Oil’s reaction to Trump’s repeated price forecasts has faded. The market’s own verdict shows in deferred contracts, where WTI and Brent strips for 2027 have recently set records, a sign that traders are pricing a lasting supply squeeze, not a swift resolution. The Alaska deals matter more for gas than oil. Asian buyers locking in North American supply away from the Gulf supports the case for diversification, but the volumes are years away and do nothing for this winter’s tight LNG market. A credible ceasefire would still trigger a sharp drop in crude, so headline risk cuts both ways, but traders are likely to need concrete steps, not statements, before pricing it.---Trump brought Asian money to Alaska LNG, but his latest promise of cheaper oil and a swift end to the Iran war meets a market that has heard it before, over, and over, and over again.Summary:Trump said Taiwan has agreed to buy 30% of the gas from the Alaska LNG pipeline project and invest around $4.4 billion, on top of South Korea’s $50 billion commitmentSpeaking at a rally in Alaska, he said every permit needed for the project has been granted and that two deals would be announcedTrump said oil prices will fall soon and energy prices will drop sharply once the Iran war ends, which he said will happen very soonHe said Iran will not possess nuclear weapons and that more oil is being moved out of the Strait of Hormuz than before the warBrent settled near $106 on Tuesday amid escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, and Trump has made similar predictions repeatedly during the conflictUS President Donald Trump said Taiwan has agreed to buy 30% of the gas from the Alaska LNG pipeline project and invest around $4.4 billion in it, as he again predicted that oil prices would fall soon and that the war with Iran would end very soon.Speaking at a rally in Alaska, Trump said every permit needed for the project has been granted and that two deals would be announced. Taiwan’s commitment adds to the $50 billion South Korea has pledged to invest, giving the long-planned project significant backing from Asian energy importers looking to diversify supply.Trump also said energy prices would drop sharply as soon as the war ends and that Iran will not be allowed to possess nuclear weapons. He added that more oil is now being moved out of the Strait of Hormuz than before the conflict.The comments are supportive on their face, but markets may treat them with some caution. Trump has repeatedly said during the conflict that the war would end soon and that oil prices would come down, and so far those forecasts have not materialised. Brent settled near $106 a barrel on Tuesday, while the conflict has widened, with Yemen’s Houthis stepping up missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia and loud explosions reported near Saudi Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran.His Hormuz claim is also more upbeat than some outside assessments. Morgan Stanley said recently that Persian Gulf crude exports had recovered to within 10% of prewar levels, a strong rebound but still short of where they were before the war.The Alaska deals carry longer-term significance. Securing anchor buyers and investment from Taiwan and South Korea strengthens the commercial case for a project intended to send Alaskan gas to Asian markets, reducing their dependence on supply routes through the Gulf. However, a pipeline and export project of this scale would take years to deliver gas, offering no relief to current market tightness.For oil traders, the test is whether the Iran conflict moves toward a concrete resolution. Until then, the market is likely to keep pricing the risk of further disruption over the promise of a quick end. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.