The Week in Review: Renegade Closes Fast, but Can He Last at 10 Furlongs?

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Renegade (Into Mischief) delivered a half-length victory in the GII Jim Dandy Stakes Saturday, and while his 98 Beyer Speed Figure and win over the Saratoga surface are positive attributes heading into the Aug. 29 GI Travers Stakes, the jury is still out on whether this hard-charging closer who finishes with an arresting visual flourish can excel beyond nine furlongs against deeper competition.Bettors got a slight (yet significant) bargain if they took Renegade's 1.36-1 odds over the favored 1.19-1 price on Commandment, with those two Triple Crown rivals completing an Into Mischief-sired exacta.Chip Honcho (Connect) was intent to make the lead inside of Silent Tactic (Tacitus) into the first turn of the nine-furlong Jim Dandy, while Renegade broke fluidly, but was allowed to settle into a comfortable position under Irad Ortiz Jr., which for this colt means spotting the leaders 10 or 12 lengths down the backside.Silent Tactic got first run on the faltering Chip Honcho at the five-sixteenths pole, but was immediately accosted by the stalking, blinkers-on Commandment.All the while Renegade–a homebred for Robert and Lawana Low owned in partnership with Repole Stable–was uncoiling from next-to-last in the five-horse field and building serious momentum, incrementally closing the gap while freewheeling into the lane.Commandment came over the top three-sixteenths out. But with Renegade looming and shifting course to his outside, Commandment's decent-enough move looked destined to be labeled “premature” even as Renegade still had four lengths to make up approaching the eighth pole.Renegade's ultra-confident body language and unmatched deep-stretch torque foretold the difference, and this Todd Pletcher trainee mowed down Commandment without any credible threat from the three remaining stragglers in the splintered field.Renegade's final time of 1:49.08 was the second-fastest Jim Dandy in the last decade, with only Epicenter's 1:48.99 in 2022 fractionally faster.That's noteworthy, considering the last five editions of the Jim Dandy have been won by either prior or eventual Eclipse Award recipients, including the 2-year-old champs Fierceness and Forte, the 3-year-old champs Sovereignty and Epicenter, plus Essential Quality, who was champion in both his juvenile and sophomore seasons.But in terms of Jim Dandy numbers, the one that stands out for Renegade is his final eighth, clocked in :12.25.All season long, Renegade's late-race prowess has been backed by fast-finishing fractions that have established him well ahead of his peers in that statistical category.In the Feb. 7 1 1/16-mile Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa, which was both Renegade's sophomore debut and maiden-breaking win (after having been DQ'd at Aqueduct in October), his final sixteenth after circling the field from way off the tailgate was timed in :5.97.For perspective, that ended up being the fastest among 19 points-awarding Derby prep stakes at that distance in 2025-26.In his following start, the Mar. 28 GI Arkansas Derby, after a couple of back-of-pack momentum stalls, Renegade blasted off five wide through the far turn and romped away with a devastating turn of foot, soaring home solo through a final furlong in :11.84.No other nine-furlong Derby qualifying prep in at least the last four years has produced a sub-12-second final furlong.Counting six other dirt graded stakes for 3-year-olds at 1 1/8 miles that have been run in 2026 since the Arkansas Derby (including three Grade I races–the Blue Grass, Santa Anita Derby and Haskell), Renegade's :12.25 final eighth in the Jim Dandy means he now owns the two fastest closing furlongs in nine-furlong stakes for sophomores this season.But is 1 1/8 miles Renegade's sweet spot, or the upper limit of his staying power?In his two losses at 1 1/4 miles–the GI Kentucky Derby and the GI Belmont Stakes–Renegade was in it to win it until the sixteenth pole, but got overtaken by Golden Tempo (Curlin) both times.Renegade's runner-up try in the Derby would have been good enough to win the first leg of the Triple Crown in most years, especially considering the trouble he overcame. Soon after breaking alertly from the historically disadvantageous inside post (now winless in 41 years), Renegade got crushed by chain-reaction crowding. Yet he recovered in unfazed fashion, settled near the back of the 18-horse pack, and rode the rail until Ortiz edged him out three-eighths from home.Renegade seemed poised to pounce, but Ortiz had to keep floating ever wider to extricate the colt from heavy traffic. Parked way out in the 10 path, he blasted off, then bumped repeatedly with a tiring rival between the three-sixteenths and eighth poles.Power-shifting into a higher gear to confront the on-rushing Golden Tempo, those two brushed in the final half-furlong, but Renegade was outkicked in the closing strides.The Belmont Stakes wasn't as much of an exclamation-point effort for Renegade, even though he did get more or less his preferred trip as the 1.75-1 favorite. He settled third from last, advanced inside while repeatedly splitting horses starting at the half-mile marker, then turned for home in the six path with both Golden Tempo and Commandment farther outside.Renegade appeared capable of surging to the front a furlong out. But by the sixteenth pole, both rivals had peeled off while Renegade came untethered, checking in third, 5 1/4 lengths behind Golden Tempo and Commandment.It's also legit to question the quality of competition in those races at 1 1/16 miles and 1 1/8 miles where Renegade finished phenomenally fast.The horses he beat in the Davis Stakes and Arkansas Derby have gone a collective 2-for-32 over the last six months.And in the Jim Dandy, Commandment was Renegade's only A-list peer. Silent Tactic and Chip Honcho have yet to win beyond the Grade III level. Asked and Answered (Tapit), last all the way around the track, is a seven-start maiden.A rematch with Golden Tempo in the Travers is likely, and the Oct. 31 GI Breeders' Cup Classic at Keeneland will be circled on Renegade's calendar if his connections hope to attain the sophomore divisional championship and/or Horse of the Year honors.But both of those stakes are at 10 furlongs, and the cast of characters will soon expand to include older horses.Renegade's best shot will be for his end-of-season run to match the pattern of his individual races: The plot will thicken, and his cadence must quicken.The post The Week in Review: Renegade Closes Fast, but Can He Last at 10 Furlongs? appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.