黄瑞黎2026年10月19日In Thailand’s carmaking hub of Rayong, China’s largest electric vehicle maker, BYD, built its first factory outside China, a complex the size of 180 football fields. Twenty miles south, a plant once run by General Motors is now owned by China’s Great Wall Motor. A 10-minute drive away, Ford took over a vehicle assembly plant from the Japanese automaker Suzuki.在泰国汽车制造中心罗勇府，中国最大的电动汽车制造商比亚迪建成了它在海外的第一家工厂，占地面积相当于180个足球场。往南约30公里，一家曾由通用汽车运营的工厂如今归中国长城汽车所有。驱车10分钟外，福特从日本汽车制造商铃木手中接管了一家汽车组装厂。All of this happened in the past five years — evidence of an industry in upheaval.这一切都发生在过去五年间，足见这个行业正在经历怎样的剧变。For decades, Japanese automakers dominated Thailand. They arrived in the 1960s, built supply chains and transformed the country into the “Detroit of the East.”几十年来，泰国汽车市场的主导者一直是日本车企。它们从20世纪60年代开始进入泰国，建立供应链，把这个国家变成了“东方底特律”。Then the Chinese automakers arrived.然后，中国汽车制造商来了。Today, they control about 85 percent of Thailand’s electric vehicle market, up from almost zero four years ago. Japanese automakers, slow to embrace the technology, have struggled. In 2024 and 2025, Subaru and Suzuki shut down their Thai plants, while Nissan and Honda have scaled back production.如今，中国车企在泰国的电动车市场占据了85%的份额，而四年前，这一比例还几乎为零。日本汽车制造商因迟迟未能拥抱这项技术而举步维艰。2024年和2025年，斯巴鲁和铃木关闭了在泰国的工厂，日产和本田则缩减了产量。Several Thai auto-parts suppliers that depended on Japanese manufacturers went bankrupt, threatening a supply chain that employs about 700,000 workers.一些依赖日本汽车制造商的泰国汽车零部件供应商相继破产，威胁到一条雇用了约70万名工人的供应链。“It was much faster than anything we had expected,” said Supavud Saicheua, chairman of the National Economic and Social Development Council, the central economic planning agency in Thailand.“这一切发生得比我们预想的快得多，”泰国中央经济规划机构国家经济与社会发展委员会主席素帕武·赛集瓦说。“We didn’t think of the full picture,” he added. “The impact on Thailand has been much more adverse than we had thought.”“我们当初没有考虑到全局，”他补充道。“泰国受到的负面影响远比我们预想的严重。”中国最大的电动汽车制造商比亚迪位于泰国罗勇府的汽车组装厂。2026年前七个月，电动汽车占泰国新车销量的三分之一。To some, Thailand is a cautionary tale about the unintended consequences of opening the door to China’s electric vehicle manufacturers. The lesson could resonate elsewhere. President Trump has seemed open to welcoming China’s E.V. brands to manufacture in the United States despite tariffs that effectively block their entry into the market. The European Union is struggling to rein in Chinese vehicles, despite imposing tariffs.在一些人看来，泰国的经历是一个警示，说明向中国电动汽车制造商敞开大门可能带来意想不到的后果。这一教训可能会在其他地方引起共鸣。尽管美国征收的关税实际上将中国电动汽车挡在市场之外，特朗普总统似乎仍愿意欢迎中国电动汽车品牌赴美设厂。欧盟虽然也加征了关税，却依然难以遏制中国汽车的涌入。Thailand is trying to contain the damage. Last month, Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul traveled to Tokyo to reassure Japanese automakers. A month earlier, he had ordered a review of policies that Japanese firms say put them at a disadvantage.泰国正努力控制损失。上个月，总理阿努廷·参威拉军前往东京，对日本汽车制造商进行安抚。一个月前，他曾下令审查日本企业所称的使它们处于不利地位的政策。Few in Thailand think gas-guzzling cars are the future. Electric vehicles made up a third of new car sales in the first seven months of 2026. It is easy to see the consumer appeal of the Chinese cars. Many offer technology like large display screens and autonomous driving at low prices. (Mr. Anutin owns BYD’s electric S.U.V., the Sealion 7.)