黄瑞黎, RIN HINDRYATI2026年10月20日雅加达早高峰时段的通勤人群。处于弱势地位的中产阶级规模持续缩小。 Ulet Ifansasti for The New York TimesNovri Putra graduated from college in Jakarta last year with a degree in information technology and a modest ambition: a stable job.去年，诺维·普特拉在雅加达的一所大学毕业，获得信息技术学位，心中怀揣着一个朴素的愿望：找到一份稳定的工作。He had every reason to believe that he was on track. When he entered college in 2018, Indonesia’s economy was flourishing. Its tech sector was booming and demand for software engineers was surging.他完全有理由相信自己正朝着这个目标稳步前进。2018年他进入大学时，印尼经济繁荣，科技行业蓬勃发展，对软件工程师的需求激增。Those days are over. Today, Mr. Novri, 28, works for a tech company — not as a web developer, as he had hoped, but as a motorcycle taxi driver making about $220 a month.那些日子已经结束。如今，28岁的诺维在一家科技公司工作——不是他希望的网络开发者，而是摩托车出租车司机，每月收入约220美元。“My parents scold me almost every day,” Mr. Novri said. “Honestly, they probably feel a sense of shame that their child went to college and ended up as a motorcycle taxi driver.”“我父母几乎每天都会责备我，”诺维说。“老实说，他们大概觉得羞耻，自己的孩子上了大学，最后却成了摩托车出租车司机。”Mr. Novri’s predicament speaks to a greater malaise in Indonesia, where an economy once known for its stability is showing alarming signs of strain.诺维的困境反映了印尼更深层的困境。这个曾以稳定著称的经济体正显示出令人警觉的承压迹象。Like its Southeast Asian neighbors, Indonesia is struggling with the fallout from the war in Iran and American tariffs. Inflation is rising and fuel shortages are spreading across multiple cities. But government policies under President Prabowo Subianto are compounding its troubles, weakening institutions and raising doubts about the country’s economic management.与东南亚邻国一样，印尼正艰难应对伊朗战争和美国关税带来的冲击。通胀上升，燃料短缺正蔓延至多个城市。但总统普拉博沃·苏比延多领导下的政府政策正使问题雪上加霜，它削弱了制度，并引发对该国经济管理的怀疑。On Friday, the country was roiled after MSCI, an influential index provider, warned it could drop Indonesia from its benchmark indexes, which guide investment decisions by fund managers worldwide. The country’s stocks suffered their biggest one-day plunge since the 1998 Asian financial crisis, falling by more than 11 percent. On Monday, the selling continued with a 3.6 percent decline.周五，在有影响力的指数提供商明晟警告可能将印尼从其基准指数中剔除后，该国陷入动荡。这些基准指数是全球基金经理制定投资决策的重要参考。印尼股市遭遇自1998年亚洲金融危机以来最大单日暴跌，跌幅超过11%。周一，抛售继续，下跌3.6%。诺维·普特拉目前在一家科技公司工作，但并非像他曾经希望的那样担任网页开发员，而是当了一名摩托出租车司机。A decade ago, this country of nearly 290 million people was seen as a reliable safe haven as other emerging markets battled currency collapses and hyperinflation. Although it still reports strong economic growth, other indicators tell a different story.十年前，当其他新兴市场正饱受货币崩盘和恶性通胀之苦时，这个拥有近2.9亿人口的国家曾被视为可靠的安全港。尽管该国仍报告强劲经济增长，但其他指标却揭示了截然不同的状况。The number of people considered middle class has shrunk by about 19 percent from its peak. Lower-class savings rates have plummeted. Youth unemployment hovers around 17 percent, among the highest rates in Asia.被视为中产阶级的人数已较峰值缩减约19%。下层阶级储蓄率骤降。青年失业率徘徊在17%左右，是亚洲最高之一。Experts now warn that Indonesia is facing its most combustible moment since 1998, when an economic collapse forced the ouster of the former dictator Suharto.专家现在警告，印尼正面临自1998年以来最动荡的时刻。1998年，经济崩溃迫使前独裁者苏哈托下台。印度尼西亚的青年失业率约为17%，在亚洲各国中名列前茅。“It is a ticking time bomb,” said Ferry Latuhihin, the former chief economist at Bank International Indonesia who served on an expert council advising Mr. Prabowo before his administration took office.“这是一枚滴答作响的定时炸弹，”印尼国际银行前首席经济学家费里·拉图希欣说。他曾在普拉博沃政府上台前担任其专家委员会成员。“No one predicted in 1997 that Suharto would fall because of the malfunction of the economy,” he said. “The same story, I believe, might happen to this government.”