By Orlando Pérez – Oct 16, 2026What was already a heavy blow to Ecuador’s economy in 2024 has returned now despite warnings from technicians, experts, and business leaders who supported Daniel Noboa’s presidential bid and are now victims of “scheduled disconnections” of up to 72 hours amid an energy crisis caused by El Niño, the seasonal dry period at this time of year, and several cases of corruption in the purchase of thermoelectric generators intended to compensate for shortages from hydroelectric plants.What happened in 2024 hurt overall economic growth, with losses above $2 billion, and raised serious questions about crisis management due to a lack of planning, prevention, and maintenance of thermoelectric plants (as shown in a report from the Central Bank of Ecuador, BCE). The current situation could cost much more, not only in growth but also in employment and company closures because of the government’s decision not to supply electricity to over 9,000 firms.The same BCE study explains the causes of the current crisis, warned of in 2024, that did not receive urgent attention from Noboa’s government:1) Dependence on hydroelectricity and vulnerability to the dry season. When river flows fall, available electricity drops. The concentration of plants in basins simultaneously affected by the dry season worsens the problem. Having an installed plant does not guarantee it can produce at full capacity when water is lacking.2) Demand grew faster than generation. According to the BCE, between 2019 and 2023, electricity consumption rose 19% while generation increased 9%. That gap reduced the margin to cope with droughts, breakdowns, and maintenance.3) Aging and insufficient thermal backup. The BCE documented 13 thermoelectric plants between 30 and 52 years old, along with unexpected unavailabilities. In 2026, the State Electricity Corporation announced a plan to add 920 MW of thermal capacity through rentals and purchases. However, announcing or contracting that capacity does not mean it is already operating.The main authorities responsible for this sector did not take urgent and immediate measures, partly relying on the idea that the current deficit (above 1,300 megawatts) could be supplemented with energy from Colombia given the good political relations between the two right-wing presidents. Noboa even tried to reassure citizens, saying talks with his counterpart Abelardo de la Espriella would facilitate a contribution exceeding 200 megawatts per day. This supplementation did not happen because Colombia is also facing the seasonal dry period.In fact, the Consulting Council of Engineering and Economics, which is closely linked to the Ecuadorian government, says the main cause of the current crisis is repeated noncompliance with the Master Electricity Plan, a document that set out priority works in generation, transmission, and distribution. New and larger megawatt sources that could have come from photovoltaic, geothermal, thermal, and hydroelectric projects were not added.In the same direction, the Dolarization Observatory, a collective of economic experts, described the situation as extremely serious, noting:The manifest negligence in managing the energy sector, and specifically new electricity generation, can be seen in the execution of the Ministry of Energy’s investment plan: in 2024, there is no investment allocated during a full emergency that was certainly not short-term. In 2025, they initially record $206.9 million but do not lift a finger to execute beyond planning. In 2026, they eliminate ‘additional emergency generation’ and reframe it as ‘additional generation to ensure energy sovereignty,’ and despite downward budgetary reforms, they execute nothing. APAGONES: SUBEJECUCIÓN PRESUPUESTARIA DELIBERADALa negligencia manifiesta para administrar el sector energético y específicamente la generación eléctrica nueva se puede evidenciar en la ejecución del plan de inversiones del Ministerio de Energía: 2024 no hay inversión asignada… pic.twitter.com/7ALq2dL9Tu— Observatorio de la Dolarización (@dolarizacionEc) October 13, 2026The Council also condemned corruption in projects, many declared in emergency, such as the well-known Progen and ATM cases, where of the 241 megawatts that were supposed to be generated, only 30 are actually ready. Adding to this are State economic losses exceeding $200 million due to undue payments and unpaid invoices.A significant cause is poor, bureaucratic public contracting for emergencies, since the process to lease 260 megawatts of firm energy failed six times. The process for a new combined-cycle plant was declared void because the invited company did not submit a formal offer, and nine processes face problems and delays in award and contract signing that could have been completed by mid-year.Less employment and production, more inflation, and a drop in GDPThe obligation to disconnect affects more than 9,000 high- and medium-voltage consumer companies, including major agricultural producers, shopping centers, ports with refrigerated warehouses, among others. One of them is the shrimp industry, one of Ecuador’s three largest export products.In a statement, the National Aquaculture Chamber warned that “the energy crisis is pushing the shrimp chain into a critical situation. The extension of cuts and the uncertainty about service restoration put at risk the survival of living organisms, product preservation, and the continuity of companies that support employment and exports. In a few weeks, restrictions have escalated from 24 to 48, and then to 72 hours per week… For companies without their own generation, a disconnection of this duration is equivalent to a total halt in operations.”BOLETÍN | LA PROFUNDIZACIÓN DE LOS CORTES ELÉCTRICOS PONE EN RIESGO LA CONTINUIDAD DE LA CADENA CAMARONERALa Cámara Nacional de Acuacultura advierte que la crisis energética está llevando a la cadena camaronera a una situación crítica. La ampliación de los cortes y la… pic.twitter.com/gxxvr3Zzwh— Cámara Acuacultura (@cnaecuador) October 14, 2026All this explains what is happening to the rest of the country’s productive and industrial sector, which has asked to hold talks with Noboa to agree on a solution that includes economic reparations, fresh credit, and subsidies. However, the president insists that sales are rising, unemployment is falling, and the situation is improving because of the measures adopted.However, the problem goes beyond the “disconnection.” The situation worsens for those who must run their own generators because, in addition to higher electricity tariffs and the use of more expensive fuels, several companies have now reported a diesel shortage in recent weeks.According to several business guilds, all services are registering cost overruns that increase final production prices and reduce competitiveness, for example, of Ecuadorian shrimp in international markets. They also warn of uncertainty about meeting shipments that could lead international buyers to seek other suppliers, especially during the Christmas and year-end season.The hardest thing happened since last weekend: several citizens reported power cuts in residential areas of the country’s most populated cities. According to experts, the outages recorded in several provinces are government decisions to preserve water reserves in the Mazar reservoir.Last One Out, Shut Off the LightsElectrical systems engineer Alejandro Jaya, a specialist in power systems and photovoltaic regulation, explained that low generation and growing demand keep the system under pressure. Meanwhile, the lack of energy imports from Colombia worsens the scenario. For him, it is not possible to disconnect only commercial users through a centralized mechanism, since electrical networks supply residential, commercial, and industrial sectors in a shared way. Therefore, restrictions can affect different types of consumers depending on each circuit’s configuration. (Diario Red)Translation: Orinoco TribuneOT/JRE/SF