泰国很少有人认为耗油车代表着未来。2026年前七个月，电动汽车占泰国新车销量的三分之一。中国汽车为何受到消费者欢迎并不难理解。许多车型价格低廉，却配备了大尺寸显示屏、自动驾驶等技术。（阿努廷本人就拥有一辆比亚迪的电动SUV——海狮07。）But policymakers are concerned about the influx. In the first seven months of this year, about two-thirds of electric vehicles sold in Thailand were imported, primarily from China.但大量中国电动汽车涌入令政策制定者感到担忧。今年前七个月，泰国售出的电动汽车约有三分之二是进口车，主要来自中国。The government is trying to curb the flood. Last month, it unveiled a three-tier tax system that imposes the highest rates on automakers importing vehicles with no plans for local production and the lowest on those that source a large share of their parts locally.政府正试图遏制这股洪流。上个月，泰国公布了一套三级税制：对没有本地生产计划、纯进口车辆的汽车制造商征收最高税率，对本地零部件采购比例高的企业征收最低税率。But Ruth Banomyong, a professor of supply chain management at Thammasat University in Thailand, said there was little evidence that Thailand was benefiting. Chinese automakers, he said, operate within a “closed ecosystem” that makes it difficult for Thai companies to enter their supply chains because the core technology remains in China.但泰国法政大学供应链管理教授鲁斯·巴诺米勇说，几乎没有证据表明泰国从中受益。他表示，中国汽车制造商在一个“封闭的生态系统”内运作，核心技术仍掌握在中国，因此泰国企业很难进入它们的供应链。He and his colleagues have estimated that 300,000 jobs could disappear within five years if electric vehicles dominate Thailand’s auto market.他和同事估计，如果电动汽车主导泰国汽车市场，未来五年可能有30万个工作岗位消失。“The trickle-down effect is very minimal,” said Mr. Ruth, a former adviser to Thailand’s previous commerce minister.“带动其他行业受益的效果微乎其微，”曾担任泰国前商务部长顾问的鲁斯说。工会负责人曾提醒工人，电动车可能给汽车行业带来变化。泰国汽车劳工大会主席托索蓬·昆西说，中国电动汽车制造商经常与泰国工人签订短期合同，完成短期生产任务后便将工人解雇，而且不支付遣散费。Tossophol Kunsri, president of the Automobile Labor Congress of Thailand, one of the country’s biggest autoworkers’ union, said Chinese electric vehicle makers often hired Thai workers for short-term contracts in brief production runs, then laid them off without severance pay.泰国规模最大的汽车工人工会之一——泰国汽车劳工大会主席托索蓬·昆西说，中国电动汽车制造商经常与泰国工人签订短期合同，完成短期生产任务后便将工人解雇，而且不支付遣散费。He said the Chinese companies rejected unions. By contrast, he said, he maintained respectful relationships with Japanese automakers, which were willing to negotiate annual salary increases and bonuses.他说，中国公司拒绝工会。相比之下，他说，他与日本汽车制造商保持着相互尊重的关系，后者愿意就每年的加薪和奖金进行谈判。Mr. Tossophol said that he had complained to the government about the Chinese companies’ labor practices and that the labor minister had agreed to investigate.托索蓬说，他已就中国企业的劳工做法向政府投诉，劳工部长已同意进行调查。“We’re standing at a crossroads,” he said. “Are we still going to be an actual automotive manufacturing base, or are we just going to be a market for cheap Chinese E.V.s?”“我们正站在十字路口，”他说。“我们究竟是要成为一个真正的汽车制造基地，还是最终只会沦为廉价中国电动汽车的销售市场？”‘We Thought It Was Still Far Off’“我们以为那一天还远着呢”In 2011, Netsana Sakulpolpanya started working at a car parts factory in Thailand’s Samut Prakan Province, making exhaust systems and mufflers for Toyota, its biggest customer.2011年，内萨娜·沙恭蓬帕尼亚开始在泰国北榄府一家汽车零件厂工作，为该厂最大的客户丰田生产排气系统和消音器。Her company embodied the homegrown industry that supplied Japan’s automakers. Ms. Netsana earned $440 a month operating molds and pressing machinery.她所在的公司正是泰国本土汽车零部件产业的一个缩影，这个产业一直为日本汽车制造商提供配套产品。内萨娜负责操作模具和冲压设备，月薪440美元。