It is CPI day, and traders are waiting for the next shove.In the morning video above, I take a look at EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective, outlining the bias, risk-defining levels and targets ahead of the 8:30 AM ET inflation report. With the currency ranges still relatively contained, there is room for the data to get prices moving.The US dollar is mixed ahead of the release. Treasury yields are modestly lower, while US stock futures show gains for the Dow and S&P 500 but a decline for the Nasdaq 100. Crude oil is moving higher toward $96, keeping energy costs firmly in the inflation discussion.US CPI: Will core inflation stay contained?The September CPI report will be released today at 8:30 AM ET. Expectations are:Headline CPI month over month: +0.6% versus +0.4% last month.Headline CPI year over year: +3.6% versus +3.4% last month.Core CPI month over month: +0.2% versus +0.3% last month.Core CPI year over year: +2.5% versus +2.4% last month.Higher energy prices are expected to lift the headline reading. The more important question is whether those costs are spreading into other goods and services. That puts the core reading, which excludes food and energy, firmly in focus.Last month, gasoline prices rose 3.9% and accounted for more than one-third of the monthly headline increase. Core prices also increased 0.3%, with gains in categories including airline fares, lodging and used vehicles.A 0.2% monthly core reading would show some moderation from August, even if the annual rate rises to 2.5%. Those readings can move in different directions because the annual calculation also depends on the inflation number dropping out from a year ago.My focus will be on the core surprise:Core at 0.3% or higher: That could push Treasury yields and the dollar higher as traders reassess the risk of further Fed tightening.Core at 0.2%: That could give the Fed more room to wait, particularly if the stronger headline reading is concentrated in energy.Core at 0.1% or lower: That would be moving in the right direction and could pressure yields and the dollar while giving stocks some relief.Thursday’s PPI report at 8:30 AM ET will provide another piece of the inflation puzzle. Together, the CPI and PPI details will help economists refine their estimates for PCE and core PCE inflation.The US dollar is mixedThe dollar’s largest decline is against the Australian dollar. Its largest gain is against the Japanese yen, although the moves outside the AUD remain modest.From the dollar’s perspective:EUR: USD is higher by approximately 0.02%.JPY: USD is higher by approximately 0.09%.GBP: USD is lower by approximately 0.08%.CHF: USD is higher by approximately 0.07%.CAD: USD is lower by approximately 0.01%.AUD: USD is lower by approximately 0.39%.NZD: USD is lower by approximately 0.07%.AUDUSD is trading near 0.7007 after reaching 0.7013. The Australian dollar’s advance stands out in an otherwise restrained currency market.Currency ranges: Still room to roamATR(22) is the average true range over the last 22 trading days—approximately one month of trading. Comparing today’s high-to-low range with that measure gives us context for how much the pair has moved ahead of the North American session.Using the latest high and low readings over the last 22 trading days (around a month). A low % of ATR could clue traders to the potential of more room to roam.EURUSD and USDJPY have completed only about 38% and 37% of their respective ATRs. GBPUSD is at 44%. All three major pairs have meaningful room to extend if CPI delivers a surprise.AUDUSD has already covered the largest share of its normal range at 75%, consistent with its stronger move this morning.The ATR is context, not a ceiling or a promise that the price must move farther. A strong data surprise can push a pair beyond its average range. If that happens and the price holds near an extreme, it can be a sign that the market is trending.US stock futures at 8:00 AM ETFutures are implying:Dow industrial average: +141 points.S&P 500: +15 points.Nasdaq 100: −59 points.The split leaves the broader market looking firmer while technology shares lag ahead of the inflation release.US Treasury yieldsYields are modestly lower across the curve:2-year: 4.7784%, down 1.46 basis points.5-year: 4.9905%, down 1.65 basis points.10-year: 5.2022%, down 1.48 basis points.30-year: 5.5513%, down 1.17 basis points.The CPI report will test that move. A hotter core reading could reverse the decline, while softer underlying inflation could give bond buyers another reason to push yields lower.Oil rises. Gold and silver retreatCrude oil is trading at $95.91, up $1.77 or 1.88%.InvestingLive’s latest oil coverage highlights unresolved negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz and doubts surrounding a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Those supply risks remain part of the backdrop for elevated oil prices.For today’s CPI report, the distinction matters: higher energy prices can lift headline inflation directly. The core reading helps show whether broader price pressures are becoming more persistent.Other markets:Gold: $4,138.74, down $22.40 or 0.54%.Silver: $58.43, down $0.75 or 1.27%.Copper: $6.7445, up 0.28%.Bitcoin: $83,360, up $267 or 0.32%.China: Factory inflation rises faster than consumer inflationChina’s September CPI rose 0.9% year over year, below the 1.0% forecast and up from 0.8% previously. Producer prices rose 5.0%, above the 4.5% forecast and up from 3.8%. Core consumer inflation held at 1.0%, according to InvestingLive’s China inflation report.That leaves a familiar question for traders: how much of the increase in production costs can businesses pass on to consumers?European equitiesMost major European indices are higher, with Italy the exception:Germany’s DAX: +0.50%.France’s CAC 40: +0.66%.UK’s FTSE 100: +0.28%.Spain’s IBEX 35: +0.24%.Italy’s FTSE MIB: −0.64%.EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD: Watch the break and the follow-throughThe pre-release extremes provide the first reference points for the reaction:EURUSD: Support at the session low of 1.1188; resistance at 1.1211.USDJPY: Support at 158.12; resistance at 158.51.GBPUSD: Support at 1.3245; resistance at 1.3275.A dollar-positive reaction would put the EURUSD and GBPUSD lows—and the USDJPY high—in focus. A dollar-negative reaction would turn attention toward the EURUSD and GBPUSD highs—and the USDJPY low.The data will provide the shove. The price action and the technical tools applied to that price action will tell us whether buyers or sellers can keep control.Watch the nearby swing areas and the 100- and 200-hour moving averages outlined in the video. A break that holds carries more weight than the first spike. If the price breaks an extreme and quickly returns inside the range, that side had its shot—and could not follow through. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.