H1 Rejection From Major SupplyGoldOANDA:XAUUSDXAU_Macro_Pulse Fundamental Analysis Gold remains caught between two opposing macro forces. September CPI rose 3.7% YoY, while September PPI jumped 1.3% MoM and 6.3% YoY, keeping inflation pressure elevated and limiting the Fed’s room to ease policy. Retail sales also increased 0.8% in September, showing resilient consumer demand. Bureau of Labor Statistics However, markets are currently leaning toward a Fed hold in October. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh avoided signaling the next rate move, while the dollar weakened and Treasury yields fell as expectations for an immediate hike faded. At the same time, AI-related equity stress has supported safe-haven flows into Treasuries, creating a mixed backdrop for Gold. Reuters Technical Analysis On the H1 chart, Gold remains in a recovery structure after the previous CHoCH and BOS, with price respecting the ascending trendline from the 4,074 low. However, the latest move shows a clear rejection from the 4,185–4,195 area near the upper trendline and major supply. Price has now returned to the 4,158–4,166 Resistance Retest / Decision Zone. This is the critical area for the next move. If sellers continue defending this zone, the current rejection can develop into a deeper H1 correction toward the 4,125–4,133 Fibonacci Support / Demand Zone. Important Key Levels - 4,190–4,200: Major Resistance / Supply Zone - 4,158–4,166: Resistance Retest / Decision Zone - 4,125–4,133: First Support / Fibonacci Demand - 4,085–4,095: Second Support - 4,071–4,075: Major Demand Trading Scenario The primary scenario is a bearish H1 correction from the upper supply area. If Gold fails to reclaim 4,158–4,166 and confirms selling pressure below this zone, the next destination could be 4,125–4,133. This area is especially important because it aligns with the Fibonacci structure and ascending trendline. A decisive break below 4,125–4,133 would weaken the current recovery structure and expose 4,085–4,095, with 4,071–4,075 as deeper major demand. The alternative scenario is a reclaim of 4,166 followed by sustained acceptance above the zone. That would reduce bearish pressure and reopen the path toward 4,185–4,200. Sell Condition The bearish setup strengthens if price rejects 4,158–4,166 and produces a confirmed H1 close below the decision zone. A sustained reclaim above 4,166–4,170 would weaken the immediate bearish thesis, while a move back above the upper trendline would invalidate the current correction idea. Overall View Gold is at a key H1 decision point. The broader recovery structure has not failed yet, but the rejection from major supply has shifted short-term momentum toward correction. For now, 4,158–4,166 is the level that matters most. Holding below it keeps 4,125–4,133 as the main downside objective; reclaiming it would put the bullish recovery back in focus. The next H1 reaction around 4,158–4,166 should reveal whether this is a deeper correction or simply another pullback within the recovery structure.