CADJPY: Back at the September Ceiling. Time to Sell?Canadian Dollar vs. Japanese YenFX:CADJPYAlgoVaultsCADJPY has finally broken out of its three-week box. Monday pushed through 111.80 and it's now trading around 112.50. The problem for buyers? It's running straight into the September ceiling. As always, I start top-down: weekly for the bigger picture, daily and 4H for the zone, then the 1H for the entry. Weekly: September was a big month. Price dropped from above 115.40 to 110.20 in a matter of weeks. The monthly MACD crossed bearish in September, the first bearish cross since August 2024. The weekly 20 and 50 MA are both sitting above price at 113.50-113.90. Daily: The first bounce after the September flush stalled at 112.90. The next rally stalled lower, at 112.58. Lower high. Then price dropped to 110.17 and spent three weeks basing between 110.40 and 111.80. Monday's breakout has taken it right back to that 112.60-112.90 area. The daily 50 MA is sitting right there too, around 112.60. Old supply, a lower high and the 50 MA, all inside one 30 pip zone. 4H: Six of the last seven 4H candles are green. RSI is above 70 and price is stretched well above the 20 MA around 111.70. That's overextended straight into resistance. For me that's where you look for sellers, not where you start buying. The backdrop helps too. Canadian inflation came in softer than expected, and with USDJPY near 158.50 the intervention talk on the yen hasn't gone away. 1H: My sell zone is 112.60-112.90. Trigger is a clean 1H rejection inside it. A long upper wick or a bearish engulfing candle. No rejection, no trade. What I'm Watching Next Reject 112.60-112.90 and 112.15 is first. 112.15 breaks and 111.75, the top of the old box, is next. 111.75 breaks and 111.00, the middle of the range, is on the cards. How I'm Looking To Trade It Aggressive: sell a 1H rejection inside 112.60-112.90, entry around 112.75. Stop above 113.15, over the September high. Take something off the table at 111.75 and trail the rest towards 111.00. Conservative: wait for the fake-out. If price spikes above 112.90 and the 4H closes back below it, sell there with the stop above the spike high. Same targets. From 112.75 that's about 40 pips of risk for 100 pips to the first target and 175 to the second. Roughly 1:2.5 and 1:4.4. What changes my mind: A daily close above 113.00. That says the breakout is real, and 113.50-113.90 where the weekly MAs sit is open. If that happens the short is off the table and I'd rather wait than force it. Does this mean I'm bearish CADJPY long term? Not really. The three-week base was constructive. This is a level to sell, not a trend call. There is the possibility that I am wrong :) What are you seeing on CADJPY: a rejection at the September ceiling, or a clean break towards 113.50? Not financial advice, just how I'm looking at it.