“1997年没有人预测苏哈托会因经济失灵而下台，”他说。“我相信，同样的剧情可能会在这届政府身上重演。”Experts do not expect the market turmoil to spread to regional neighbors. Phillip Wool, head of research and portfolio management at Rayliant, an investment firm based in California that manages $17 billion in assets, said MSCI’s concerns were specific to Indonesia, which accounts for a small share of most emerging-markets investors’ portfolios.专家不认为市场动荡会蔓延至地区邻国。总部位于加利福尼亚、管理170亿美元资产的投资公司Rayliant的研究与投资组合管理主管菲利普·伍尔说，明晟的担忧是印尼特有的，而印尼在大多数新兴市场投资者投资组合中占比很小。“It’s a risk that’s really isolated to Indonesia,” he said.“这是一个真正仅限于印尼的风险，”他说。But the economic ripple effects may extend further. Indonesia is the world’s largest producer of palm oil, nickel and Barbie dolls and a major exporter of thermal coal, copper and natural gas. An economic crash could disrupt electric-vehicle production and drive up global prices for food, consumer goods and energy.但经济涟漪效应可能延伸得更远。印尼是世界最大的棕榈油、镍和芭比娃娃生产国，也是动力煤、铜和天然气的主要出口国。经济崩溃可能扰乱电动汽车生产，并推高全球食品、消费品和能源价格。8月在雅加达举行的一场抗议活动。一项研究发现，印尼中产阶级的萎缩与抗议活动频率的上升存在关联。A study in July led by Indonesia’s former finance minister found that the erosion of the middle class correlates with more frequent protests. In August 2025, demonstrations erupted nationwide over the death of a ride-sharing driver at a protest and rising unemployment and inflation.印尼前财政部长7月领导的一项研究发现，中产阶级的萎缩与抗议活动频发存在关联。2025年8月，一名网约车司机在抗议中死亡，加上失业和通胀上升，引发全国各地示威。Thomas Lembong, Indonesia’s former trade minister, warned that too many things are going wrong at once.印尼前贸易部长托马斯·伦邦警告说，目前有太多事情同时出错。“We’re getting closer and closer to the edge of the abyss,” he said.“我们正越来越接近深渊边缘，”他说。Stock Rout股市暴跌印度尼西亚总统普拉博沃·苏比延多正加大力度推行其民粹主义政策，这些政策不仅给该国预算带来压力，也令投资者感到担忧。Indonesia’s economic turmoil has revealed weaknesses that Mr. Prabowo’s policies have done little to address.印尼的经济动荡暴露了各种弱点，而普拉博沃的政策对此几乎无能为力。High oil prices and rising U.S. interest rates have drained dollars from Indonesia and put pressure on its currency, the rupiah. Indonesia is highly exposed because it relies heavily on imports of essential goods.高油价和美国利率上升使美元流出印尼，给该国货币印尼盾带来压力。由于印尼高度依赖必需品的进口，因此面临巨大风险。Yet Mr. Prabowo is doubling down on populist programs that are straining Indonesia’s budget and alarming investors. One example is a free-meal program for more than 80 million students, estimated to cost up to $30 billion a year.然而，普拉博沃正在大力推进民粹项目，这些项目使印尼预算承压，并令投资者不安。一个例子是为8000多万学生提供的免费餐计划，估计每年耗资高达300亿美元。Harris Turino, an opposition lawmaker, said that suspending the program for just three days would free up enough money to pay college fees for 20,000 students for a decade.反对派议员哈里斯·图里诺说，仅暂停该计划三天，就能腾出足够资金，为2万名学生支付十年大学学费。Investors are also questioning the Prabowo government’s transparency. A former general and Suharto’s former son-in-law, Mr. Prabowo has moved to nationalize assets and use a newly established sovereign wealth fund to advance his agenda.投资者还质疑普拉博沃政府的透明度。作为前将军兼苏哈托的前女婿，他已采取行动将资产国有化，并利用新成立的主权财富基金推进其议程。雅加达中央商务区的小贩们。该国通货膨胀率正在上升，多座城市正面临燃油短缺问题。MSCI cited “a lack of meaningful enforcement” against market manipulation for its warning on Thursday. The index provider said it had started consultations on whether to downgrade Indonesia’s market classification to the same category as countries facing international sanctions or prolonged economic turmoil.明晟周四警告时提到，对市场操纵“缺乏有意义的执法”。该指数提供商表示，已开始就是否将印尼的市场分类下调至与面临国际制裁或长期经济动荡的国家相同类别进行磋商。