BTCUSD_2026-08-02_23-39-51.pngBitcoin all time history indexINDEX:BTCUSDYC_SopheakBTC – My Base Case for the Rest of This Bear Market After studying Bitcoin's previous mid-term bear markets (2018 and 2022), I noticed a recurring sequence that appears to be developing once again in 2026. This chart illustrates my highest-probability scenario, assuming the current cycle continues to respect historical market structure. My thesis: • February established the first major low of this bear market. • Late March / Early April produced the expected relief rally as price tested the Bull Market Support Band. • June swept below the February low, taking liquidity before recovering. • July / Early August delivered another relief rally, similar to what we saw in previous cycles. From here, my expectation is: A small rally into late August that fails to reclaim key resistance. Price then enters a period of low volatility and sideways consolidation, frustrating both bulls and bears through September and October. November becomes the most likely window for the final capitulation, where fear reaches its peak and the last weak hands are forced out. Once that final reset is complete, I expect Bitcoin to begin building a new base, with the next sustainable bull market potentially starting around Q1 2027. Why I think this is possible Both the 2018 and 2022 bear markets followed remarkably similar sequences: Initial major low Relief rally Liquidity sweep Second relief rally Weak final bounce Months of consolidation Final capitulation Bull Market Support Band reclaim New bull cycle History never repeats perfectly, but market psychology often does. Relief rallies, false hope, liquidity grabs, and final capitulation have been recurring characteristics of Bitcoin's major bear markets. I'm not claiming this is exactly how the market will unfold. If Bitcoin invalidates this structure by reclaiming key resistance and establishing higher highs, I'll happily adjust my outlook. Markets reward flexibility, not stubbornness. For now, this remains my base-case scenario until price proves otherwise. What do you think? Does the current structure resemble previous Bitcoin bear markets, or is this cycle fundamentally different?