The Big Picture: Where Is Gold Heading?XAU/USD Spot - GoldFX:XAUUSDchungngctHundreds—if not thousands—of news articles have been published over the past seven months. I tried to put all of them into one single chart. What were the major financial and geopolitical events during the first seven months of the year? Where is market sentiment today? Where is capital flowing? Have you noticed that people are becoming more cautious with their spending? I spent more than 48 hours doing just three things: Mapping out every major event. Organizing and connecting the information. Building potential market scenarios. All to answer four simple questions: Where are we in the current market cycle? Which scenario has the highest probability? What key signals should we watch for confirmation? How is capital likely to react once those signals appear? If you have about three minutes, I'd really appreciate your thoughts and feedback. A Hypothesis I'm Watching Closely Looking at the monthly chart, I noticed that the current market structure resembles what we saw during May–July 2025. Back then, the market spent roughly three months moving sideways before breaking into a major trend. At this stage, it's still just a research hypothesis, but I'm leaning toward the possibility that September could become a major turning point for the market. Why? The upcoming FOMC meeting. A potential Trump–Xi meeting. New developments in global tariffs. The U.S. political landscape ahead of the midterm elections. The ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict. Another Research Project I'm also working on another question that I find fascinating: How do financial markets typically behave before, during, and after U.S. midterm elections? Once I have enough historical data, I'll share the research with everyone. I've always believed that: "The shortest pencil is better than the longest memory." That's why I write down everything I observe, research, and learn. Writing helps me organize my thinking, test my hypotheses, and review my own decisions later—so I can understand where I was right and where I was wrong. This is still a work in progress, so I'd genuinely appreciate any comments or alternative perspectives. Note This analysis focuses on identifying the next major macro swing, not intraday trades. For day trading, I'll continue following my trading system and setups with discipline, without letting my macro bias interfere with execution.