XAUUSD — Weekly Bearish Head & Shoulders SetupGoldOANDA:XAUUSDKelly_Koou_Gold Gold is entering next week with a bearish medium-term structure after completing a potential Head and Shoulders formation. From Kelly’s view, the chart suggests that XAUUSD remains under selling pressure, while the recent recovery attempts may only be temporary corrections before another downside wave develops. The key idea is simple: gold is still struggling below the 4,200–4,230 resistance zone. If sellers continue defending this area, the Head and Shoulders structure may push price toward 4,080, followed by the stronger support around 3,950. ⟡ Market structure Gold is currently trading around 4,165, following a series of failed recovery attempts beneath the previous resistance structure. The larger chart shows a recognizable Head and Shoulders formation: ◌ Left Shoulder: Formed during the August rally near 4,440–4,460. ◌ Head: The major peak developed around 4,650–4,670. ◌ Right Shoulder: Price formed a lower peak near 4,480–4,500 before sellers regained control. The subsequent breakdown suggests a possible transition from bullish distribution into a medium-term bearish trend. Gold is now consolidating below the 4,200–4,230 resistance zone, where previous support and Fibonacci resistance create an important decision area. For next week, 4,132 is the first support level to monitor. A confirmed breakdown below this level may expose the 4,070–4,085 support zone. If selling pressure continues, the larger downside destination remains near 3,945–3,980, where strong historical support and liquidity are located. ➤ Key levels ◌ Current price area: 4,165 ◌ Main sell zone: 4,200–4,230 ◌ Short-term resistance: 4,200 ◌ First support: 4,132 ◌ Intermediate support: 4,070–4,085 ◌ Strong support / liquidity: 3,945–3,980 ◌ Main bearish target: 3,945–3,960 ◌ Short-term bearish invalidation: Above 4,230–4,250 ⌁ Elliott Wave view The chart suggests that gold may be developing a bearish Elliott Wave sequence following the Head and Shoulders breakdown. Wave (1) began after price rejected from the right shoulder and broke the previous bullish structure. Wave (2) represents a corrective recovery, with 4,200–4,230 remaining the main resistance area to watch. Wave (3) may accelerate lower if gold breaks below 4,132, potentially extending toward 4,070–4,085. Wave (4) could create a temporary rebound from the lower support area, allowing the market to retest broken resistance. Wave (5) may then complete the bearish sequence near 3,945–3,960, where buyers could attempt a stronger reaction. This wave count remains a working scenario rather than a confirmed sequence. A sustained breakout above resistance would require a reassessment. ▸ Trading scenario Preferred bearish scenario Entry: Sell around 4,200–4,230 after bearish rejection confirmation Stop Loss: Above 4,250 Take Profit 1: 4,132 Take Profit 2: 4,070–4,085 Take Profit 3: 3,945–3,980 Alternative bearish scenario If gold breaks below 4,132 and retests this level as resistance, sellers may look for continuation toward 4,070–4,085. A confirmed breakdown below 4,070 would increase the probability of a deeper decline toward 3,945–3,980. Potential recovery scenario If gold reaches the 3,945–3,980 strong support zone and buyers show clear reversal confirmation, a corrective recovery may develop. However, that rebound should initially be viewed as a reaction from support rather than a confirmed medium-term bullish reversal. ◌ Invalidation The immediate bearish scenario becomes weaker if gold breaks above 4,230–4,250 and holds above the resistance zone. A stronger recovery toward the previous right-shoulder area would call the broader Head and Shoulders interpretation into question. ⌁ Kelly’s view Kelly’s main view for next week remains bearish while gold trades below 4,200–4,230. The Head and Shoulders formation suggests that sellers may still control the medium-term direction, with the recent consolidation acting as a potential pause before the next downside move. The cleaner plan is to watch for bearish rejection at resistance or a confirmed breakdown below 4,132, rather than chasing price during consolidation. If sellers maintain control, gold may continue toward 4,070–4,085, followed by the larger liquidity support near 3,945–3,980. The main focus for next week is whether the Head and Shoulders breakdown continues or buyers manage to reclaim the resistance structure. Do you think gold will retest 4,200–4,230 before falling, or break below 4,132 directly next week?