US retails sales for September 0.8% MoM vs 0.3% estimate. Prior month 1.3%

Wait 5 sec.

Prior 1.3%DetailsRetail sales MoM: +0.8% vs +0.3% expected. Prior revised to +1.2% from +1.1%.Retail sales excluding autos MoM: +0.9% vs +0.5% expected. Prior revised to +1.4% from +1.3%.Retail sales excluding gasoline and autos MoM: +0.2%. Prior revised to +1.2% from +1.1%.Retail control group MoM: +0.1% vs +0.3% expected. Prior revised to +1.4% from +1.2%.US retail sales were stronger than expected in September, rising 0.8% compared with the 0.3% estimate. Sales excluding autos also comfortably beat expectations, while upward revisions added to the strength of the prior month.However, the details take some shine off the headline. Sales excluding gasoline and autos rose a more modest 0.2%. The control group, which feeds into estimates of goods consumption in gross domestic product, increased just 0.1%, missing the 0.3% estimate. That follows an upwardly revised 1.4% gain in August (from 1.2%).Quick analysis: A strong headline, but a more mixed report underneath. The consumer continues to spend, although the softer control group points to slower momentum in the categories most relevant to the consumption calculation. Retail sales measure dollars spent, so higher prices can also lift the total without consumers buying more goods. The headline strength could support the dollar and Treasury yields and give the Fed less reason to ease, but the control-group miss tempers that message.More DetailsThe biggest observation is how much gasoline contributed to the headline increase.Gasoline stations accounted for 71% of September’s dollar increase. Total sales rose $5.70 billion, with gasoline station sales contributing $4.07 billion. Gas station sales jumped 6.4% for the month and 28.1% from a year ago.Take out gasoline, and the report becomes more modest. Overall sales increased 0.8%, but sales excluding gasoline rose just 0.2%. Excluding both autos and gasoline, sales increased 0.3%. Spending is still growing, but the headline overstates the strength across other categories.Restaurants were another bright spot. Food services and drinking places increased 1.1%, following August’s roughly 1.4% gain. Restaurants contributed another $967 million to September’s increase. Together, gasoline stations and restaurants accounted for about 88% of the total dollar gain.The gains were mixed across discretionary categories. Furniture sales increased 1.3% and electronics rose 0.6%. However, clothing was essentially unchanged, general merchandise edged lower, sporting goods/hobby/book stores fell 0.5%, and miscellaneous retailers declined 3.0%. Consumers are spending, but the strength is uneven.Autos were a modest contributor. Motor vehicle and parts dealer sales rose just 0.2%. That explains why sales excluding autos increased 0.9%, slightly faster than the headline.Nonstore retailers continued to grow, but September’s pace slowed. Sales increased 0.3%, following approximately 2.0% in August. They remained 8.1% above a year earlier.The important distinction is that seasonally adjusted does not mean inflation adjusted. These figures measure dollars spent. The gasoline increase alone does not tell us whether consumers bought more fuel or paid more per gallon.My takeaway: The consumer is still spending, but this is less of a broad spending surge than the headline suggests. Gasoline did most of the heavy lifting, restaurants added support, and the remaining categories were mixed.What this report measures:The Census Bureau’s retail sales report tracks monthly spending at retailers and food services businesses. Figures are adjusted for seasonal patterns but not inflation and are subject to revision. The control group excludes autos, gasoline, building materials and food services, helping economists estimate goods consumption within gross domestic product (GDP). This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.