,060 On key levels, near resistance is 4,163 - 4,165 (current bounce high), then 4,180 - 4,200 (OB H1 / FVG H1). Near support is 4,100 - 4,110, then the critical 4,066 - 4,073 two-month low. A clean close below 4,066 would be the first print at those levels since August and would open the path toward 4,000 and below. Today’s suggested play: favor selling rallies into 4,150 - 4,163 or 4,180 - 4,200 rather than chasing the current low. PPI data and retail sales are due today and tomorrow — additional hot readings would reinforce the bearish case further. The macro story is as clear as it has been: hot inflation, rising hike odds, elevated yields, and a structurally bearish technical picture. This reflects a personal view and technical read from FN Trading Lab based on current market structure, not financial advice or a specific buy/sell recommendation. Please watch price reaction at the levels mentioned and make your own decisions in line with your own strategy.