GBPJPY MONTHLY CHARTBritish Pound vs Japanese YenPEPPERSTONE:GBPJPYShavyfxhubGBPJPY Monthly Chart Analysis – Shavyfxhub Strategy Chart Structure Overview Major Supply Roof / SSL: 250.298 (near the 2007 Head & Shoulders top / SSL) Neckline 2007: 239.290 Monthly Supply Roof: 219.255 – 212.680 Key Demand Floors: 202.617 (monthly demand floor) 176.054 147.668 (major long-term demand) Current Bias: Long-term structure remains bullish while price holds above the rising channel and the 176–202 demand zone. A break above 219–220 opens the path toward the 239–250 Supply Roof zone. 1-Detailed Course of the GBPJPY Drop (2007–2009) 2007 Peak,Head & Shoulders top formed,High near 250+,Strong risk-on + positive carry Aug–Oct 2007,First major stress (subprime fears),Sharp drop begins,Early carry trade stress 2008 (pre-Lehman),Gradual decline + volatility,Fell toward 180–190 area,Narrowing rate differentials Sept–Oct 2008 (Lehman),Violent collapse,Crashed from ~190 to below 150,Massive yen carry trade unwind Late 2008 – Early 2009,Continued selling pressure,Bottomed near 120–130 area,Extreme risk-off + BoE rate cuts 2-Key Reasons for the Crash: Yen Carry Trade Unwind: Traders had borrowed cheap yen (BoJ rates near 0.5%) to buy higher-yielding assets (including GBP). When risk aversion exploded, they rushed to close positions → strong yen buying. Interest Rate Differential Collapse: BoE cut Bank Rate aggressively from 5.50% (end-2007) down to 2.00% by end-2008 and eventually to 0.50%. BoJ also cut to 0.10%. Risk-Off Flight to Yen: Yen acted as a funding and safe-haven currency during the Global Financial Crisis. Result: One of the largest multi-month declines in GBPJPY history. 3-Current Interest Rates, Bond Yields & Carry Trade BoE Bank Rate,3.75% BoJ Policy Rate,1.00% Interest Rate Differential,UK higher by ~2.75% UK 10Y Gilt Yield,~5.05% – 5.08% Japan 10Y Yield,~2.79% – 2.80% Bond Yield Differential,UK higher by ~2.25% – 2.30% Carry Trade Status: Still clearly favors Long GBP / Short JPY. The differential remains supportive (unlike the 2007–2009 collapse when differentials narrowed sharply and carry became unattractive). 4-Heads of the Central Banks Bank of England: Andrew Bailey Bank of Japan: Kazuo Ueda 5-Upcoming Economic Dockets (Key Meetings) Central Bank,Next Meeting Bank of England,17 September 2026 Bank of Japan,17–18 September 2026 Both central banks meet in mid-September — this will be an important dual event for GBPJPY. Summary: The long-term structure is still constructive above major demand floors, but the 2007–2009 history shows how quickly GBPJPY can reverse when carry trades unwind and risk-off hits. Currently the rate and yield differentials still support the pound, but any sharp shift from the BoJ (faster hikes) or a major risk-off event remains the main threat. STRUCTURE NEVER LIES,HISTORY NEVER LIES