The International Monetary Fund in its most recent forecast raised India’s GDP growth rate to 7 per cent for 2026-27, up from 6.4 per cent in July, suggesting “stronger than expected momentum” for a country that has anchored resilient domestic demand and services-driven sectoral growth. The RBI, too, has pushed India’s growth prospects to 7.1 per cent this year while also increasing short-term interest rates amid rising inflation.This comes against the backdrop of recent quarterly growth data, where the economy was highlighted to be growing at 7.8 per cent in the April-to-June quarter. These appear to be impressive numbers for an emerging market economy (EME).AdvertisementIndia’s macroeconomic fundamentals so far have withstood a series of shocks, accentuated by the West Asian crisis, which has imposed serious supply-side concerns and imported inflationary risks. Adding to this is a growing, unsustainable pile of accumulated debt and (high) borrowed capital cost for most developing and developed countries, which have fiscally strained (and drained) nations leaving too much in the hands of monetary policy.India’s macro-position in this global climate of chaos appears stable for now, despite a volatile rupee, but doesn’t insulate it. Brewing uncertainty may well continue in a geopolitical climate of crisis, creating chaos in financial markets triggered by changing pricing of US bond yield rates, a fragile dollar valuation, and a hyper AI-investment fuelled stock-market bubble, all of which are increasing capital flight risks from EMEs (and other countries), including India.For India’s economy, now entering its most consequential growth quarter fuelled by the demand of the festive season, a few pointers need closer monitoring.AdvertisementThe key macro challenges are clear: Manage inflation, address structural issues behind high unemployment and exacerbating inequality, and make sufficient interventions to allow cheaper capital to flow across sectors for productive growth.Yet while a growth rate number is suggestive of macro-production activity, it never really tells the full story. One needs to pay attention to the context in which that economic growth happens; its granular diffusion in actual well-being amongst the citizenry (across different groups and classes); the share of productive investment creating good jobs, and the actual share of household demand, all of which is critical, in the evolution of the statistical framework putting the headline number in perspective.Must Read | The GDP debate: India’s growth numbers have a credibility problemFor India, there are other underlying concerns “hidden” in the IMF’s forecast number. Despite the expansion of the economy in a relative sense, informality in India across sectors continues to widen, whereby more workers, especially those migrating from rural to urban areas, are finding less “good” job opportunities in the organised space, and/or are otherwise choosing to remain out of it due to poor wages, high living costs, and more difficult working conditions.This is where India’s growth and its subsequent development story, despite what quarterly data indicate, merits an intersectional approach. An intersectional growth validation, as an economic mechanism, needs to be established in the formal interpretation of a heterogeneously placed economic landscape, answering questions around who participates in and benefits from higher “real” growth versus who doesn’t.you may likeAfter all, the increasing volume of resentment expressed against the state, heard quite clearly in youth-driven street protests, shows another reality. This is where the government must realise that it should shift the focus from GDP numbers and economic projections to a prosperity-driven process of growth.India’s growth and its development trajectory also needs better, more decentralised policy coordination with states, and a deeper state-market interaction to avoid monopolistic control across sectors.The writer is dean and professor of Economics, O P Jindal Global University, a visiting professor at LSE and visiting research fellow at the University of Oxford