XAUUSD – SMC Supply Rejection: Will Gold Sweep Lower Liquidity? GoldOANDA:XAUUSDHannah_Marland Gold is currently trading around 4,165 after another unsuccessful attempt to break through the major resistance area near 4,190 – 4,200. The latest price action shows that gold is continuing to consolidate inside a broad ascending channel. Buyers have repeatedly defended the lower demand zones, but sellers remain active whenever price approaches the upper supply areas. The most important development is that gold has recovered from the lower liquidity region near 4,075 – 4,085, yet the rebound has struggled to establish a sustained move above 4,187 – 4,200. This creates an interesting market situation: the broader channel remains constructive, but the internal structure suggests that sellers may attempt another downward rotation before a stronger bullish breakout can develop. The key question is whether gold will revisit lower liquidity first or finally reclaim the overhead supply structure. From the Smart Money Concepts (SMC) perspective, gold is currently showing repeated liquidity reactions within a defined trading range. The previous decline toward 4,075 – 4,085 tested liquidity beneath earlier short-term lows. Buyers responded aggressively, creating a sharp recovery toward the upper half of the channel. However, the recent recovery toward 4,190 – 4,200 has failed to produce a convincing bullish continuation. This area represents the main SMC supply zone, where previous buying attempts have encountered selling pressure. The nearby level around 4,187 also acts as an important structural barrier. If price remains below this level, sellers may continue to defend the upper portion of the range. A move into 4,190 – 4,200 could represent another attempt to collect buy-side liquidity above previous swing highs. If that move is followed by bearish displacement and a confirmed market structure shift, it would strengthen the possibility of another corrective decline. However, a sustained break above the supply zone would challenge this bearish interpretation. The channel structure provides a broader perspective. Gold remains inside a slightly ascending channel, where the lower boundary continues to provide potential support and the upper boundary gradually rises toward higher resistance. The chart highlights 4,243 – 4,258 as the upper channel resistance zone. This area becomes important if buyers successfully reclaim the immediate supply around 4,190 – 4,200 and overcome the higher resistance near 4,216. Above the upper channel resistance, the next liquidity reference is around 4,299, followed by the extended resistance zone at 4,315 – 4,330. These higher levels represent potential bullish expansion targets, but they should not be treated as active objectives until price confirms a breakout above the nearer resistance areas. From the trendline perspective, the broader rising boundaries remain intact, but the internal bullish momentum has become less convincing. The latest recovery has failed to maintain a clear sequence of higher highs, while repeated rejection near 4,190 – 4,200 suggests that buyers are struggling to establish control. The dashed internal trendline around 4,150 is now an important short-term reference. If gold loses this area and fails to recover, sellers may begin pushing price toward the lower half of the channel. The most important downside support remains around 4,075 – 4,085, where previous sell-side liquidity was tested. A deeper liquidity extension toward 4,063 cannot be excluded if the demand structure fails. Key levels to watch: Current price: 4,165 Immediate decision level: 4,187 Main SMC supply zone: 4,190 – 4,200 Higher resistance: 4,216 Upper channel resistance: 4,243 – 4,258 Major liquidity reference: 4,299 Extended resistance zone: 4,315 – 4,330 Internal trendline support: 4,145 – 4,155 First downside support: 4,120 – 4,140 Key demand level: 4,106 Lower liquidity support: 4,075 – 4,085 Deep liquidity reference: 4,063 Bullish confirmation: Sustained break above 4,200 Bearish confirmation: Break below 4,140 If gold continues to hold above 4,145 – 4,155, buyers may attempt another recovery toward 4,187, followed by the main supply zone around 4,190 – 4,200. This is the first important area where sellers may react again. If price tests this zone and produces a liquidity sweep followed by bearish displacement, the current recovery may turn into another corrective decline. Under this scenario, gold may initially return toward 4,145 – 4,155. A confirmed breakdown below 4,140 would increase selling pressure and expose the next demand areas around 4,120 and 4,106. If 4,106 fails to attract a meaningful bullish reaction, sellers may continue toward the lower liquidity support near 4,075 – 4,085. A deeper move could test 4,063, which represents an important liquidity reference beneath the current range. This would indicate a larger downward rotation within the broad channel, rather than automatically confirming a long-term bearish reversal. However, the bullish alternative remains important. If gold breaks above 4,200 and successfully retests the former supply as support, the short-term bullish structure would improve. The next resistance would be 4,216, followed by the upper channel zone around 4,243 – 4,258. A sustained breakout above 4,258 could open the way toward 4,299, followed by the extended resistance region around 4,315 – 4,330. For this scenario to become convincing, buyers must establish acceptance above the resistance structure rather than simply sweep liquidity and return to the range. From a risk-management perspective, the current market remains between internal trendline support and overhead supply. A bullish recovery from support does not automatically confirm a breakout, just as rejection from supply does not guarantee a decline. The most reliable information will come from the market's reaction around the liquidity zones, followed by confirmation through structure and displacement. Hannah’s view: Gold continues to trade within a broad ascending channel, but the internal structure remains vulnerable after repeated rejection around 4,190 – 4,200. My immediate focus is the 4,187 – 4,200 resistance region. If sellers defend this area and price confirms a bearish market structure shift, gold may rotate lower toward 4,140, followed by 4,120 – 4,106. If the selling pressure continues, the next major liquidity destination becomes 4,075 – 4,085, with 4,063 acting as the deeper downside reference. However, if buyers reclaim 4,200 and sustain the breakout, gold may recover toward 4,216, then 4,243 – 4,258. A stronger bullish expansion could eventually bring 4,299 and 4,315 – 4,330 into focus. Main view: Gold remains range-bound inside a broader ascending channel, but repeated rejection beneath 4,187 – 4,200 suggests that another corrective move toward lower liquidity is possible. A break below 4,140 would strengthen the bearish scenario, while sustained acceptance above 4,200 would support a recovery toward the upper channel. No confirmation means no trade. Do you think gold will sweep the liquidity near 4,080 – 4,063 before recovering, or will buyers break through 4,200 and push toward the upper channel resistance first?