Her first years were a boom. In 2012, she received an extra five months of salary and a $740 bonus. The money helped her care for her disabled sister and pay for her niece’s education at a university.刚入职的那几年是公司的兴旺时期。2012年，她拿到了相当于五个月工资的额外收入，还有740美元的奖金。这笔钱帮助她照顾身有残疾的妹妹，并支付侄女的大学学费。这座比亚迪工厂于2024年投产，生产的汽车出口到东南亚各国、澳大利亚和欧洲。2023年9月，亿万富翁房地产开发商赛塔·他威信出任总理，他决心吸引外国投资。In 2022, Thailand’s prime minister at the time, Prayuth Chan-ocha, declared electric vehicles crucial to the country’s economic future and its fight against pollution. He set a target for zero-emission vehicles to account for 30 percent of the country’s vehicle production by 2030.2022年，时任泰国总理巴育·占奥差宣布，电动汽车对泰国未来的经济发展和治理污染至关重要。他提出，到2030年，零排放汽车要占全国汽车产量的30%。Ms. Netsana said union leaders had warned workers about the changes that electric vehicles could bring.内萨娜说，工会负责人曾提醒工人，电动汽车可能给行业带来变化。“We honestly thought it was still far off,” she said.“说实话，我们当时以为那一天还远着呢，”她说。Then the government rolled out tax cuts and subsidies and allowed electric vehicles to be imported for two years before automakers had to meet local manufacturing requirements. A free-trade agreement between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations meant the vehicles faced no customs duty.随后，政府推出减税和补贴政策，允许车企先进口电动汽车两年，再满足本地生产要求。由于中国与东南亚国家联盟签有自由贸易协定，意味着这些汽车进口时无需缴纳关税。Within months, Chinese brands like Changan, GAC Aion, Neta and Chery were driving on Thai roads.短短几个月内，长安、广汽埃安、哪吒和奇瑞等中国品牌就出现在泰国街头。Ms. Netsana watched orders fall. Overtime disappeared. Her company began telling workers to stay home some days and cut wages to 75 percent of normal pay.内萨娜眼看着公司的订单越来越少。加班机会消失了。公司开始要求工人有时待在家里不用上班，并将工资削减至正常水平的75%。In September 2023, Srettha Thavisin, a billionaire real estate developer, became prime minister with a mission to court foreign investment. His first stop was China. Chinese carmakers were looking abroad to escape a domestic market saddled with overcapacity and brutal price wars.2023年9月，亿万富翁房地产开发商赛塔·他威信出任总理，决心吸引外国投资。他上任后访问的第一个国家就是中国。当时，中国汽车制造商正寻求向海外扩张，以摆脱国内市场产能过剩和残酷价格战的困境。Mr. Srettha said he felt he had little choice but to court them. Otherwise, they were likely to have gone to Vietnam or Malaysia. In hindsight, he said, his government should have tracked more closely how many Thai workers the Chinese companies employed and how much they sourced from Thai suppliers.赛塔说，他觉得自己几乎别无选择，只能积极争取这些企业前来投资，否则它们很可能转而前往越南或马来西亚。回头来看，他认为自己的政府本应更密切地关注中国企业究竟雇用了多少泰国工人，又从泰国供应商那里采购了多少零部件。Ms. Netsana’s company declared bankruptcy and shut down in 2024. Nearly 900 Thai workers lost their jobs without severance pay.2024年，内萨娜所在的公司宣布破产关门。近900名泰国工人失去了工作，而且没有拿到遣散费。Ms. Netsana, 49, now earns $11 a day working at a supermarket. She said she did not apply to the Chinese factories because a friend told her that they hire only young workers.49岁的内萨娜现在在超市工作，每天挣11美元。她说她没有申请中国工厂的工作，因为一位朋友告诉她，他们只招年轻工人。“I blame the government for failing to manage the transition fairly,” Ms. Netsana said.“我怪政府未能公平地管理好转型，”内萨娜说。A Factory Under Scrutiny一座受到审查的工厂当天的汽车生产目标为4000辆。截至下午3点52分，已完成3409辆。当被问及汽车零部件有多少来自中国时，比亚迪泰国公司总经理柯育滨说，汽车零部件种类繁多，“很难逐一详细说明”。At BYD’s factory in Rayong, workers intertwined multicolored wires into wiring harnesses, the nervous systems of electric vehicles. A sign warned: “No playing with mobile phones or loafing on duty.”