Every year, a commission agent from Uttar Pradesh’s Saharanpur visits the Bhattakuffer fruit market in Shimla to trade in apples on a commission basis.This year, however, Abdul sent his two brothers back to Saharanpur before the apple season ended. The reason was a sharp decline in apple arrivals and market business.“I cannot tell exactly how much I earned last year, but one thing is certain: business this time is barely 30 to 40 per cent of what we did here last year.” Abdul was bidding for a lot of around 20 apple cartons at an open auction at the fruit market along National Highway-5 near Dhalli on the outskirts of Shimla.Nearly 80 km away, in Kotgarh, progressive horticulturist and a pioneer in apple cultivation Hari Chand Roach echoed similar concerns. Kotgarh is said to be one of the state’s prominent apple-producing areas.“This year, I harvested barely 20 per cent of the crop I obtained from my orchard last year. Last year, my total production was about 3,000 universal cartons of 20 kg each. This year, I have harvested only around 800 boxes… apple growers across the state have reported similarly low production.”The experiences of Abdul and Roach reflect the severe downturn in the state’s apple economy this season.Also Read | Shimla apple grower wins Rs 3.52 lakh relief after buyers ‘withhold’ payment for 352 boxesExperts attribute the decline primarily to adverse weather conditions, including untimely frost, inadequate winter chilling, insufficient soil moisture, and temperature fluctuations. These factors affect flowering and subsequent development of the fruit.Story continues below this adDirector of Horticulture, Himachal Pradesh, Satish Kumar Sharma said, “The state recorded an overall apple production of 6.99 lakh metric tonnes in 2025. By September 14, 2025, around 4.20 lakh metric tonnes had arrived in the markets. In contrast, market arrivals this year had reached only 1.29 lakh metric tonnes by October 14.”“The state was expecting an apple crop of 3.50 lakh to four lakh metric tonnes this year. However, the trend in market arrivals does not indicate that we will be able to achieve the target.” He expressed hope that the production would improve in the coming years.Also Read | Four months ahead of monsoon: Experts sensitise apple farmers to keep fungal diseases Alternaria and Marssonina at bayHorticulture scientist Dr Usha Sharma, in-charge of Krishi Vigyan Kendra (KVK), Rohru, said weather-related stress was a major factor, but other issues also contributed to the decline. “Several lower-altitude apple-growing areas, particularly in parts of Solan, Hamirpur, Shimla, Kullu and Sirmaur districts, were severely affected. Last year in some areas, flowering occurred in September and October, instead of the standard period in March and April. In other areas, where flowering took place at the appropriate time, rising temperatures adversely affected blossoms and fruit setting,” she told The Indian Express.She also pointed to premature leaf fall reported in several apple-growing areas last year, partly associated with fungal diseases such as Alternaria. The loss of healthy foliage, which is essential for nutrient storage and the development of the following season’s crop, may also have contributed to lower production this year, Dr Sharma said.Story continues below this adExperts said inadequate cold-temperature hours during winter, water stress during flowering and fruit setting, ageing orchards, disease incidence and the use of old or inferior planting material were additional concerns. They stressed the need for healthy, virus-free plants, improved nursery infrastructure, orchard rejuvenation and better water management.Also Read | Why Himachal CM Sukhu asked the Centre for 100% import duty on applesThe state’s average apple productivity remains around four to five tonnes per hectare. This stays considerably below the reported productivity of 40 to 50 tonnes per hectare in some high-performing orchards in countries like China and the United States.An orchardist, Suresh Guthan, said, “Improving planting material, adopting modern orchard-management practices, and strengthening disease surveillance would be crucial to improving productivity and making apple cultivation more resilient to changing climatic conditions.”