Trading Plan and Analysis - #XAUUSD 19/10/2026GoldOANDA:XAUUSDfntradinglabM30 Timeframe Fed Chair Warsh declined to signal an imminent policy move during remarks at the IMF meetings in Bangkok over the weekend, giving gold a mild tailwind as the week opens. FedWatch now shows an 84.5% chance the Fed leaves rates unchanged this month, a significant shift from the 44% October hike odds that briefly appeared right after last week’s hot CPI print. Traders are pricing in a 91.8% probability of a rate hike in December, so the ceiling on gold remains intact — it’s just been pushed from October to December as the focus point. Gold gains ground above $4,150 as Fed avoids policy signals, geopolitical risks stay in focus +2 Looking at the M30 chart, the structure tells the story of exactly what the last two updates predicted: price pushed up from the 4,073 lows, tested the OB H1 zone at 4,180 - 4,193, printed a CHOCH M30 at the top near 4,200, and pulled back toward 4,175. Price is now consolidating inside the OB H1 zone — neither decisively reclaiming it nor being rejected from it. The BOS M30 signals from the recovery leg are visible, but each push toward 4,200 has stalled. Gold has repeatedly pushed toward that psychological barrier, including moves toward roughly 4,180 - 4,191, but buyers have failed to establish acceptance above it. captainaltcoin The setup this week is defined by one date: the Fed meeting on October 28. With October hike odds near zero and December at ~92%, every data print and Fed speaker comment will be read through the lens of December. The market has less concern about the next Fed meeting, but it has not backed away from the idea that borrowing costs will be higher before year-end. This dynamic keeps gold in a compressed range — supported by lower near-term hike bets, but capped by the December tightening path. fxempire My view is cautiously neutral this week, with the OB H1 zone at 4,180 - 4,193 remaining the key level to resolve. Price is currently inside it, which is the most important development compared to last week when it couldn’t even reach it. A daily close above 4,200 would be the first genuine signal that buyers are taking control; anything short of that and the sell-on-rally bias remains appropriate. 🔴 SELL SCENARIO (primary) Zone to watch: 4,195 - 4,210 (FVG H1 / upper edge of OB H1) Confirms if: rejection here with a bearish CHOCH on M15/M30 Invalidates if: daily close above 4,210 🟢 BUY SCENARIO (breakout) Trigger: daily close above 4,200 with follow-through Targets: 4,228 - 4,250, then 4,290 - 4,300 Invalidates if: price drops back below 4,180 on a daily close 🟢 BUY SCENARIO (pullback) Zone to watch: 4,160 - 4,175 (M30 CHOCH / prior consolidation base) Confirms if: price holds this zone on a dip with a bullish M30 CHOCH Invalidates if: M30 close below 4,155 On key levels, near resistance is 4,195 - 4,210 (FVG H1), further resistance at 4,228 - 4,250. Near support is 4,160 - 4,175, then 4,140 - 4,148. The critical floor remains 4,066 - 4,073. This week’s Fed meeting on October 28 is the macro anchor — no major data before then is likely to shift the picture as dramatically as last week’s CPI. This reflects a personal view and technical read from FN Trading Lab based on current market structure, not financial advice or a specific buy/sell recommendation. Please watch price reaction at the levels mentioned and make your own decisions in line with your own strategy.