The message was clear: Indonesia was now considered an unreliable investment.信息很明确：印尼现在被视为不可靠的投资目的地。The MSCI announcement came after two credit ratings agencies, Moody’s and Fitch, downgraded Indonesia’s outlook to negative from stable earlier this year. Indonesia’s exchange has lost nearly 40 percent of its value this year, making it one of the world’s worst-performing stock markets. On Friday, the rupiah breached the psychologically important threshold of 18,000 to the dollar.在明晟宣布这一公告之前，穆迪和惠誉两家信用评级机构今年早些时候已将印尼的评级展望从稳定下调至负面。印尼交易所今年市值已缩水近40%，成为全球表现最差的股市之一。上周五，印尼盾跌破一美元兑18,000印尼盾这一重要心理关口。Last month, Mr. Prabowo bristled when reporters pressed him about the credit downgrades.上月，当记者追问信用评级下调问题时，普拉博沃显得十分不悦。“Are we really supposed to let a few people determine our rating? I mean, shouldn’t we be the ones deciding?” he said. “We are a sovereign country. How can people sitting far away, who know nothing about us, give us a rating?”“我们真的要让少数人决定我们的评级吗？我是说，不应该由我们自己决定吗？”他说。“我们是一个主权国家。坐在远方、对我们一无所知的人，怎么能给我们评级呢？”Sudden Departures突然离职许多印尼人表示，经济状况给人的感觉仿佛已经陷入衰退。Until the pandemic, international investors praised Indonesia for adhering to a strict fiscal deficit ceiling that kept government debt at around 30 percent of its economy. Its central bank was also regarded as independent and stable.直到疫情前，国际投资者一直称赞印尼遵守严格的财政赤字上限，使政府债务保持在经济规模的约30%。其央行也被视为独立而稳定。The sudden departures of key policymakers who helped build Indonesia’s reputation have unnerved investors. In September 2025, Mr. Prabowo removed Sri Mulyani, the finance minister seen as a steady hand under former President Joko Widodo. In July, the widely respected central bank governor abruptly resigned.帮助建立印尼声誉的关键政策制定者突然离职，令投资者不安。2025年9月，普拉博沃撤换了被视为前总统佐科·维多多时期稳健掌舵人的财政部长斯里·穆利亚尼。7月，广受尊敬的央行行长突然辞职。Economists are also questioning the reliability of Indonesia’s official statistics.经济学家还质疑印尼官方统计数据的可靠性。Capital Economics, an independent research firm, said faster growth in last year’s fourth quarter was “hard to square” with other data showing a weakening economy.独立研究公司凯投宏观表示，去年第四季度更快的增长“难以吻合”其他显示经济走弱的数据。On a recent Friday, Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, Indonesia’s finance minister, attributed the middle class’s plight to previous officials who, he said, had been content with economic growth of just 5 percent.最近的一个周五，印尼财政部长普尔巴亚·尤迪·萨德瓦将中产阶级的困境归咎于前任官员，称他们满足于仅5%的经济增长。街头小贩穆罕默德·法贾尔表示，他已向100多家公司投递了简历，但至今未收到任何回复。He said Moody’s and Fitch were swayed by “negative sentiment promoted by nongovernment parties,” rather than focusing on Indonesia’s growth and debt levels. He noted that S&P Global and a Chinese rating agency both gave Indonesia a stable outlook.他说，穆迪和惠誉受到“非政府方面推动的负面情绪”影响，而不是关注印尼的增长和债务水平。他指出，标普全球和一家中国评级机构都给予印尼“稳定”的展望。Mr. Purbaya said he met with MSCI officials in March. It was “useless, they didn’t believe me,” he said.普尔巴亚说，他3月会见了明晟官员。他说，那次会面“没用，他们不相信我”。“Not many people really understand what is happening in the economy, including those economists who used to criticize me,” he added. “The most important thing is that I can rebuff them by the real economic result.”“没有多少人真正理解经济正在发生什么，包括那些曾经批评过我的经济学家，”他还说。“最重要的是，我可以用真实经济成果驳斥他们。”He never got the chance. Three days after the interview, he was fired by phone without explanation. Hours later, Mr. Prabowo swore in Indonesia’s third finance minister in two years.但他从未得到机会。采访三天后，他被电话解职，没有解释。数小时后，普拉博沃宣誓任命了印尼两年内的第三位财政部长。Muktita Suhartono对本文有报道贡献。黄瑞黎(Sui-Lee Wee)是《纽约时报》亚洲商业记者。翻译：晋其角点击查看本文英文版。