KATRIN BENNHOLD2026年10月15日周二在法国波尔多发生的一场学生抗议活动。 Christophe Archambault/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesOver the last few years we’ve seen the rise of a formidable political force: Gen Z protesters. They have toppled governments in Bangladesh, Nepal, Peru and Madagascar. They’re behind India’s largest protests in years, which so far have forced the resignation of the country’s education minister.过去几年中，我们见证了一股强大政治力量的崛起：Z世代抗议者。他们推翻了孟加拉国、尼泊尔、秘鲁和马达加斯加的政府。他们是印度近年来最大规模抗议活动的幕后推手，这些抗议迄今已迫使该国教育部长辞职。Now we’re witnessing protests by young people in France, who share the anger of other Gen Z protesters around the world, but not the same political power. Because unlike their contemporaries outside the West, young people in Europe are a shrinking demographic. Today my colleague Amanda Taub writes about the intense generational tensions in the West’s aging societies and why they risk becoming a vicious cycle.如今，我们正目睹法国年轻人的抗议活动，他们与世界各地其他Z世代抗议者有着共同的愤怒，却不具备相同的政治力量。因为与西方以外的同龄人不同，欧洲的年轻人是一个正在萎缩的人口群体。今天，我的同事阿曼达·陶布撰文探讨了西方老龄化社会中激烈的世代紧张局势，以及为什么这些局势有着演变成恶性循环的风险。A zero-sum game零和博弈By Amanda Taub文/阿曼达·陶布France may seem like a nation of perpetual protest. But if you are trying to make sense of the latest wave of demonstrations spurred on by young people angry over dilapidated schools, it might help to cast your mind back just a few years.法国似乎是一个永远处于抗议之中的国家。但若想理解这波由年轻人对学校设施破败的愤怒引发的最新示威浪潮，回想一下几年前的情况可能会有所帮助。Not long ago, the French took to the streets when President Emmanuel Macron raised the retirement age from 62 to 64. The outcry was so intense that the government eventually suspended the measure; France’s pensions remain one of the biggest drains on the budget of a nation with one of the highest debt levels in Europe.不久前，当总统马克龙将退休年龄从62岁提高到64岁时，法国人走上了街头。强烈呼声如此剧烈，以至于政府最终暂停了该措施；对于这个债务水平居欧洲前列的国家而言，法国的养老金仍然是国家预算中最大的负担之一。Today’s protesters have taken to the barricades to demand more resources for the young, while the earlier ones marched to protect resources for the old. In both cases, the protesters saw themselves in a fight with the French government; it might be equally valid to say they were — and still are — in a fight with each other.今天的抗议者走上街头，是为了要求为年轻人提供更多资源，此前的抗议者游行则是为了保护老年人的资源。在这两种情况下，抗议者都认为自己是在与法国政府斗争；但同样可以说，他们过去和现在，都是在彼此对抗。The dissatisfaction currently roiling Europe, from France to Spain to Britain to Belgium, is about many things: schools, housing, pensions, unemployment. But step back, and it’s also about one big thing — a generational fight over an economic pie fixed in its size by the continent’s chronic slow economic growth.从法国到西班牙，从英国到比利时，目前席卷欧洲的不满情绪涉及许多方面：学校、住房、养老金、失业。但退一步来看，这也是一场关于一个大问题的争斗——一场围绕经济蛋糕的代际之争，而蛋糕的大小已因欧洲长期低迷的经济增长而固定不变。‘Gerontonomia’“老龄治理”As Europe’s population ages, conflict may be unavoidable. Because ultimately, different generations have different economic interests, said Tim Vlandas, a professor at Oxford.随着欧洲人口老龄化，冲突可能是不可避免的。牛津大学教授蒂姆·弗兰达斯指出，归根结底，不同的世代拥有不同的经济利益。Young people need investments in education, a strong labor market and affordable housing. People over 65, by contrast, tend to want generous pensions and social care, protection for the value of their homes and other assets, and low inflation, even at the cost of higher unemployment. (No one likes inflation, but retirees who rely on savings and fixed incomes are particularly sensitive to it.)年轻人需要对教育的投资、强劲的劳动力市场和负担得起的住房。相比之下，65岁以上的人群往往希望获得丰厚的养老金和社会护理，希望其房产及其他资产的价值得到保障，并希望通胀率保持较低水平，即使这意味着失业率会上升。（没有人喜欢通胀，但依赖储蓄和固定收入的退休人员对此尤为敏感。）As older people become a larger portion of the population in aging societies, their political influence has also grown, and they have been getting their way. The result is what Vlandas calls “gerontonomia,” a form of “democratically sustained economic stagnation.”随着老年人在老龄化社会中占总人口的比例越来越大，他们的政治影响力也随之增长，并且逐渐如愿以偿。其结果就是弗兰达斯所说的“老龄治理”，一种“由民主维持的经济停滞”形式。The disease and its symptoms are widespread. In France, youth unemployment stands at around 20 percent. GDP growth fell to zero percent in the second quarter of this year. Pension costs make up approximately a quarter of all public spending, in part because the retirement age is so low, but there is little political appetite for changing it. Many, particularly on the left, have argued that it is possible to preserve pensions and increase education spending. But the question of how to pay remains. The looming threat of a debt crisis makes further borrowing difficult. And wealth taxes, while often politically appealing, have not raised much money in the past.