在比亚迪位于罗勇府的工厂里，工人们将五颜六色的电线编织成线束。这些线束就像电动汽车的神经系统。一块告示牌警告：“上班期间严禁玩手机、磨洋工。”Elsewhere, robotic arms welded together the frame of the BYD Atto 3, an electric sport utility vehicle. When it launched in Thailand, customers lined up overnight to buy it. This section operated around the clock.工厂的另一处，机械臂正在焊接比亚迪Atto 3电动SUV的车架。这款车型刚在泰国上市时，顾客曾彻夜排队抢购。这个生产区域全天24小时运转。An overhead monitor displayed the day’s production target of 4,000 cars. By 3.52 p.m., 3,409 were complete.一块悬挂在高处的显示屏显示，当天的生产目标是4000辆汽车。截至下午3点52分，已经完成3409辆。Opened in 2024, the BYD factory exports cars to across Southeast Asia, Australia and Europe. But American and European trade regulators have scrutinized it, questioning whether it functions as a final assembly plant to circumvent tariffs.这座比亚迪工厂于2024年投产，生产的汽车出口到东南亚各地、澳大利亚和欧洲。但美国和欧洲的贸易监管机构一直对其进行审查，质疑它是否只是一座为规避关税而设立的总装厂。Asked what percentage of car parts came from China, Benson Ke, BYD’s general manager in Thailand, said there were so many components that “it’s difficult to go into great detail.”当被问及汽车零部件有多少来自中国时，比亚迪泰国公司总经理柯育滨说，汽车零部件种类繁多，“很难逐一详细说明”。He said BYD bought steel sheets locally and assembled batteries in Thailand with local partners. The factory employs 5,600 workers, 94 percent of them Thai, he said, and has received “high ratings for genuine localized manufacturing” during inspections.他说，比亚迪在当地购买钢板，并与当地合作伙伴在泰国组装电池。他说，工厂雇用了5600名工人，其中94%是泰国人，工厂在接受检查时，其“真正实现本地化生产的程度获得了很高的评价”。他说，检查结果显示，工厂在真正实现本地化生产方面获得了“很高的评分”。When we first met Mr. Ke, he was at a Bangkok motor show unveiling new models. Several attendees said they were considering buying their second BYD.我们第一次见到柯育滨时，他正在曼谷车展上发布新车型。几位参观者说，他们正在考虑购买第二辆比亚迪。Mr. Ke welcomed the government’s policy to raise excise taxes on imported vehicles, saying it would help control supply and price competition.柯育滨对政府提高进口汽车消费税的政策表示欢迎，认为这有助于控制供应量和价格竞争。It is easy to see why. BYD has invested more than $1 billion in its Rayong factory.原因不难理解。比亚迪已在罗勇府的工厂投资超过10亿美元。Yet on a recent visit, signs of BYD’s connections to its Chinese supply chain were plentiful. BYD used Kuka robots, once German-owned, now controlled by China’s Midea. Boxes carrying wiring components bore Chinese addresses. Battery cells were imported from China.然而，最近走访这座工厂时，记者发现，处处可见比亚迪与中国供应链之间的联系。比亚迪使用的是库卡机器人，这个品牌原本属于德国企业，如今由中国美的集团控制。装有线束零部件的箱子上印着中国地址。电池电芯也是从中国进口的。To Thai consumers, it might not matter.对泰国消费者来说，这可能无关紧要。Nithi Thuamprathom, a Bangkok-based automotive reviewer with 1.2 million YouTube subscribers, said his Thai viewers asked him to review Chinese electric vehicles that offered features like adaptive cruise control and 360-degree cameras at prices that often undercut Japanese competitors.曼谷车评人尼提·通帕通在YouTube上有120万订阅者，他说泰国观众要求他评测中国电动汽车，这些车提供自适应巡航控制和360度全景摄像头等功能，价格却往往低于日本竞争对手的车型。“The era of Japanese carmakers’ enjoying 60 years of easy profits in Thailand is over,” Mr. Nithi said. “Now they have to adapt to real competition.”“日本汽车制造商在泰国享受了60年的轻松赚钱时代已经结束，”尼提说。“现在他们必须适应真正的竞争。”泰国一家为燃油车生产零部件的小工厂。在比亚迪工厂的组装线末端，汽车正在接受最后一道检查。摄影：Kittiphum Sringammuang黄瑞黎(Sui-Lee Wee)是《纽约时报》亚洲商业记者。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。