ESHE NELSON2026年8月4日When the Japanese yen recently hit its weakest level against the U.S. dollar in about 40 years, it wasn’t just a problem for the government in Tokyo. It was also a problem for the United States.近期，日元兑美元汇率跌至约40年来的最低水平，这不仅是东京政府的麻烦，也是美国的麻烦。The U.S. Treasury Department last week took a rare step to help prop up the yen, reinforcing the Japanese currency’s global significance and the trouble it can cause across borders. The United States and Japan share deep economic and financial ties. Japan’s large holdings of U.S. Treasuries, stocks and other assets — nearly $3 trillion in all — mean that turmoil in Japan can ripple through U.S. markets and beyond.上周，美国财政部采取罕见行动，帮助支撑日元汇率，这既凸显了日元这一全球重要货币的地位，也表明它可能引发跨境连锁效应的风险。美国和日本之间存在着深厚的经济和金融联系。日本持有大量美国国债、股票及其他资产，总额接近3万亿美元，这意味着日本发生的金融动荡可能波及美国市场乃至全球金融体系。Here’s why what happens to the yen matters to the United States.以下是日元走势牵动美国利益的原因所在。Tight Financial Ties紧密的金融联系The U.S. intervention added financial heft to the effort of Japanese officials, who had already spent tens of billions of dollars this year trying to boost the yen. So far, Japan’s interventions have had limited effect and raised the prospect that Japan might sell significant portions of its large pile of U.S. Treasuries to fund further intervention. Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, with more than $1.1 trillion in holdings.美国的干预行动为日本官员的努力增添了金融层面的支持，日本今年已经动用了数百亿美元试图提振日元。迄今为止，日本的干预效果有限，并引发了一种可能：日本或许会出售持有的巨额美国国债中的相当一部分，以筹集资金进行进一步干预。日本是美债最大海外持有国，规模超过1.1万亿美元。By selling Treasuries, Japan could push down their price — and that could ultimately raise borrowing costs for the U.S. government. Already, the yield on U.S. Treasuries have climbed in recent weeks on concerns about inflation. Last week, the yield on 30-year U.S. bonds hit their highest level since 2007.一旦日本大规模抛售美国国债，将压低其价格，最终可能推高美国政府的借贷成本。受通胀忧虑驱动，美国国债收益率近几周来已持续攀升。上周，美国30年期国债收益率升至2007年以来的最高水平。Moves in the yen also influence other Asian currencies, such as the South Korean won. So supporting the yen can reduce the risk that other Asian countries would come under intense pressure and need to sell their own dollar reserves to prop up their currencies.日元的走势还会波及韩元等其他亚洲货币。因此，支撑日元有助于降低其他亚洲国家陷入严峻压力、被迫动用美元储备来捍卫本币汇率的风险。“For Washington, supporting the yen is relatively low-cost insurance,” John Bromhead, and economist at Moody’s Analytics in Sydney, wrote in a note.悉尼穆迪分析公司的经济学家约翰·布罗姆黑德在一份报告中写道：“对华盛顿而言，支撑日元是一种成本相对较低的保险措施。”This was not the first time this year that volatility in Japan’s markets caught the attention of U.S. officials. In January, the Treasury Department considered an intervention in the yen after Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, blamed a rise in Japanese bond yields for driving up U.S. government borrowing costs.这并非今年日本市场波动首次引起美国官员的关注。今年1月，财长斯科特·贝森特指责日本国债收益率上升推高美国政府借贷成本后，美国财政部曾考虑对日元进行干预。Critical Trade Flows关键的贸易流向The flip side of a weak yen is a strong U.S. dollar, which can hurt American exporters by making their goods more expensive for foreign buyers. And that could give Japanese exporters a competitive advantage in the United States. Last year, the U.S. imported $146 billion worth of goods from Japan, and exported about $82 billion, according to data from the Office of the United States Trade Representative.日元疲软的另一面是美元走强，这会使美国出口商品对外国买家而言更加昂贵，从而损害美国出口商的利益。同时，这也可能让日本出口商在美国市场获得竞争优势。根据美国贸易代表办公室的数据，去年美国从日本进口了价值1460亿美元的商品，对日出口约820亿美元。It’s not clear how effective the intervention in the yen will be, even with the help of the U.S. government. A fundamental reason the Japanese yen has sunk so much are investors’ concerns about Japan’s fiscal condition — a heavy debt load and the government’s promotion of tax cuts and spending. The country’s gross debt is more than twice the size of its economy, by far the largest debt burden of any major advanced economy.