这种疾病及其症状非常普遍。在法国，青年失业率保持在20%左右。今年第二季度GDP增长降至零。养老金成本约占所有公共支出的四分之一，部分原因是退休年龄太低，但在政治上几乎没有改变它的意愿。许多人——尤其是左翼人士——主张既可以保留养老金，又可以增加教育支出。但资金来源的问题依然存在。迫在眉睫的债务危机威胁使得进一步借贷变得困难。而财富税虽然在政治上常常具有吸引力，但在过去并没有筹集到多少资金。87岁的退休老人玛丽卡门·阿巴斯卡尔，她被驱逐出家门一事在西班牙引发了全国范围的抗议活动。 Oscar Del Pozo/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe situation is similar in Spain, which has one of the oldest populations in Europe, and where protests over a housing crisis recently contributed to Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s decision to call new elections. While the face of the protests was an 87-year-old renter, many young people joined, because the housing crisis disproportionately affects them.西班牙的情况也类似，该国是欧洲人口老龄化最严重的国家之一，最近针对住房危机的抗议活动促使首相桑切斯决定举行新的大选。虽然抗议活动的代表人物是一位87岁的租户，但许多年轻人也加入其中，因为住房危机对他们的影响尤为严重。Spanish youth unemployment is over 22 percent. House prices have risen far more quickly than wages, adding to the wealth of older generations, but leaving many young people with a choice of living with their parents well into their 30s or sacrificing savings to pay a steep rent.西班牙的青年失业率超过22%。房价上涨速度远快于工资增长，增加了年长一代的财富，却让许多年轻人面临选择：要么30多岁了还要和父母同住，要么牺牲储蓄去支付高昂的租金。In Britain, the youth unemployment rate is lower, around 16 percent. But housing costs are steep, particularly in and around London, where most job growth is located. And the country has committed to the so-called “triple lock,” a policy that has for years ensured pensions have risen faster than wages.在英国，青年失业率较低，约为16%。但住房成本高昂，尤其是在大部分就业增长所在的伦敦及其周边地区。此外，该国还承诺实行所谓的“三重保障”政策，该政策多年来一直确保养老金的涨幅高于工资的涨幅。In a recent speech, Prime Minister Andy Burnham pledged to overhaul the policy, long considered untouchable. One union leader called the pledge “almost electoral insanity,” even though Burnham promised to spend the money saved on adult social care, which would largely benefit the aged, too.在最近的一次演讲中，首相伯纳姆承诺改革这项长期以来被视为不可触碰的政策。一位工会领导人称这一承诺“几乎是选举上的疯狂行为”，尽管伯纳姆承诺将省下来的资金用于成人社会护理，而这大部分也将让老年人受益。昨天，巴黎举行了一场要求实行与通胀挂钩的养老金的抗议活动。 Mehdi Fedouach/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesWhy older people have an edge为何老年人占据优势Wealthy nations can look forward to more of these battles, but older people may continue to set the political agenda.可以预见，富裕国家未来还会有更多这样的斗争，但老年人或将继续主导政治议程。The elderly are well-placed to rally others to their cause, because they have institutions on their side, said Kevin Arceneaux, a political science professor at Sciences Po in Paris. Political parties and unions have an incentive to protect the interests of older people, who make up the bulk of their membership and voting coalitions.巴黎政治学院的政治学教授凯文·阿塞诺表示，老年人非常擅长团结其他人支持他们的主张，因为他们有体制作为后盾。政党和工会有动力去保护老年人的利益，因为老年人构成了其成员和投票联盟的主体。It is also easier to convince young people to support old-age benefits that they might one day receive than it is to convince old people to pay more for education that they will never use themselves. Younger generations share some of the benefits from spending on the elderly, experts say. Adult children still living at home may see pension payments as part of their household’s income, rather than a transfer from young workers to retirees.此外，相比说服老年人为他们自己永远用不到的教育多掏钱，说服年轻人支持他们有朝一日可能领取的晚年福利也要容易得多。专家表示，年轻一代能分享到针对老年人支出的一些好处。仍与父母同住的成年子女可能会将养老金视为其家庭收入的一部分，而非年轻劳动者向退休人员转移的资金。In Britain, Laura Serra, a researcher at the London School of Economics, has found that working-age generations often worry they will have to support their aging parents themselves if pensions are cut. In fact, France’s young people were out in force to support the 2023 protests against Macron’s proposed pension reform.在英国，伦敦政治经济学院的研究员劳拉·塞拉发现，适龄劳动力世代常常担心，如果养老金被削减，他们将不得不亲自赡养老龄父母。事实上，法国的年轻人曾大举出动，支持2023年反对马克龙提出的养老金改革方案的抗议活动。But with economic growth slow in much of the continent, and government borrowing becoming prohibitively expensive, choices may have to be made. And when they are, young people, and perhaps economies as a whole, will be at a disadvantage.然而，由于欧洲大部分地区的经济增长缓慢，且政府借贷变得昂贵至极，人们可能不得不做出选择。一旦做出选择时，年轻人——甚至可能是整个经济体——将处于不利地位。Last week, as young people blocked schools across the country, France’s lawmakers met to review next year’s budget. One of their first moves was to preserve a tax break for pensioners.上周，就在年轻人封锁全国各地的学校时，法国议员们正开会审查明年的预算。他们的首批举措之一就是保留针对退休人员的税收优惠政策。本文节译自时报全球新闻电邮The World。翻译：晋其角