XAUUSD — The Rally Was Real. So Is the Pullback Risk. GoldOANDA:XAUUSDFelix_MacroTrade Gold has recovered strongly from the 4,075 region, but the latest price action is giving me a reason to stay cautious. The bullish structure has improved, yet buyers are struggling to turn that strength into a convincing breakout above 4,200. What interests me now is the relationship between the recent bullish BOS formations and the Fibonacci retracement levels sitting beneath the market. The recovery was impressive. But a strong rally doesn't mean the market is finished correcting. Market Structure — What the SMC Story Reveals Gold initially swept the lower liquidity area near 4,075, where selling pressure failed to produce sustained downside continuation. That reaction triggered a strong bullish displacement, followed by a CHoCH and several bullish Breaks of Structure (BOS). This tells us that buyers successfully shifted the short-term market structure and pushed price toward the 4,185–4,195 region. However, there's one detail I wouldn't ignore. Despite several bullish BOS formations, gold has repeatedly struggled to maintain momentum near the recent highs. The latest rejection pushed price back toward 4,165, suggesting that short-term buying pressure is beginning to fade. This doesn't confirm a bearish reversal, but it does increase the probability of a corrective move toward the demand zones below. Fibonacci — Where I Expect Buyers to React The Fibonacci retracement provides a clearer picture of where the current recovery may find support. The first significant area sits between the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels, approximately 4,120–4,138. This region overlaps with the marked demand area around 4,112–4,138, creating an important technical confluence. If price retraces into this pocket and produces a bullish CHoCH or strong rejection, I would consider it evidence that buyers are attempting to defend the recovery structure. But if this area fails, the next important level is the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement near 4,099. The surrounding 4,090–4,100 demand zone could provide another reaction, although a sustained breakdown would expose the previous swing low near 4,075. For me, these are not automatic buying levels. They are locations where I want to observe how the market responds. The 4,200 Question Above the current price, 4,185–4,195 remains the immediate resistance area. Beyond that, the chart highlights 4,200–4,217 as the major overhead resistance and liquidity region. If buyers reclaim 4,190 and deliver a confirmed bullish BOS above 4,200, the recovery may extend toward 4,217. However, until price accepts higher levels, another rejection could send gold back toward the Fibonacci support pocket. Trading Scenarios — My Preferred Approach Primary View — Pullback Before Continuation I currently favor a corrective pullback while gold remains below 4,190–4,200. A break of the nearby 4,160 support, followed by a failed reclaim, would strengthen the possibility of a decline toward 4,120–4,138. If buyers defend that Fibonacci demand pocket, gold may establish another higher low and attempt a renewed recovery. If the area breaks convincingly, attention shifts toward 4,090–4,100. Alternative View — Bullish Breakout If gold reclaims 4,190 and breaks above 4,200 with strong bullish displacement, I would reconsider the immediate pullback scenario. A successful retest of the breakout area could support continuation toward 4,217. The key is seeing actual price acceptance, not simply a liquidity sweep above resistance. Key Price Zones to Watch Current price area: 4,160–4,165 Immediate resistance: 4,185–4,195 Major resistance / liquidity: 4,200–4,217 First downside trigger: Below 4,160 Main Fibonacci demand: 4,112–4,138 Deeper Fibonacci support: 4,090–4,100 Previous structural low: 4,075 Bullish confirmation: Confirmed BOS above 4,200 Bearish confirmation: Breakdown below 4,160 followed by a failed reclaim Felix's Perspective A bullish BOS tells me buyers have gained control of the recent structure. It doesn't tell me they can defend every pullback. Gold has already shown enough strength to establish a recovery. Now I want to see whether buyers can protect the Fibonacci discount zones when selling pressure returns. For the moment, I favor a retracement toward 4,120–4,138 before considering another sustained bullish leg. If that pocket holds and a bullish structural shift develops, the next attempt toward 4,200 becomes more interesting. If it fails, the market may need to revisit deeper liquidity before rebuilding momentum. Would you wait for gold to retrace into the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci zone, or do you think buyers can break 4,200 without a deeper correction?