即便有美国政府的协助，此次对日元的干预能否奏效仍是未知数。日元大幅贬值的根本原因在于投资者对日本财政状况的忧虑——债务负担沉重，而政府又在推动减税和增加支出。日本的总体债务规模已超过其经济体量的两倍，在主要发达经济体中高居榜首。The pressure on Japanese finances is growing. Borrowing costs are rising as Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s prime minister, is seeking to help businesses and households with the high cost of living. That includes energy costs, which have risen from disruptions created by the war in Iran, prompting speculation of more government spending and further weakening the yen.日本的财政压力正在加剧。随着日本首相高市早苗试图帮助企业和家庭应对生活成本上涨，借贷成本也在上升，这其中包括因伊朗战争导致的供应中断而上涨的能源成本，由此引发了市场对政府将进一步增加支出的猜测，进而加剧了日元的贬值压力。由于日本持有大量美国国债，日元走弱加剧了外界对全球金融市场溢出效应的担忧Connected Markets市场联动效应Mounting inflation encouraged the Japanese central bank to raise interest rates to 1 percent in June, the highest level in 31 years. For years, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates extremely low, even below zero, by purchasing vast volumes of government bonds. The goal was to stimulate growth. Policymakers have started to slowly push rates higher.通胀持续上升促使日本央行于6月将利率上调至1%，创31年来新高。多年来，日本央行通过大规模购买政府债券将利率压至极低水平，甚至维持在零以下，目的是刺激经济增长。如今，政策制定者已开始缓慢推高利率。But analysts argue that the weakness in the yen will persist as long as Japanese interest rates remain so much lower than those in the United States, where the Federal Reserve has held rates between 3.5 percent and 3.75 percent. Though the Fed hasn’t moved rates this year, growing dissent among policymakers is increasing pressure on the central bank to raise rates. That could widen the gap with Japan’s rates even more.但分析人士认为，只要日本利率仍然远低于美国，日元的疲软就会持续下去。美联储目前将利率维持在3.5%至3.75%之间。尽管该机构今年尚未调整利率，但政策制定者内部日益加剧的分歧正在增加央行加息的压力。如果美国加息，美日之间的利率差距可能进一步扩大。Last week, the Bank of Japan kept rates steady but traders are betting officials will raise interest rates again later this year. Paradoxically, higher Japanese interest rates could also blow back on the United States, as it would make Japanese assets more attractive for some investors and deter them from U.S. assets.上周，日本央行维持利率不变，但交易员普遍押注日本官员将在今年晚些时候再次加息。矛盾的是，日本利率上升也可能反过来冲击美国，因为这会使日本资产对部分投资者更具吸引力，从而降低他们投资美国资产的意愿。Japan’s large investments in the United States extend beyond Treasuries, with nearly $1.2 trillion in equities and more than $300 billion in corporate debt last year, according to U.S. Treasury data.根据美国财政部的数据，日本在美国的投资远不止国债，截至去年还包括近1.2万亿美元的股票和超过3000亿美元的公司债券。日本央行行长植田和男在央行总部，摄于上周。Bound Together紧密相连The dollar is indisputably the world’s most powerful currency and sits on one side of 90 percent of nearly all foreign currency exchange trades. The yen is also a significant player. It is the third most traded currency, after the euro. Its share of global trades is notably ahead of the British pound, Swiss franc and Chinese renminbi, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements.美元无疑是世界上最强大的货币，全球近90%的外汇交易涉及美元。日元同样举足轻重，是仅次于欧元的全球第三大交易货币。根据国际清算银行的数据，日元在全球交易中的份额明显领先于英镑、瑞士法郎和人民币。Mr. Bessent and Satsuki Katayama, the Japanese finance minister, have both said that further action to bolster the yen is possible if needed. On Monday, the yen hit 157 to the dollar, the strongest level since early May.贝森特和日本财务大臣片山皋月均表示，如有必要，不排除采取进一步措施提振日元。周一，日元兑美元汇率升至157日元兑1美元，为5月初以来的最强表现。“The Japanese Ministry of Finance remains attentive and in close communication with our counterparts at the U.S. Treasury,” Ms. Katayama said in a statement. “We will not hesitate to conduct further joint intervention.”“日本财务省将继续密切关注局势，并与美国财政部保持紧密沟通，”片山皋月在声明中表示。“如有必要，我们将毫不犹豫地进行进一步的联合干预。”Eshe Nelson是《纽约时报》驻伦敦记者，报道经济和商业新闻。翻译：杜然点击查看本文英文版。