Why Prashant Kishor’s Bankipur win may force Opposition into a rethink

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Even as they basked in the BJP’s defeat in the Bankipur Assembly bypoll at the hands of Prashant Kishor, senior INDIA bloc leaders felt the outcome had political messages and signals not just for the government but also the Opposition.This comes close on the heels of a youth movement against paper leaks that has given the political establishment — ruling and Opposition alike — food for thought and months after Tamil Nadu witnessed the dawn of a new political era with C Joseph Vijay’s TVK ending the political dominance of Dravidian majors DMK and AIADMK.AdvertisementThe Opposition found itself in an awkward situation on Monday. Parties, particularly the non-Congress and non-RJD ones, cheered the BJP losing in its national president’s bastion after three decades even while noting the fact that the electorate in Bankipur, in the heart of Patna, did not prefer the RJD as an alternative to the BJP. Opposition leaders felt the youth-led protest played a role in the defeat of the BJP among other local factors, including upper-caste anger against it.Read | Why bypoll results are bad news for BJP, but not good news for OppositionView in INDIA blocIn the INDIA bloc, parties read the electoral message to the Opposition differently. Some leaders saw a common thread in the success of the youth-led protest, Vijay’s win in Tamil Nadu, and Bankipur — fatigue with the existing political order and an appetite to experiment and usher in change. Many others felt an Assembly by-poll victory should not be seen as a tectonic shift. They argue there were local factors at play.AdvertisementSections of the Congress and the RJD read the electoral message differently. For instance, a large section of the Congress leaders in Bihar felt it was time the party severed its ties with the RJD, which they believe will never be able to shake off the “jungle raj” baggage. They apprehend Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party could slowly chip away at the RJD vote bank, especially Muslims who prefer to support candidates and parties that can defeat the BJP. RJD leaders said the party cannot afford to cede its place as the principal challenger to the BJP in Bihar. The RJD saw massive erosion in its votes, with its candidate polling a little over 14,000 votes.“Bankipur has never been an RJD seat. We have not won the seat since 1995. And a bypoll has a different character and an Assembly election has a different character. Nevertheless, there is a message for us also. We have got the message. We will do course correction. We will ensure that we are alert and alive to issues on the ground,” a senior RJD leader said.At the same time, several senior Bihar Congress leaders said it was time the party charted a separate course.you may likeAlso Read | Battle for Bankipur: PK eyes upset on new BJP chief’s turf“There was upper-caste anger against the BJP, resentment over the UGC’s equity regulations, then came Bharat Bhushan Tiwari’s encounter, and the appointment of Samrat Choudhary as Chief Minister also did not go down well with the BJP’s upper-caste vote bank. They tolerated Nitish Kumar as Chief Minister but perhaps could not accept Samrat. But the JD(U) will never allow the BJP to appoint an upper caste as CM. So, it is an opportune time for the Congress to break ties with the RJD and reach out to the upper castes, which were our traditional vote bank. Muslims already know that the Congress is the only party that can replace the BJP at the national level,” a senior Congress leader said.While Congress leaders viewed the Bankipur result solely from the prism of Bihar, several other Opposition leaders speculated about possible scenarios. “What if Prashant Kishor and the Cockroach Janta Party come together? The CJP is not a political party now, but it can become one tomorrow,” one leader said.Another leader said the defeat could have implications more than political. “The BJP is definitely on the backfoot. And if there is a sense that the wind is shifting, and we can create such a perception, there will be outcomes … Institutions, which are now acting in a biased fashion, could take note; the corporates who back the BJP wholeheartedly could do some balancing. The BJP, which rules with a heavier hand than ever before, itself will realise that there was a need for a course correction.”