US President Donald Trump reacts as he speaks at the Curtis D. Menard Memorial Sports Center in Wasilla, Alaska, US, October 13, 2026. (REUTERS)The 2026 midterm elections are still a few weeks away, but questions are already mounting over how the Trump administration could influence the vote. From claims of election fraud and federal investigations to the possible presence of immigration agents or troops near polling stations, several scenarios could test the country’s democratic safeguards.A Reuters investigation outlines nine potential flashpoints, drawing on interviews with election officials, lawyers and voting experts. These are not predictions, but risks that could shape how Americans vote and how results are accepted. 123456789EXPRESS INFOGENIEUS midterms 2026: 9 ways Trump could interfere with the electionNine possible flashpoints. One election. Control of Congress at stake.These are potential scenarios identified by a Reuters investigation, not nine events that have happened. The US Constitution gives states broad authority over election administration.MIDTERM ELECTIONS · NOVEMBER 2026THE STAKESCould the election be disrupted?Trump has made no secret of his desire to exert control over the midterms. Courts have already blocked many of his initiatives, and officials expect that to continue.NovemberElections that will decide control of the US Congress.50+Election officials, voting experts and election lawyers interviewed by Reuters.9Scenarios in which the administration could test the limits of federal authority.“We fix this now, or we lose our country.”White House spokesperson Lauren Bis. The White House says its goal is safeguarding election integrity and accuses Democrats of undermining confidence by opposing the SAVE America Act, which would require proof of citizenship to register and photo ID to vote.On record Reported factExpert view Legal expertsHypothetical Could happenCOUNTINGFRAUD CLAIM?RESULT CHALLENGED011SCENARIO 1 OF 9 ILLUSTRATION · NOT A REAL EVENTBEFORE AND AFTER THE VOTETrump alleges election fraud or compromised voting machinesTrump has repeatedly alleged fraud without evidence. In June he called California’s system “rigged” as his preferred candidates appeared headed for defeat. Some allies want voting machines banned in favour of hand counts.What could happen HypotheticalClaims of manipulated machines or fraudulent votes are used to challenge results or push for hand counts.The obstacle Expert viewExperts say hand counts are less efficient and less secure. Machines have known flaws, but there has been “no evidence those flaws have been exploited to alter votes”.Possible consequence CountingAllegations can spread quickly, even if later disproved, and provide fodder for challenges. CHANGE OR CANCEL RESULTS?022SCENARIO 2 OF 9 ILLUSTRATION · NOT A REAL EVENTBEFORE AND AFTER THE VOTEPressuring election officials to change or cancel resultsExperts point to 2020, when Trump asked Georgia’s secretary of state to “find 11,780 votes”, the margin needed to overturn his loss there. His lawyers and allies also pressed state lawmakers in Michigan, Arizona and Pennsylvania, according to the House January 6 committee.What could happen HypotheticalState or local officials come under pressure to alter, delay or cancel results.The obstacle On recordOfficials can refuse: Brad Raffensperger, a Republican, did in 2020. But officials who embrace claims that the 2020 election was stolen now hold at least one statewide office with election oversight in 20 states, up from 17 in the previous cycle.Possible consequence CertificationOfficials pushed to reject certified results or delay certification. WARRANT033SCENARIO 3 OF 9 ILLUSTRATION · NOT A REAL EVENTTHE BALLOTSSeizing ballots or voting equipmentWith a court-approved warrant or subpoena, federal agents could seize ballots, machines or records. In January, FBI agents seized hundreds of boxes of 2020 election records from Fulton County, Georgia.“This is the epitome of regular investigative practice.”Justice Department spokesperson Kiersten Pels, on the Fulton County searchWhat could happen HypotheticalSeizures break the chain of custody for ballots and equipment.The obstacle On recordSeizures need a court-approved warrant or subpoena; in Fulton County, a federal magistrate found probable cause. Former US Attorney Gary Restaino called the raid “off the wall”. Trump told The New York Times he should have ordered the National Guard to seize voting machines in swing states.Possible consequence CertificationDisrupted vote counts and delayed certification. OBSERVE ONLY?044SCENARIO 4 OF 9 ILLUSTRATION · NOT A REAL EVENTTHE BALLOTSFederal election monitors interfere with votingThe Justice Department plans to send 1,000 monitors, up from 590 in 2024. Monitors have traditionally checked compliance with civil rights and voting laws.“Nothing funky is happening and that people are able to vote.”Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon, on the monitors’ goal“We’re not going to allow them to do more than that.”Aghogho Edevbie, Michigan deputy secretary of stateWhat could happen HypotheticalMonitors go beyond their traditional role of observing.The obstacle On recordIn Laramie County, Wyoming, officials denied monitors’ requests to interview voters and inspect equipment. Michigan says monitors will be held to public observation rights.Possible consequence VotingLingering concerns over monitors’ actions, as in Wyoming.VOTEHEREHYPOTHETICAL055SCENARIO 5 OF 9 HYPOTHETICAL SCENE · NO DEPLOYMENT ANNOUNCEDOUTSIDE THE POLLSICE presence near polling sitesLegal experts say sending armed federal agents into polling places would likely violate federal law, though Immigration and Customs Enforcement could operate nearby.“If there is a threat to that polling place or we’re serving a warrant.”Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin, declining to rule out ICE activity at polling sitesWhat could happen HypotheticalImmigration agents operate close to voting sites.The obstacle Expert viewFederal law likely bars armed federal agents at polling places. The Department of Homeland Security says ICE is not planning operations that target polling locations.Possible consequence VotingImmigration enforcement entangled with election administration, which could depress turnout.INSURRECTION ACT?MILITARY: “NO PLANS”066SCENARIO 6 OF 9 HYPOTHETICAL SCENE · NO DEPLOYMENT ANNOUNCEDOUTSIDE THE POLLSTroops at polling placesTrump could invoke the Insurrection Act, an exception to the law that bars the military from domestic law enforcement, citing claims of interference or noncitizen voting.“Do anything necessary to make sure we have honest elections.”Trump, to PBSWhat could happen HypotheticalThe Insurrection Act is invoked around the election.The obstacle Expert viewLegal experts say other federal laws still bar troops from polling places, from interfering with elections and from intimidating voters. In an August letter, Gen. Dan Caine said the military had “no plans” to send troops to polling places or seize election materials.Possible consequence VotingDepressed turnout and immediate legal challenges.NATIONAL EMERGENCY? 077SCENARIO 7 OF 9 ILLUSTRATION · NOT A REAL EVENTFEDERAL POWEREmergency declarationSome allies have urged Trump to declare a national emergency over alleged fraud or foreign interference, arguing it could justify federal involvement in counting votes, including hand counts.“I don’t rule anything out or in.”Trump, to Time, in OctoberWhat could happen HypotheticalA national emergency is declared over the election.The obstacle Expert viewMany legal experts say a declaration would not give the president constitutional authority to take over elections, which are largely a state responsibility.Possible consequence CountingConfusion, litigation and delays in certifying results. SUBPOENAS AND DOCUMENT DEMANDS088SCENARIO 8 OF 9 ILLUSTRATION · NOT A REAL EVENTFEDERAL POWERFederal investigations and charges against election officialsIn July, the Justice Department wrote to every state’s chief election official, warning that administrators could be prosecuted for knowingly letting noncitizens vote or failing to remove them from voter rolls. Officials from both parties called the warnings “baseless intimidation”.“This is not about administrative errors; it’s about knowing failures to act.”Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon“You can stop threatening your friends in Idaho.”James Craig, Idaho’s Republican attorney general’s officeWhat could happen HypotheticalInvestigations, subpoenas or charges target election administrators.The obstacle Expert viewEven without charges, responding to subpoenas and document demands could consume the time and resources of already stretched election offices.Possible consequence CountingStrained election offices. SEAT UNFILLED? COURT099SCENARIO 9 OF 9 ILLUSTRATION · NOT A REAL EVENTAFTER THE VOTECongress refuses to seat election winnersTrump could press House Speaker Mike Johnson to use procedural moves to delay or challenge the seating of Democratic winners in close races. One scenario: replacing the House clerk with a Trump ally who delays recognising them.What could happen HypotheticalCertified Democratic winners are kept from taking their seats.The obstacle Expert viewMany scholars say the clerk has a statutory duty to recognise candidates certified by states, and courts would likely step in. Most legal scholars consider outright refusal unlikely. Johnson’s spokesperson, Taylor Haulsee, called such scenarios speculative.Possible consequence SeatingSeats left unfilled when the new Congress convenes on January 3. In a narrowly divided House, even a few could influence the election of the speaker.123456789 ?THE BIGGER RISKCould the disputes undermine trust?The greatest risk may not be any single intervention changing an election outcome, but a series of investigations, legal challenges and disputes that could disrupt certification of the results.That is how many officials and experts interviewed by Reuters see it: such disputes could disrupt certification and erode public trust.THE ANSWERWho decides the result?Reuters describes the safeguards states rely on:Voting machines are tested before elections, usually in public, and secured with tamper-evident seals.Mail-in ballots are protected by surveillance, two-person handling and tracking records.Nearly all votes cast in the US, 98%, generate a paper record that can be used to check electronic totals, according to the Brennan Center.Source: Reuters special report, October 14, 2026. The nine scenarios, their order, quotes and expert assessments are Reuters’ reporting. Illustrations are schematic and do not depict real events or deployments.Express InfoGenIECreated by Aniruddha Dhar The Express Global Desk at indianexpress.com which delivers authoritative, verified, and context-driven coverage of key international developments shaping global politics, policy, and migration trends. The desk focuses on stories with direct relevance for Indian and global audiences, combining breaking news with in-depth explainers and analysis. A major focus area of the desk is US immigration and visa policy, including developments related to student visas, work permits, permanent residency pathways, executive actions, and court rulings. The Global Desk also closely tracks Canada’s immigration, visa, and study policies, covering changes to study permits, post-study work options, permanent residence programmes, and regulatory updates affecting migrants and international students. 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