For oil, the headline risk cuts both ways. Any credible move toward a Ukraine settlement would typically trim the risk premium tied to Russian supply, but the summit is unconfirmed and energy experts see the Iran war, not Russia, as the main driver of diesel prices, so the US diesel deal is unlikely to ease product markets much. Ukraine’s strike on a St Petersburg oil terminal and continued pressure on Russian refineries keep product supply risk alive in the near term. A softer US sanctions stance on Russia is a modest bearish factor for crude over time if it allows more Russian barrels to flow freely. For the Australian dollar, any sign of reduced great-power tension on Chinese soil would be mildly supportive for risk sentiment, though the effect is likely small until a meeting is confirmed.---Earlier:Oil dips as Trump waives Russia energy sanctions, offsetting Hormuz tanker blast---Putin is trying to turn a warming relationship with Trump into a great-power deal on Ukraine without Kyiv at the table, but with no US commitment and Beijing wary of the fallout, it remains a proposal rather than a plan.Summary:Putin has proposed a three-way meeting with Trump and Xi to discuss Ukraine, reportedly on the sidelines of the November 18-19 APEC summit in ShenzhenThe Kremlin confirmed discussions but said there is no clear agreement on the meeting or its agendaA senior US official said Trump has not agreed, though he could be receptive given his pledge to end the warThe idea was raised in an October 9 call that also produced a deal for the US to buy and help market Russian dieselTrump paused sanctions on Russia due under a recently signed law and has stepped up criticism of ZelenskyChina reportedly would not object if Trump joins, but Beijing worries about overshadowing APEC and straining ties with EuropeRussian President Vladimir Putin has proposed a three-way meeting with US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping next month to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, a format that would exclude Kyiv and that people familiar with the talks say is designed to secure terms favourable to Moscow, the Wall Street Journal (gated) reported.Putin raised the idea during an October 9 phone call with Trump, according to a former Russian intelligence officer briefed on the matter. The same call produced an agreement for the US to buy Russian diesel and help sell it on global markets. The Kremlin has suggested holding the talks on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen on November 18 and 19.What is confirmed is limited. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov acknowledged that discussions about a possible meeting are under way but said there is no clear understanding yet on whether it will happen or what it would cover. A senior US official said Trump has not agreed to a summit, although the president could be open to it given his promise to end the conflict, which is now in its fourth year. Beijing has reportedly signalled it would not object if Trump takes part.The proposal comes as relations between Washington and Moscow have warmed noticeably. Trump paused sanctions on Russia on Friday that were due under a bipartisan law he signed last month, a move that drew criticism from lawmakers including some allies. He has also stepped up pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, demanding an end to strikes on Russian refineries after Ukraine hit an oil terminal in St Petersburg on Sunday.The diesel deal is aimed at easing fuel prices that have weighed on the US economy ahead of the midterm elections. Energy experts, however, broadly view the Iran war as the main driver of higher diesel prices and expect the Russian volumes to have little market impact.For Xi, hosting such talks would bolster China’s push to be seen as a global power broker, but it carries risks. Chinese officials worry a sideshow could overshadow APEC and strain economic ties with Europe, which is already wary of Beijing’s closeness to Moscow. Analysts also note that the image of three leaders negotiating over Ukraine’s future without Ukraine present could deepen concern in Taiwan.The next markers are whether the White House formally responds and whether a meeting appears on the APEC schedule. A firm US commitment would represent a major shift in Western diplomacy on Ukraine, while a refusal would leave the existing US-led peace effort, which has largely stalled, as the only active track. These two easily run rings arounf you-know-who. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.